Friday brings us another loaded schedule that features some important games for teams trying to keep pace in the standings, including Bulls vs. Hawks, Grizzlies vs. Knicks and Spurs vs. Nuggets.
With nine games to choose from, our NBA analysts are all aligned on the same matchup. They are betting one prop, the total and the spread in Wizards vs. Warriors.
Take a look their in-depth analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Brandon Anderson: For better or for worse, this Warriors season is inextricably linked to Kelly Oubre Jr. because Golden State really has no other option at this point. With James Wiseman up and down and a very unreliable bench, the Warriors continue to lean heavily on Oubre and Andrew Wiggins for big minutes in the starting lineup.
Throwing out that awful outlier 53-point loss to the Raptors when the game was over a couple seconds after the tip, Oubre is playing more than 34 minutes per game over the last two weeks, and his production has risen to the occasion with the Warriors struggling to find any help for Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
In those seven games, Oubre is averaging 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. He's scored at least 18 points in five of those seven outings, hitting this over in 71% of those games. Oubre has gone over 16.5 points in 22 games now this season. That's only 45% of his games, but the minutes here are key.
Oubre has 10 games this season under 26 minutes, and he scored in the single digits in seven of those games. But he's also played at least 33 minutes in 18 games, and that's the sort of minutes load Oubre has been getting lately.
In those 18 games, Oubre is averaging 21.0 PPG and he's gone over this line in 16 of the 18. That's an impressive 89% hit rate when Oubre gets to at least 33 minutes, something he's done four straight games other than that weird blowout.
Oubre should get the minutes tonight, and he'll have plenty of motivation against his old team, the Wizards. We're projecting him at 18.6 points, and I played this over at -110 but would go up to -130.
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Raheem Palmer: Yes, I know these are the top two teams in Pace this season — the Wizards are playing 104.46 possessions per game and the Golden State Warriors playing 103.02 — but this is a market and I believe that's been priced into the line.
From my view it's been overpriced. The Wizards are just 26th in Defensive Rating, allowing opposing teams to score 114.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass, but over the past two weeks they're seventh in Defensive Rating allowing just 108.3. Meanwhile, the Warriors actually have a top-10 Defense this year, allowing 112.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes.
The main case for this under is that despite playing a fast-paced game, neither of these teams are actually good offensively. Last night's Clippers/Suns game was a good example of a slow-paced game going under with both teams being efficient offensively as the Clippers put up a 127 Offensive Rating while the Suns scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions as the game featured just 88 possessions.
This game should be a fast-paced game with these teams not being as efficient. Even with Stephen Curry on the team, the Warriors are just 23rd in Offensive Rating (109) while Bradley Beal's league leading 31.2 points per game still isn't helping this team be a top tier offense as they're 21st in Offensive Rating this season (109.6).
While Curry and Beal are clearly two of the best offensive players in the league, they simply can't play every second of the game. The Warriors are scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor vs. 102.5 points with him off (+11.3). The Wizards are scoring a 114.2 points per 100 possessions with Beal on vs 102.4 with him off the floor (+11.8).
Beal is still dealing with a hip injury that caused him to miss five straight games and in his return against the Orlando Magic Wednesday night, he scored 21 points on 11-of-19 shooting. It's hard to believe that he's 100% and if he isn't, we could see a suppressed offensive output from this team.
With a total this high, every possession matters. Even with the top-two teams in Pace going head-to-head, the offenses struggle to score too much for me to ignore. My model makes this game 235 so with the market sitting at 239.5, I'm in it to win it on the under.
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Kenny Ducey: The Warriors have been absolute machines at home this season, going 15-9 straight up in the Bay, and have been at their strongest when favored at Chase Center. The Dubs are 7-3 against the spread in those games, per Bet Labs, by far the most profitable spot to bet them this year.
Now, it hasn’t been pretty lately. Golden State has won just two of nine. That said, injuries were to blame for most of the losses, and now that Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have healed, and James Wiseman is back to 100%, I think this team will go on a run here to see if it can push for a playoff spot.
Curry is in a great spot here against Russell Westbrook, who he has consistently played well against. In their last meeting back in the 2018-19 season, Curry hit five 3s en route to a 33-point night and a blowout 22-point win over the Thunder.
Westbrook's defense is suspect, and Curry — who is the entire offense right now for Golden State — should be able to take advantage. By the numbers, Washington’s defense hasn’t been horrible lately, but when you look at its offensively-inept opponents, you’d actually be disappointed with a rank right around of the middle of the league in defensive efficiency.
It doesn’t feel good laying points here against a Wizards team has excited us at times this year, but they really haven’t looked like a team that can give any decent opponent issues since mid-February. The Warriors should get back on track here. I'd play this to -5.
