NBA Sharp Report: Warriors-Celtics Among 4 Saturday Games Drawing Smart Money
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving
- Warriors-Celtics is unsurprisingly the most heavily bet game on tap tonight, and sharps are taking part.
- Wiseguys have also located value on three other NBA games tonight, as evidenced by Sports Insights' Bet Signals.
While the NBA’s small, five-game slate may be overshadowed by today’s massive college hoops schedule, it does feature the most highly anticipated matchup of Saturday night … and sharps are biting.
In addition to Warriors-Celtics, wiseguys have hit three other NBA games Saturday with start times ranging from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans
6 p.m. ET | FS-SW
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 226.5 to 229)
In each of tonight’s five NBA games, the over has drawn the majority of bets. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, considering how much public bettors love rooting for points.
In this case, sharps will be right by their side.
Generally, 59% of bets wouldn’t be enough to drive a line up by 2.5 points (some books actually opened even lower than 226.5). But with two Sports Insights Bet Signals hitting the over, oddsmakers have followed their sharper customers and moved this total up to 229.
They’ve also been following the money. At the time of writing, the 60% of bets on the over has generated 72% of dollars wagered. While that creates a liability for sportsbooks, it more importantly reveals that bigger bets — ones more likely to be made by sharps — are on the over.
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET | FS-IN
Sharp angles: Pacers (moved from -4 to -5)
A similar story is unfolding on this point spread. While it’s been a popular play, drawing 64% of bettors, sharps seem to be among that majority.
Once again, those bets have driven a higher percentage of actual dollars (74%), meaning bigger bets are behind Indiana. The Pacers have also triggered four SI Bet Signals, though it’s worth noting that none have come beyond the opening line of -4.
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics
8:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Sharp angle: Celtics (moved from +1.5 to +3.5)
Looking at this line movement from its opening number, it’s certainly not obvious that sharps would be backing Boston. That’s why it’s important to check the complete line history of a game before judging the sharp side.
Seventy-nine percent of bets and 82% of dollars are behind the Warriors, which initially drove this line from -1.5 to -3.5, and even up to -4 at a few books.
That was too high, according to sharps.
Three Bet Signals have been triggered on the Celtics since that point, causing just about every book that reached +4 to drop the line to a consensus +3.5.
With this being the most heavily bet game of the night across all sports, it’s not too surprising to see oddsmakers reacting to their huge liability on Golden State. It does seem, though, that if they continue to increase this line, sharps will happily be jumping on the Celtics at an inflated number.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET | NBCS-PH
Sharp angles: Nuggets (moved from -9 to -10), Over (moved from 224.5 to 228.5)
With Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler both missing tonight’s game in Denver, the Sixers were moved to 9-point underdogs. That adjusted spread has bettors split on the matchup.
But despite 49% of bets landing on the Nuggets, they’ve moved up to -10 across the market. Two SI Bet Signals have hit Denver since the move to -9 — one at that number and another at -9.5.
That 49% backing of Denver has also made up for 72% of actual money, another indication of sharps laying the points.
One bet wasn’t quite enough for sharps in this one, however. They’ve also triggered two Bet Signals on the over, causing the total to rise four points from its opener.
Sixty-four percent of bets accounting for 79% of actual dollars are landing on the over.