Freedman’s Favorite Tuesday NCAA Tournament Prop: Will FDU’s Darnell Edge Score 18 Points?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have 10 NHL, six NBA and two NCAA Tournament play-in games.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

294-254-12, +30.61 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 176-144-4, +18.97 Units
• NHL: 65-78-7, -6.66 Units
• Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-8-0. -1.70 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Player Prop for Fairleigh Dickinson-Prairie View A&M: Darnell Edge Over/Under 17.5 Points

• Over 17.5: +100
• Under 17.5: -130

The NCAA Tournament tips off tonight with the play-in game between Fairleigh Dickinson and Prairie View A&M (6:40 p.m. ET, truTV).

In this matchup between No. 16 seeds, Knights guard Darnell Edge catches my eye.

He leads Fairleigh Dickinson with 37.0 minutes, 11.5 field-goal attempts, 5.4 3-point attempts and 16.4 points per game. The Knights offense runs through him.

Compared to the Panthers, the Knights are coming in very rested. This will be Fairleigh Dickinson's fourth game in 13 days. As for Prairie View A&M, this will be the fourth in seven days.

The Panthers are a tough defensive team (second in nation with 620 turnovers forced, 35th with 206 3-pointers allowed), but with the extra rest, the Knights should be able to score, so I like Edge to get over 17.5 points.

The Knights are favored by 2.5 points, so there's little reason to think that Edge will play fewer than the 37.0 minutes he sees on average, and it's reasonable to assume that he might play more in a game with stakes this high.

This is a must-win game for the Knights of course, and it will likely be close. Last week in the Northeast Conference Tournament, Edge played 39 and 40 minutes in must-win games against Robert Morris and Saint Francis. He scored 20 and 21 points.

It's possible Edge plays the entire game. Given the urgency of the situation, I'd expect him to play no fewer than 38 minutes.

In his 15 games this year with 38-plus minutes, he's averaged 20.9 points. I expect Edge to play plenty and shoot aggressively in what could be his final collegiate game.

I’d bet over 17.5 points down to -120, although I doubt the line will move in that direction.

The Pick: Over 17.5 (+100)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.