Thursday NBA Player Props: How to Bet Myles Turner’s Assists, Anthony Davis’ Assists, More
Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Davis
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Today’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns: 4 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks: 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets: 9 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Pacers C Myles Turner
THE PICK: Over 1.5 assists (+190) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The Pacers get the matinee today, and all eyes will be on T.J. Warren and Devin Booker, who have been lighting things up so far in the bubble. You don’t exactly tune in to Indiana to watch Myles Turner pass, but that’s why we’re getting almost double our value here.
This has been Turner’s worst passing season since his rookie year at 1.1 APG, but he has 2 assists in each of Indiana’s last two games. Two is all we need here, and Turner has hit that number 18 times this season in 58 games, which is about right where these odds land us. But these odds aren’t accounting for the fact that Turner’s minutes have ticked up in the bubble with Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze out injured.
With Deandre Ayton on the other side, Indiana will need a lot from Turner. Time is money, and in this case, more opportunity for assists. We only need two. Our projections put Turner right at 1.5, which might seem dicey, but remember, we’re getting almost 2-to-1 here. Our Props tool rates this play a 10 out of 10, and I’ll play it as low as +150.
Clippers C Ivica Zubac
THE PICK: Over 1.5 assists (+185) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Yeah, we’re going to be sweating these out today. Zubac is having a career season, for whatever that’s worth, with career highs in minutes, rebounds, and assists per game. That latter number at 1.1 APG is on our mind here. Zubes had 3 dimes against the Pelicans but 0 and 1 his other bubble games. That’s slightly above his average but below this number.
Zubac has at least two assists in 20 of 67 games this year. Again, that’s slightly below our odds here. Heck, even our projections are slightly short at 1.4, which would put Zubac under here. But that’s where the odds come in!
The Clippers are without Patrick Beverley at point guard, so the offense should be slightly more egalitarian. This is also a very likely playoff preview, so expect the Clippers to go away from their stars earlier. That could mean more minutes for Zubac as well.
It’s a tenuous play, but we only need two! Our Props tool rates this one a 9, just behind Turner. We’ll play it down to +165.
Lakers C Anthony Davis
THE PICK: Over 2.5 assists (-162) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
We’re getting wild today and sweating out some big men passing props. Anthony Davis is the most talented man on our slate. Davis was a legitimate MVP and Defensive Player of the Year candidate this year. He’s known for blocking shots, filling the lane, and dunking on guys, but lately he’s seen his passing numbers rise a bit.
Davis averaged a career-high 3.9 assists per game last year with the Pelicans, and his 3.2 APG this year are his next best. With LeBron James taking a more muted role so far in the bubble, the Lakers have flowed through Davis, and his assists have risen with 4, 3, 4, and 5 so far. That’s a 4.0 APG average and over this number all four games.
Davis should have his way with Houston’s pint-sized lineup, and we can expect him to find a few open shooters or cutters when the Rockets blitz a second defender at him. I’ll play this one up to -180.