UNLV vs San Diego State Odds & Picks | NCAAB Betting Preview
Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Lamont Butler
UNLV vs San Diego State Odds
-115o / -105u
|San Diego State Odds|
-115o / -105u
San Diego State looks to remain red-hot when it hosts UNLV on Saturday in a crucial Mountain West clash.
UNLV had a rough start to Mountain West play, losing six of its first seven games, including a 10-point loss at home to these Aztecs. The Runnin’ Rebels have since rebounded, winning four of their last five games. UNLV needs to go on a run to end the season if it wants any hope for an at-large bid and it starts on Saturday with a road win at San Diego State.
The Aztecs are roaring through the Mountain West, currently sporting a 10-2 record, and have won six of their last seven games. They have cracked the AP Top 25 rankings and are looking like one of the more dangerous mid-major teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament.
UNLV has rebounded during conference play, but this is a team that still has some major flaws on the offensive end of the court.
The Runnin’ Rebels are a terrible shooting team. The have the lowest turnover rate and the highest free throw rate in the Mountain West, but outside of those two areas, it’s pretty bleak.
UNLV is only shooting 34% from behind the 3-point arc and a dismal 49.3% from inside the arc, which includes only 54% of shot attempts at the rim. In the last meeting against San Diego State, UNLV became way too reliant on the 3-point shot, jacking up 36 attempts and only making 10 of them. The Rebels did shoot 50% from inside the arc, but only 16 of their 67 points came at the rim, which is a problem.
If they are going to be effective offensively they have to get out in transition as much as possible. In the last meeting, UNLV put up 1.55 PPP in transition and is also the 10th-highest frequency team in transition, per ShotQuality.
UNLV is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Runnin’ Rebels are third in the country in turnover percentage and forced a whopping 22 in the previous meeting with San Diego State.
The problem for UNLV is it is a very poor defensive rebounding team. The Runnin’ Rebels are second-to-last in defensive rebounding percentage, which is a problem because San Diego State is the second-best offensive rebounding team in the Mountain West and grabbed 14 in the previous meeting.
UNLV also sends opponents to the free throw line at the highest rate in the conference, which again is a problem because San Diego State went to the line 27 times in their previous meeting.
San Diego State is the best offense in the Mountain West in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. The reason for that is because the Aztecs attack the rim at an elite level. They are 14th in the country in PPP on shot attempts at the rim and are shooting 62% on those shots.
They also are hitting a good percentage from behind the arc, although they aren’t too reliant on the 3-point shot, having the ninth-highest 3-point rate in the Mountain West. The Aztecs are shooting 37.6% from behind the arc in conference play and went 11 for 21 in the first meeting with UNLV.
They are also getting the free throw line and crashing the offensive glass at a top three rate in the Mountain West, so this is a really good matchup for their offense.
San Diego State also has an elite mid-major defense, ranking 25th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The Aztecs do a tremendous job defending the 3-point line, which was very relevant in their previous meeting with UNLV. San Diego State is only allowing 29.9% from behind the arc in Mountain West play and is also allowing the 10th-lowest open 3-point rate, per ShotQuality.
The Aztecs also are a top 30 team in terms of defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge against a team like UNLV that loves to take a high number of 3-point shots.
UNLV vs San Diego State Betting Pick
I am not sure how the UNLV offense is going to improve from the previous meeting. San Diego State is one of the best teams in the Mountain West defensively against everything that the Runnin’ Rebels can do offensively.
On the flip side, San Diego State turning the ball over 22 times in the first meeting is concerning and UNLV is a decent team defending the 3-point arc and at the rim, where San Diego State is most effective.
So, I like the value on Under 139.5 points, which is currently available at FanDuel.
Pick: Under 139.5
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.