NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, Dec. 19
Winslow Townson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown
NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 10 p.m. | ||
| 10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
There are only four games on the NBA slate today, but still plenty of NBA best today with expert picks. Our analysts have picks on three games, including a couple on the nationally televised games: Grizzlies vs. Pelicans and Celtics vs. Warriors.
Let's get to our NBA best bets today and expert picks for Tuesday, Dec. 19.
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Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
By Jim Turvey
Ja Morant returns on Tuesday for the Memphis Grizzlies, but the bad news is that the problems in Memphis run much deeper than just missing the face of their franchise.
The other bad news is he returns against one of the hottest teams in the league, a team that has reached its own health peak, and is running teams out of the gym ever since.
Morant will undoubtedly provide a jolt of energy to a moribund Memphis offense that currently ranks 27th in the league, per Dunks and Threes. The Grizzlies' offense averaged around 2.5 more points per 100 possessions with Morant on the court last season, but they also gave up more than three more points per 100 in those same splits.
This is not to say Morant is a net negative player, but rather that he comes with pros and cons. Especially in these first games back when he will be shaking off the rust.
And that's where the edge in this game comes in. Outside of a Morant return, I would make this Pelicans -9.5. So the opening line of Pelicans -6, implied the books either were way too short on the Pels, or are wayyyy too high on Morant. He's likely worth a couple points when he's back at full strength, but no way he's at 3.5 in his first game back.
Which is why I think this is also a case of the market not being up to date on the Pelicans. For the season as a whole, this line might make sense, but since they have had their near-full healthy lineup in tact the past few weeks, they have been on a tear. They are 6-1 with Trey Murphy III in the lineup, with the lone loss being the In-Season semis in which they were clearly just not ready for LeBron James and the Lakers.
I make this Pelicans -9.
Pick: Pelicans -8
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I talked about this play on Buckets, but I'm fading the Grizzlies in Ja Morant’s return in favor of the much deeper Pelicans. It's no secret that the Grizzlies have been struggling with injuries and they've had to cobbled together some interesting lineups to say the least — playing guys who are more G-League material than NBA.
Morant returning definitely helps the Grizzlies' depth in an especially thin back court, but his return won’t be enough against New Orleans — a team with more lineup versatility and that plays excellent basketball at home (10-3 ATS).
Even last year, when the Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the West, they were middle-of-the-pack on the road (16-25 straight up) despite losing just six of their 41 home games.
The Grizzlies are also on a back-to-back, losing 116-97 to the Thunder in a game that wasn’t as close as the double-digit final score would imply.
The line has currently moved and the best available number is -8, but if it comes back down, I would take the Pelicans at -7.5 or better.
Pick: Pelicans -7.5 or Better
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
Ja Morant is expected to make his season debut tonight (and I wrote about that at length in my Player Props Forecast), but the player I’m targeting has been here all along.
Desmond Bane has been incredible this season, averaging career highs in Usage and Scoring, but he has taken a slight hit to his efficiency. With Morant back, I would not be surprised to see if he saw an uptick in his 3s and returned to an over 40% shooter from deep.
He has been a significantly better catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter and with Morant back, he should see more of those opportunities as opposed to needing to create as much for himself with pull-ups.
This is also a great matchup against the Pelicans. They allow the second-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league and Bane has had success against them this season. In their prior matchup, Bane drained five 3s on 10 attempts.
While I won’t begrudge you if you want to take the base of over 2.5 a number he has cleared in 79% of games this season, I think there’s a bit more value on over 3.5 at (+165) given the matchup. Coming off a game where he just made 4 of 9, I like Bane to stay hot.
Pick: Desmond Bane Over 3.5 3-Pointers
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Spurs vs. Bucks
I don't know what the Spurs are doing at point guard, or in general, but Malaki Branham is suddenly a real important piece of this team's starting five, which wasn't the case to start the season.
Branham has gone over 11.5 points in three of his last four; the lone miss was exactly 11.
