Raptors vs. Sixers Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Kawhi Keep Up His Historic Play?

Raptors vs. Sixers Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Kawhi Keep Up His Historic Play? article feature image

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard

Game 5 Betting Odds: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

  • Spread: Raptors -6
  • Over/Under: 211.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Tied 2-2

>> All odds as of Monday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

Most of the Raptors have been terrible in this series, but it didn’t matter in Game 4 as Kawhi Leonard was superhuman.

Can he do it again? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

In the first four games of the Raptors-Sixers series, the under has cashed in all four games by a margin of 20 points per game. Since 2005, Games 5-7 of a playoff series have historically gone under the total at a 54.4% rate, hitting by about a full point per game.

In that span, this is just the 22nd time that two teams have gone under the total in the first four games of a playoff series. In Game 5, the under is 13-8 (61.9%) in those games, hitting by 5.4 points per game. Of those 21 games, the highest over/under was 208.5 between the Warriors and Rockets in last year’s playoffs; the Raptors-Sixers Game 5 total is set at 211.5. – Evan Abrams

Did you know? Kawhi Leonard already has an extensive playoff career, with 96 total games of experience; he’s averaging 17.9 points per game on 52.5% shooting. In his 96-game playoff career, this is the first time Leonard has scored 30 points or more in at least three consecutive games — he has done it in four straight to begin this series.

In the last 20 years of the playoffs, only LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal have strung together at least six consecutive games of 25 points or more while shooting at least 50% from the field. – Abrams

Locky: How I’m Betting Game 5

A lot of people are going to focus on Joel Embiid’s poor performance — quite possibly due to his health — but the other primary reason the Sixers lost in Game 4 is that when Embiid WASN’T in the game, Greg Monroe was and they were an abject disaster. Monroe somehow managed a -18 in 11 minutes, missing easy shots and fouling on every pick-and-roll. I mean … yikes.

Yes, if Embiid plays a little better, Philadelphia wins, but if ANYONE could play relatively average minutes as a big man for the Sixers when Embiid sat, they would have won by more. Their inability to get anything out of Jonah Bolden, Boban Marjanovic and Monroe is just killing them every time.

And it means they have to play Embiid more, which makes him less effective since he’s so gassed at the end of these games. It’s an awful ripple effect for the Sixers, one that may cost them a series they probably should win (and Game 4 was a game they should have won, in my opinion).

Embiid’s health and completely questionable status put the game-by-game handicapping of this series as a question mark for me. If I can’t know anything close to the quantity of Embiid I get, I can’t in good conscience bet on the outcome of the game.

That may make you say, “well, if he’s such an unknown, take Toronto; it’s more likely than not Embiid sits or plays poorly.” But I hated everything I saw from Toronto in Game 4 with the exception of Kawhi Leonard.

Kyle Lowry went 6-for-13, and Mark Jones was ready to anoint him to the All-NBA team during the telecast. He had 14 points. Neat. Pascal Siakam was so ineffective (or hurt?) that he didn’t play the most important stretch of the fourth, and outside of Serge Ibaka the bench was a zero (and Ibaka was airballing 3s at an alarming rate).

If I knew anything about Embiid in a positive light, I’d be on Philly here, but I just can’t guess about the status of the most influential player in the series and lean one way or the other.

And if he does play, who knows what you get. If anything, see how much warm-up video they show and listen to the beat reporters covering the team, and you may get value in betting his prop unders in Game 5 (a profitable angle that emerged in Game 4 as well). — Ken Barkley

Mears: How I’m Handicapping Tonight’s Game

I was on the 76ers in Game 4 after the Pascal Siakam news, although he did end up playing. I can’t blame the loss on that, though, as he wasn’t really that good, shooting just 2-of-10 for nine points in 29 minutes of action. It was another game the non-Kawhi Leonard Raptors were terrible, but Kawhi was good enough to propel them to a road victory.

And that’s notable looking ahead to this Game 5 in Toronto. Kawhi played essentially a perfect game, the Sixers weren’t very good and the Raptors still won by just five points (to be fair, it was on the road). What happens if the Sixers play 5% better or Kawhi isn’t perfect?

This line of Raptors -6 or -6.5 depending on the book suggests they’re three-ish points better than the 76ers, which I just don’t think is right given what we’ve seen this series. The Raptors still have a ton of flaws that have been exposed with this long, athletic defense. Their only reliable offense has been Kawhi creating 1-on-1.

To be fair, the Sixers have their fair share of flaws, too. Embiid’s health is certainly a legitimate concern. But the rest of the team should play better — Tobias Harris led the team with 23 field goal attempts (and hit just seven) — and that seems more likely than Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet improving.

As such, I would lean toward grabbing that many points, and I think Evan’s trend above about the over/under is compelling, too. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.