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NBA Roundtable: The Series Bets Our Experts Love, What to Make of the Warriors, More

Credit:

Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry and PJ Tucker

  • When is the right time to bet the Warriors? Which team is most likely to beat them? Are the Raptors undervalued against the 76ers?
  • Our NBA experts gathered together today to chat about these topics and more.

Earlier today, a bunch of our NBA experts were in our Slack channel discussing a bunch of NBA futures-related topics. Below is a transcript of our conversation, which has been lightly edited.

How to Bet the Warriors?

bryan.mears: Thoughts on the value of the Warriors to win the title? Around -150 currently

Wob: -300 to win the Rockets series still more valuable considerably

peter.jennings: I’m taking Rockets > Warriors assuming it happens

Wob: the payout on a championship ticket to be worth it over series -300 [vs. Rockets] needs to be +120

(-300) + (-900) + (-300) [is about even money] for their three remaining series on a parlay calculator, assuming NOTHING happens to the Warriors and everything goes as planned, which is a massive if

matt.moore: Me and Jennings against everyone in here

ken.barkley: I think the Warriors are the most likely team to win, but why would I bet that now?

they are like -20000000000000000000 to still beat the clippers, so it isn’t going to change

Wob: unless they hang +120 or better, it makes no sense [to bet the Warriors’ title odds] with a -300 series price [vs. the Rockets]

ken.barkley: to me, you’re sort of freerolling it

if you love it, hope the Clippers win Game 6

get an even better price

if they smash the Clippers it won’t change

matt.moore: gotta go fast, though; if they win Game 1 vs. Houston it’ll crater

ken.barkley: yeah, I mean you have a reasonable time window to make that bet, though

to me the damage to their image is done, regardless of what happens tonight, and those types of numbers will still be there pre-Houston Game 1

but I could be wrong

peter.jennings: Currently the odds are Clippers +2952 | Warriors -7500

matt.moore: I don’t find any joy, edge or confidence betting the Warriors game-by-game or series-by-series

ken.barkley: oh, I’m with you @matt.moore on game-to-game with them

I think it’s just calculating if rock bottom is this exact moment or not

ken.barkley: it’s also so weird, because if they do beat Houston, the next series is a borderline walk

matt.moore: I would just say I don’t have the confidence in them to lay what you have to lay with them

Wob: I don’t have anything on them yet, but I will if it’s actually -300 [vs. the Rockets]


Most Likely Team to Beat Golden State?

scott.miller: question: are the Rockets the most likely team remaining to beat GSW?

peter.jennings: Milwaukee or Houston

Toronto next imo

Boston 4th

Philly 5th

ken.barkley: Bucks then Rockets

matt.moore: I’d rank it 1. Houston 2. Milwaukee 3. Boston

bryan.mears: I think Bucks 😃

matt.moore: I only say the Rockets because the Warriors play like idiots against them

and the Warriors losing because of them playing like idiots seems like their most likely demise


Group Thoughts on 76ers/Raptors, Bucks/Celtics

peter.jennings: Thoughts on 76ers/Raptors?

Price is 76ers +212 | Raptors -255

peter.jennings: I love Toronto here

ken.barkley: agree, I have bet them already

scott.miller: hammer spot on Toronto

matt.moore: I’ll go one further: I think there’s value in Raptors in 5

scott.miller: 😱

ken.barkley: just annoying Anunoby won’t be back

Since I don’t think it would change the price hardly at all but I’d prefer it

Toronto Game 1s are like this inexplicable thing that I just have to believe in, so I’ll just say Raptors in 7

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Mike Scott injury is kind of a big deal; they just have less than zero depth

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard

bryan.mears: tbf wasn’t like Philly was a world-beater in Game 1

Wob: They don’t need OG; their bench is the army of Isengard

matt.moore: See, I don’t think their bench is very good, but Philly’s is worse

their bench was the best in the league last year

and then they had to lose Poeltl for Kawhi and Wright for Gasol

so now the bench is Norman Powell, who was out of rotation most of the year

plus FVV, who is always injured

plus Ibaka, who’s good but Ibaka

ken.barkley: is bruno caboclo still there

matt.moore: no, he is now Memphis’ franchise cornerstone

ken.barkley: look for him to have a key role, inside tip

matt.moore: Raptors in 5 is +325, Raptors in 6 is +410

ken.barkley: I think for all four East teams you almost have to forget the first round

it’s like the playoffs haven’t even started

aside from health/injury stuff of course

matt.moore: that’s one thing I wonder about: The Celtics have a lot of momentum from how they looked, and Indy WAS a tough opponent they destroyed

but Indy just had those lulls where the offense asphyxiated

ken.barkley: I mean I’ve said this 50 times, but I’ll say it again… Indiana had a pyth expectation of like a 38-win team without Victor Oladipo

I find very little impressive about Boston’s sweep

matt.moore: But there’s a lot of narrative push towards the Celtics because of how they handled that series. Which is why I thought it was telling how hard the books are leaning Milwaukee

ken.barkley: Well, I believe Westgate opened like Bucks -250 | Celtics +200

bryan.mears: I was surprised at the odds, too

Bucks +500 to win title is surprising it got there as well

I mean, I don’t think it’s wrong, just thought the public would be more on Boston

Wob: proper payout on Bucks series parlay is +600 so would need +700 to make it worth it [betting title odds] vs. series

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