The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Vanderbilt is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -192. The total is set at 178.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Pick
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 178.5 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 178.5 -115o / -105u | -192 |
My Pick: Over 177.5 (Play to 180)
My Alabama vs Vanderbilt best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Betting Preview
When I see a total this high, I always start by asking if there’s any real chance the game slows down.
With Alabama and Vanderbilt, the answer is clearly no, which is why the over looks like a great play.
Let’s start with pace, since everything else depends on it. Vanderbilt plays at a top-45 tempo nationally, averaging just 15.7 seconds per possession.
Alabama is even faster, ranking in the top 10 with an average possession length of 14.8 seconds.
These numbers aren’t based solely on specific situations or game scripts; this is simply how both teams prefer to play.
They thrive on quick decisions, early shots and they both have no interest in slowing things down late in the shot clock. I don't expect either team to use up much of the shot clock all evening long.
When Vanderbilt has the ball, its efficiency will shine. The Dores rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they do so without being sloppy.
Their turnover rate sits inside the top 20, which is key against an Alabama defense that ranks near the bottom of Division I in forcing turnovers. That combination keeps possessions alive and shots going up quickly.
Vanderbilt is also top-10 in effective field goal percentage, which means when it does get looks early, it's converting at a high rate. Even misses won't burn our over play because Vanderbilt generates free throws at an above-average rate.
Now, let’s look at Alabama’s offense, which is a big reason why this total seems so likely to hit. Alabama is second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and plays at one of the fastest tempos.
The Tide like to score in bunches, mainly by taking a lot of 3-pointers. Alabama is top-five nationally in 3-point attempt rate, with more than half its shots coming from beyond the arc.
This matters because Vanderbilt’s 3-point defense has been a bit lucky. The Dores allow a lot of 3s, but opponents haven’t made them pay yet, which is tough to keep up against a team that shoots this often and this confidently.
Fouls are another big reason to like the over. Vanderbilt is near the bottom nationally in free-throw attempts allowed per field goal attempt, which is tough against an Alabama team that makes defenders work hard.
Fouls quietly boost totals by stopping the clock, creating easy points and making halves longer, especially late in games when teams are already playing fast. Alabama can get into the bonus early in each half, and when that happens, expect cheap points with the clock stopped.
What I also like here is how balanced the scoring profiles are. Alabama gets over 40% of its points from 3-pointers, while Vanderbilt scores efficiently inside and at the line.
You’re not relying on one team to carry the entire scoring load in one specific way. With both tempos running up and down the floor, it won't matter how they score.
Even rotation patterns help the over. Alabama ranks top-40 in bench minutes, which keeps legs fresh during a high-paced contest, as fatigue isn’t likely to kill pace here.
When you add all of the angles up between the elite efficiency, fast pace, lots of 3-point shots, frequent fouls and plenty of clock stoppages, this game is shaping out to be the first team to 100 points wins.
I love the over here, as I would buy this now before it creeps up higher.
My Pick: Over 177.5 (Play to 180)
