The Denver Nuggets (22-9) and Miami Heat (17-15) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Nuggets -2.5), with the over/under set at 245 total points. The Nuggets are -130 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Heat are +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Monday, December 29.
Nuggets vs Heat Prediction
- Nuggets vs Heat pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-120)
My Nuggets vs Heat best bet is on Tim Hardaway Jr. to score over 15.5 points, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs Heat Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 245 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 245 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Nuggets vs Heat NBA Preview
The Heat haven’t beaten the Nuggets in a regular-season game since August 1, 2020 — which came in the bubble.
Even if you include Miami’s win in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals, Denver has still won five straight meetings, including a 122-112 victory in early November in Denver.
Miami has dealt with injuries for much of the season, but the Heat are coming off back-to-back wins, beating the Hawks in Atlanta 126-111 on Friday and then the Pacers at home 142-116 on Saturday. Prior to those wins, Miami went through a 1-8 stretch.
Denver has lost three of its last five games. Most recently, the Nuggets are coming off a 127-126 loss to the Magic in Orlando on Saturday night, which followed an overtime win against the Timberwolves on Christmas, where Nikola Jokic posted a historic 56-16-15 line.
Still, Denver — at 22-9 and third in the Western Conference — also lost in Dallas on Tuesday and fell at home by 14 to the Rockets last Saturday. It’s been a rollercoaster stretch for the consensus No. 2 title contenders, coming after a six-game winning streak prior to this five-game run.
For Denver, Cam Johnson (knee), Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Christian Braun (ankle) and Tamar Bates (foot) are expected to remain out.
For Miami, Tyler Herro (toe) and Terry Rozier (foot) will continue to be sidelined. Bam Adebayo (back) is listed as probable after missing the last two games.
Nuggets vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
No Johnson, no Gordon and no Braun is the expectation tonight. So I'll lean on Tim Hardaway Jr. here.
Hardaway Jr. is over 15.5 points in four straight and is kind of a Heat killer. The Miami native will be back home tonight against the Heat, whom he has scored over 15.5 points in 10 of 16, and the unders of late have largely been due to a decrease in role.
But tonight, the 13-year veteran is expected to be an instrumental scorer again for Denver, coming off a four-game stretch of averaging 20.8 points through 32.0 minutes per contest.
He's streaky as hell and backing him doesn't feel great, as someone from NYC who has seen this rollercoaster experience up close across multiple stints, but the history and current moment are both undeniable.
Here's to hoping he doesn't start off 0-for-8 and gets shelved, which is always a possibility with THJ.
Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-120)
