The American Eagles take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, VA. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Virginia is favored by -26.5 points on the spread with the total set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my American vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks for December 22, 2025.
American vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Over 153.5 (Play to 156)
My American vs Virginia best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
American vs. Virginia Odds
| American Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -108 | 153.5 -112o / -108u | OFF |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -112 | 153.5 -112o / -108u | OFF |
- American U vs Virginia spread: Virginia -26.5
- American U vs Virginia over/under: 153.5 points
American vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
American Basketball
Just one year can change things quickly, including a coach's whole philosophy. Duane Simpkins led American to the NCAA Tournament in 2024-25, and it played a bottom-10 tempo in the sport.
The same was true in Simpkins' first season in 2023-24, as American was bottom-10 in tempo that year as well.
So, what changed to have American playing at the 122nd-fastest tempo in the sport in 2025-26? It seems simple: Matt Rogers was a hound for the ball, and Simpkins ran the whole offense through the dynamic big. With him gone, it's a more perimeter-oriented approach.
Now it's all about skill and shooting for the Eagles.
Offensively, American is looking to let it fly from deep, so it has a very boom-or-bust offensive approach. All five American starters can shoot it from downtown, which is why the Eagles attempt 3s on 46% of their possessions.
The Eagles need more shooting from their two best players: Freshman guard Madden Collins and versatile forward Greg Jones.
Collins is a dazzling first-year player, leading the Eagles with 14 points per game, but he's shooting just 24% from deep. On the flip side, he's shooting 47% from the field, so he's a very capable scorer.
A starter next to Rogers last season, Jones is the premier interior option for American, and he's shooting 21% from deep.
None of the Eagles' starters are taller than 6-foot-7, which could be a problem on defense. They rank 248th in defensive efficiency, and teams shoot 54% on 2s and 36% from deep against them.
It's not all bad, though, as American forces turnovers 19% of the time. Stops are few and far between unless American can sneak a turnover.
Virginia Basketball
Virginia looks the part of a possible top-25 team. The Cavaliers are 26th in KenPom and have a 10-1 record.
Ryan Odom has brought a new, fun style to Charlottesville. With the perfect blend of size, skill and shooting, Virginia boasts the 14th-most efficient offense in America, per KenPom.
Shooting is the DNA of this Virginia squad. Over 43% of the Cavaliers' shots come from downtown, and they're connecting on 39% of them.
Plus, Virginia reels in 41% of its missed shots, so even a missed trey can lead to a bucket.
Odom brought international flavor with him to Virginia in 7-footer Johann Grunloh and starting four-man Thijs De Ridder. That pair figures to dominate in this one.
De Ridder leads Virginia with 15 points per game, while Grunloh snags seven boards an evening. I expect De Ridder and Grunloh to use their length to dominate a smaller American interior.
In the backcourt, Virginia doesn't have a go-to option, but it has an outstanding overall guard group.
Freshman Chance Mallory does all the little things. He can shoot, but don't be surprised if he pitches in four or five rebounds and assists.
I'd also expect veteran wings Jacari White and Sam Lewis to get some shots off.
American vs. Virginia Betting Analysis
I'm going with the over here.
Virginia laying -26.5 is too rich for my blood, especially with American having a bunch of shooting.
I expect Virginia to score in the 90-100 range, but the Cavaliers are 72nd in defensive efficiency. They can give up points of their own, so that scares me away from the spread.
Go with the shooting and offenses here.
My Pick: Over 153.5 (Play to 156)
