Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds

The third-ranked Baylor Bears take on the No. 18 Texas Tech Raiders on Sunday in the second showdown between these two teams this season.

In the first matchup, Baylor won by eight points on the road via a 68-60 result in what wound up being a gritty defensive showdown. Baylor has rarely scored less than 70 points; it has only happened three times this year, including the first bout with Texas Tech.

Ultimately, the Bears' offense is too strong for it to repeat that weak performance this time around and I am expecting a lot more scoring from Texas Tech as well.

Baylor Bears | (20-1, 12-1 Big 12)

It is no surprise as to who runs the show for head coach Scott Drew and the Bears. His name is Jared Butler. 

The standout is putting together an incredibly impressive season in maybe the most difficult conference in college basketball this year, averaging 17.1 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 3.2 rpg per game for the Big 12 power.

Butler is such an impressive player, evident by his effective field-goal statistic of 59.6 percent, which ranks just behind Iowa’s uber-efficient center Luka Garza. Baylor also has a strong cast to go with Butler, including MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, all of whom contribute quite a bit on the offensive end.

Digging deeper, Baylor has been absolutely obliterating the over as of late. In its last nine games, the Bears have hit over on eight of those occasions.

Even with that knowledge, the over/under has been placed at its second-lowest amount in that time frame. This line only comes in as a higher over/under total than the game against Kansas State, which was set at 135.5 total points. That game ended with 166 points.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders | (17-8, 9-7 Big 12)

The Red Raiders were given a gift this year from Georgetown, which ironically is not doing so well with its subpar 9-12 record.

That gift came in the form of a 6-foot-2 freak athlete named Mac McClung.

McClung is averaging 16.4 ppg this year, leading the Red Raiders to the NCAA tournament where it will hope to have a run similar to that of 2019 when it got to the championship game and fell to Virginia. 

In his first year at Texas Tech, McClung has surpassed many folks’ expectations, as he was really able to expand his game. This, in turn, helped the Red Raiders find their identity in a very tough conference.

They have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 112.4, which is 35th in the country, while defensively, they boast the 17th best adjusted defensive efficiency score, per KenPom.

What Texas Tech does so well on the offensive end is protect the ball, averaging just 11 turnovers per game, which is 27th in the country, per Team Rankings. Defensively, the Red Raiders tend to string together a combination of steals and blocks with their athleticism.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Texas Tech has recently hit the under a lot, while Baylor has been trending in the opposite direction. The Red Raiders have a strong defense, but nothing that could slow Baylor down near as much as it did last time. 

Interestingly enough, Texas Tech only allows opponents to score 62.3 points per game, but that number balloons to 69.1 points when it's on the road. 

In contrast, Baylor averages 88.2 ppg at home,  which is obviously a monstrous amount. The Bears will certainly not have another game where they score below 70. They have only done that three times this season, one of which was to Texas Tech back in January, and another to Kansas in their most recent loss. 

Even if you account for the Red Raiders’ strong defense, it’s still implausible to believe the Bears will score much less than their season average at home.

My model predicts a score of 80-68, using various statistical measures over each teams’ past five games. Expect the over comfortably in this meeting.

Pick: Total Over 138 | Play up to 140