NBA Expert Betting Picks (Monday, Feb. 3): Best Bets for 76ers vs. Heat, Timberwolves vs. Kings
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: De’Aaron Fox (5) of the Sacramento Kings.
There are 10 games on Monday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting on two specific matchups:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
- 10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
See the three bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Wob: 76ers at Heat
- Spread: Heat -2.5
- Over/Under: 212
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Have you ever heard of a place called LIV? It’s ground zero for what I like to call LIVorhea. It’s disease that affects the central nervous system of the human body causing the subject to perform their tasks the following day sluggishly and with apathy. Symptoms may also include seeing the sun rise.
The Philadelphia 76ers flew into Miami a day early to be in town for Super Bowl Sunday. You do the math.
I don’t care what the box scores or advanced analytics say, there is no PER in the world that can triumph LIVorhea. It is why the Miami Heat have the No. 1 home court advantage in the NBA regardless if the fans show up or not.
It has claimed teams victim significantly better than these 76ers and it will continue to do so for the rest of time, as long as Instagram influencers continue to get paid for selfies. There is no fault, we are all human. Lust is a natural trait consistent in us all the way back to Adam & Eve — if you believe in that sort of thing.
As a wise man once said: Bouncin’ in the club where the HEAT is on, all night on the beach till the break of dawn … Welcome to Miami.
The PICK: MIA -2.5
Brandon Anderson: 76ers at Heat
Let’s review. The 76ers are terrible on the road, like throwback to the days of Charles Barkley TURRIBLE on the road. Philly is now 9-17 on the road this season (8-17-1 against the spread), which is not very champion-like.
The Sixers were dominated in Boston on Saturday, in part because the short-handed Celtics are so good at home. Do you know who else is really good at home? The Heat! They are are 21-3 at home this season, including 16-7-1 ATS possibly just better than the Sixers anyway.
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons just spent Super Bowl weekend in Miami as Wob eloquently pointed out. Of course, Jimmy Butler did too. So actually, maybe let’s just go with the under on this one? Philly 15-11 to the under on the road, and The Action Network app alerts me that all three refs tonight favor the under, combining for 53 unders in 96 games. The under is already getting bet down quickly.
Want to play it safe? Just grab the Miami moneyline. But if you’re really all in, parlay the Miami -2.5 with the under and let’s ride this Super Bowl magic.
The PICK: Heat -2.5
John Ewing: Timberwolves at Kings
- Spread: Kings -1.5
- Over/Under: 226
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
The Kings and Timberwolves have been two of the best over teams since the calendar flipped to January. Combined the over has gone 20-10 (67%) in their games the last four weeks.
It is no wonder then that a majority of tickets are on Kings-Wolves over tonight. What might surprise casual bettors is that the total has decreased from 228 to 226.
When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action.
Historically, it has been profitable to follow reverse line movement when the total decreases.
Since 2005, gamblers following this system have gone 575-453-13 (56%) returning a profit of $9,746 for a $100 bettor.
Pros don’t always win, but being on the same side as smart money is a profitable long term strategy. Sharps are on the Kings-Wolves under tonight and the data suggests you should follow the line movement.
The PICK: Under 226