The Air Force Falcons take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by 23.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 138.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Air Force vs. San Diego State prediction and college basketball picks for December 17, 2025.
Air Force vs San Diego State Prediction
My Pick: Under 137 or Better
My Air Force vs San Diego State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Air Force vs. San Diego State Odds
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Air Force vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Preview
Air Force Basketball
Air Force is clearly the worst team in the Mountain West. The Falcons are 3-8 and have lost four consecutive games heading into conference play.
Joe Scott is a Princeton disciple under the legendary Pete Carril, and he has Princeton offensive elements at Air Force.
The Falcons are one of the slower-tempo teams in America (342nd in adjusted tempo). The two biggest cardinal sins for a slow-playing team are turnovers and missed free throws. Unfortunately, Air Force turns the ball over 21% of the time and shoots just 63% from the line.
It's no real surprise Air Force is also 342nd in offensive efficiency. The offensive game plan is just wonky. They shoot a fair amount of 3s with little success, and their only consistent scoring comes at the free-throw line.
They have a pair of promising freshmen in guard Kam Sanders (12.3 PPG) and forward Lucas Hobin (12.7 PPG). That pair consists of two of the Falcons' top-four scorers, and they'll have to stand out in this contest.
In the portal era, a team like Air Force — which can't touch the portal and has no NIL money — has no chance of competing with teams like San Diego State. It's the world we live in, but the Falcons also don't make the most of what they have — a good coaching scheme.
San Diego State Basketball
Everything we thought we knew about a Brian Dutcher-coached team has changed. The Aztecs are known for defense, but they're just 54th in defensive efficiency this season — that would be San Diego State's worst marker since 2018-19.
How about tempo? The Aztecs still slow things to a halt, right? Wrong. They sit 155th in adjusted tempo, which is the second-fastest tempo in Dutcher's tenure (his first season was the fastest).
The last few games have gone well for the old narrative of San Diego State having an elite defense. The Aztecs held Utah Valley to 0.95 PPP and Lamar to 0.93 PPP. I'm sure Dutcher still is displeased, but it's a step in the right direction.
I find it hard to believe the Aztecs won't eventually be a top-30 defense this season. The positional length is elite across the board, with each starter standing 6-foot-5 or taller.
Plus, Magoon Gwath is an elite shot blocker, and Miles Byrd is the ideal defensive wing. Expect San Diego State to be a better defensive team as the season rolls on.
San Diego State sits 53rd in offensive efficiency, and it shoots a dazzling 40% from downtown. The Aztecs are a fairly low-volume shooting team, attempting 3s on 36% of their field goal attempts. It's not for a lack of shooting talent, as six rotation players hit 36% or better from deep.
BJ Davis is the forgotten man for the Aztecs. You hear about Byrd, Gwath and Reese Dixon-Waters, but it's Davis who leads the Aztecs in scoring. He can provide a flurry of scoring off the bench and likely needs more minutes.
Another thing to note for San Diego State — it doesn't really have a point guard. The Aztecs brought in Sean Newman Jr. to play the point, but he's not a good enough scorer or defender to play starter minutes.
So, Dutcher rolls with Taj DeGourville, but he's shooting 27% from the field.
I'm curious to see how the point guard committee shakes out in league play.
Air Force vs. San Diego State Betting Analysis
I'm eyeing the under here. San Diego State could have some offensive success against a poor defensive Air Force team.
But even if the Aztecs score 80, I'm not sold on the Falcons crossing 50 points. This feels like a game where Dutcher gets his defense to lock in and suffocate one of the worst offenses in America.
My Pick: Under 137 or Better
