Stuckey’s Favorite College Basketball Situational Spots: 5 Afternoon Plays to Consider

It's the last massive Saturday college hoops slate of the season. I can't believe it either.

This is always a bittersweet day every year for me. On one hand, I'm sad that I won't have anymore colossal Saturday cards to tackle — but on the other, I know conference tournaments and the big dance are right around the corner.

Among today's situational angles, five of the spots I had circled before the week made the final cut.

The four most popular situational angles include letdowns, lookaheads, sandwiches and revenge (which I went into greater detail on a few weeks ago).

But those are just the first four high-level factors to consider; there are plenty of others that pop up. I simply use this exercise to circle the best situational spots on the card, but my numbers and matchup analyses ultimately determine which spots make the final cut.

For example, Syracuse might be the best pure situational fade on the card, as the Orange will travel to lowly Wake Forest after taking on Duke and UNC with a game against Virginia on Monday. That is your sandwich du jour, but I just can't bet a Demon Deacons team that can't shoot (329th in 3P%) against the Cuse zone.

There's no easy formula with situational spots. It's definitely more art than science. But you should at least be aware of the non-mathematical angles when capping college kids playing basketball. It's even more important this week with all of the various conference tournament motivation to consider.

My ultimate goal is to either point out a spot or two you may have overlooked — or push you toward or away from a side you were contemplating.

Without further ado, let's jump into this week's five best spots, starting with two home SEC sides.

Good luck!

Season Record: 38-26-2 (59.4%) +9.86 units. All odds as of 3 a.m.. ET

Alabama +1.5 vs. LSU

Noon ET on ESPN

One of my favorite pastimes is betting Alabama at home against ranked opponents. I consistently seem to value Alabama's home-court advantage higher than the market. To me, it's one of the most underrated home courts in all of college basketball.

You will get the best effort from the Tide, who are not only looking for revenge against their rival, but more importantly, seeking another signature win to punch their ticket to the dance.

From a matchup perspective, the Crimson Tide have the length to compete with the Tigers on the glass, as they did in the first matchup. In that game, LSU just shot lights out from deep (10-15) and I'm willing to bet they don't repeat that against a very stingy Alabama perimeter defense.

I think Alabama makes it seven straight home covers against ranked teams and gets a huge win for its NCAA tournament chances.

(I'd play this down to a PK.)

Tennessee ML vs. Kentucky

2 p.m. ET on CBS

Let's go right back to the well with another SEC home team.

I expect a laser-focused effort from a veteran Vols bunch that will be out for blood after getting embarrassed in Lexington two Saturdays ago.

Tennessee was simply not ready for the truck that hit it at Rupp and I think a lot of that had to do with the level of competition the Vols had played for a long stretch leading up to that game. They were overconfident and simply not ready to get punched in the mouth by another title contender.

Well, after a very difficult stretch of their schedule, I think the Vols will rise to the occasion  in what should be an electric atmosphere. Tennessee is just a different animal at home.

Most importantly, Kentucky will be without Reid Travis. As I talked about in our betting preview, he put on a defensive clinic against Grant Williams in that first matchup. Without Travis, PJ Washington may have to cover Williams, which not only puts him in risk of foul trouble, but will also require him to exert a lot more energy on the defensive end (which could hurt his offense).

Travis' absence will also have a trickle down effect. If Washington does stick to Williams, Admiral Schofield should  benefit from a mismatch. UK doesn't miss a beat against most SEC opponents without Travis, but his physicality will be sorely missed in this particular matchup.

I think the Vols beat the Cats in Knoxville for the fourth straight year — but I do think it's close, so I'l be throwing them in a ML parlay with Oklahoma, as I think the Sooners are also in a nice spot, but they just missed the cut at the current number.

Denver +5 vs. Nebraska Omaha

3 p.m. ET on ALT (DTV: 681)

This isn't pretty by any stretch, but it's probably my favorite spot of the day.

After getting upset on Thursday at Oral Roberts, Omaha essentially blew its chance at a share of the regular season title. The Mavericks now basically know they will be the No. 2 seed in the Summit Conference Tournament. They do technically still have an outside shot at a No. 1 seed and a shared conference title, but that scenario involves South Dakota State losing at home as 17.5-point favorites to Western Illinois.

Speaking of Western Illinois, if it loses to SDSU, Denver could leap frog the Leathernecks with a win to take the final spot in the conference tourney (only eight of the nine teams qualify).

Denver has this new life as a result of a shocking 28-point win over WIU this past Saturday, which came after seven consecutive losses.

Also, as a result of the elevation, Denver has one of the best home-court advantages in Division I. In fact, Denver has been the fourth most profitable home team to bet on since 2005.

And it's an even tougher trip when a team has to visit the Pioneers for its third straight road game, which Omaha will do today.

I just don't think Omaha shows up after that disappointing loss on Thursday with its seed basically sealed for the conference tourney. And I think you get an inspired Denver effort at home in a do-or-die situation. I think the Pioneers carry their momentum over and will have a shot at the outright win.

(I'd play this down to +4.)

TCU +3.5 vs. Texas Tech

4 p.m ET on ESPN2

It's just a nice buy low/sell high spot here mixed in with some TCU revenge from a blowout loss in Lubbock earlier this season.

Tech has to be emotionally drained after these past six days; the Red Raiders blew out Kansas and then held off Oklahoma State in overtime. Meanwhile, I expect a fully focused Horned Frogs team that has lost four of five — most recently a bad loss in Morgantown to West Virginia in triple overtime. The four days off in between that game and this one should serve Jamie Dixon's bunch well.

I expect TCU to be the more energized team, which will especially show in the rebounding department. I think we see a very flat Texas Tech out of the gates.

Plus, I'm on the side of the Kansas rule here: whatever needs to happen for the Jayhawks to win the Big 12 usually does.

(I'd play this down to +3.)

Loyola Marymount +8 at San Francisco

4 p.m. ET on SportsNet LA (DTV: 691)

This will be a tough spot for San Fran to get up for after it blew a late lead in an overtime home loss on Thursday against San Diego. There's major letdown potential for a team that basically knows it will be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the conference tournament. It's also an early afternoon local tip, so I don't expect a raucous crowd at War Memorial Gymnasium.

Loyola Marymount should have no shortage of motivation, as it's playing for a first round bye in the WCC tourney.

I just had no hesitation fading a Dons team that is trending in the wrong direction of late — especially since they must know that their two-game losing streak basically cost them any outside shot of an at large bid.

Also, keep in mind that San Francisco struggles mightily from the free throw line, which could play a major role at this number. The Dons are shooting 66.1% from the stripe this season, which ranks 314th in the nation. On the other hand, the Lions rank in the top 50 in that category. That disparity alone could get us to the window, especially if the refs call it tight.

(I'd play this down to +7.5.)

Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.