The Bucks still don't have a real perimeter defense solution, which is glaring out in different games. Against the Rockets on Sunday, every member of the opposing starting five scored at least 16 points. Against the Pistons, Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey went over and Marcus Sasser got 11 in 16 minutes off the bench. Against the Pacers, Aaron Nesmith and Ben Mathurin went over, and obviously Tyrese Haliburton did his thing.
My only concern is Branham is shooting 55/36/100 over his last four, and has gotten 13, 13, eight and eight shot attempts. So it's more of a bet on efficiency over volume, but he's shooting really well and should get good looks against the Bucks perimeter defense, even if the game gets out of hand early. Though it's obviously better if it doesn't until later.
Pick: Malaki Branham Over 11.5 Points
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Spurs vs. Bucks
By Joe Dellera
Damian Lillard has exceeded this line in 11 of his last 15 games averaging 3.4 in the 1Q. This is notable considering he averages 7.9 per game, so he’s tallying 43% of his dimes in the opening frame. He has consistently played the entire first quarter during these 15 games and did not prior to that.
This is an ultimate pace-up spot against a Spurs team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league, per Basketball Reference, and they have the seventh-worst Defensive Rating as well. Their interior defense will only get worse as they will be without Victor Wembanyama for this game. Without Welmbanyama on the floor, their defense is 9.6 points worse per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
This sets up well for Lillard to rack up some easy first quarter assists to Giannis Antetokounmpo. I like him to go over in the first quarter and this is a way for me to back Lillard in what could be a blowout.
Pick: Damian Lillard Over 2.5 1Q Assists
Celtics vs. Warriors
The Warriors will put their two-game winning streak to the test when they host the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night. Due to Draymond Green's suspension, it's all-hands-on-deck for Golden State, as head coach Steve Kerr isn't afraid to dip into his bench.
On Sunday, 10 players took the court for Golden State in a fairly competitive game.
Over their past three games, one player who's seen his usage increase is the 6-foot-4 first-year guard Brandin Podziemski. Podziemski averaged 33.3 minutes per game during that span and had two starts, with Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins coming off the bench with the second unit.
I suspect that Kerr likes the qualities Podziemski can bring defensively to his starting lineup. And while he's been able to post double figures in scoring in four of his past five games, his rebounding prop intrigues me the most.
Per TeamRankings, the Celtics sit second in 3-point attempts with 42.4 per game. Boston also ranks in the bottom-third in rebounds allowed to opposing shooting guards.
Even if this game gets away from the Warriors, Kerr will likely keep Podziemski on the floor to further his development as a rookie.
At PointsBet, you can grab Podziemski to go over his rebounding prop of 5.5 (-120). I would play this number to -130.
Pick: Brandin Podziemski Over 5.5 Rebounds
Celtics vs. Warriors
By Joe Dellera
The Boston Celtics have been an absolute wagon this season. They are 20-5 and sit atop the Eastern Conference with the league's best team in Adjusted Net Rating (+8.6), per Dunks and Threes. They are dominating on both sides of the floor with the fifth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (118.8) and second-best Adjusted Defensive Rating (110.2).
For this contest, they will be without Luke Kornet and Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is listed as questionable. Porzingis' presence would be great for the Celtics. He has been excellent this season and presents a matchup nightmare for the Warriors. Regardless, they should have enough firepower but Porzingis would be a plus.
The Warriors will continue to be without Draymond Green (suspension) and Gary Payton II (calf). They have also listed Chris Paul (illness) as questionable.
They have struggled to find a consistent winning formula this season. They are 12-14 and have a Net Rating of just +0.2, per Basketball Reference.
The concern with this is they have gotten torched by strong teams. They are just 4-8 on the season with a -2.6 Net Rating in games against the Top 10 teams in raw point differential, per Cleaning the Glass. Their offense has held up but they are allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions in those matchups.
One of the major issues for the Warriors has been a struggle to find consistent and strong lineups. Every primary starter (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Green, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney) have been posting negative point differentials. Now without Green and potentially without Paul, they face an elite Celtics team.
This is not a place to try and find your footing. I’ll back Boston to start their road trip strong and lay the points.
Pick: Celtics -5
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