It's the first major College Basketball Saturday without football hanging over our heads.
This is a momentous occasion for our staff of college basketball betting gurus, who have been waiting for this since the first games tipped in early November.
Here are our four favorite college basketball best bets and NCAAB predictions for Saturday, December 13.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Pick
Schematically, I hate this matchup for Texas Tech.
Grant McCasland’s drop defense is excellent at slowing down motion-based offenses, but the Red Raiders have been shredded off the dribble by most ball handlers.
I doubt they’ll put up much of a fight against Darius Acuff, Maleek Thomas, and DJ Wagner, three guards who can dribble the air out of the ball and create in the middle of the court.
On the other end of the court, you know what you’re getting from Texas Tech — the Raiders run a four-around-one offense predicated on post ISOs and short-rolls from All-American forward JT Toppin.
Arkansas had a tough time stopping Duke and Michigan State in similar actions. However, the Hogs’ defense is so dangerous because of their one-through-five switchability. They’re an elite dribble defense, and they’re excellent at preventing catch-and-shoot opportunities.
While Toppin should be able to get his against Travon Brazile, I think Arkansas will be able to lock up the rest of the Raiders’ complementary pieces — specifically, Christian Anderson in ball-screens, and Donovan Atwell and LeJaun Watts in spot-up opportunities.
I’m OK with Arkansas playing Toppin straight up and forcing him to beat the Hogs on his own, mainly because his efficiency has lagged this season.
It’s impossible to stop him from a volume perspective, but he hasn’t been elite on a per-possession basis as a roller (.90 PPP, 30th percentile) or poster (.85 PPP, 39th percentile). It’s a big reason why the Red Raiders rank sub-200th nationally in 2-point shooting (51%).
I’m a tad worried about two things:
- Texas Tech is an elite transition-denial defense, which is always crucial against Calipari-led squads.
- Texas Tech should dominate the boards.
But I think Arkansas has all the half-court advantages here, and I project the Hogs as nearly 1.5-point neutral-court favorites, providing a big enough edge for me to act on.
Check out all of McGrath's CBB Projections for Saturday here:
Pick: Arkansas +1.5 or Better
Marquette vs. Purdue Pick
This game activated one of our Action PRO Betting Systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In college basketball, teams that have struggled against the spread and are coming off a decisive loss often become undervalued by the market, particularly when facing large double-digit spreads.
After repeated poor performances, oddsmakers tend to overadjust, creating opportunities for motivated teams to outperform expectations even if they don't win outright.
The combination of public bias against losing teams and the natural tendency for effort and variance to stabilize makes these spots profitable over time.
By backing teams that appear to be playing poorly but are priced at their lowest, this system identifies when perception has drifted too far from performance reality, leading to consistent value against inflated lines.
However, this game also fits another one of my favorite betting systems: Blindly Betting Shaka Smart as a Road Underdog.
While the Golden Eagles are at their lowest, this is a great point to buy-low on Smart in a spot he consistently covers at a 60% rate.
Even better, our guy Sean Paul is on the Eagles, believing that their physicality will play against a sometimes-soft Purdue squad.
Pick: Marquette +17.5 or Better
Kansas vs NC State Pick
By Jim Root
The Wolfpack lack a top-end non-conference win, even with victories over VCU (home) and Boise State (neutral).
A future clash with Mississippi in Greensboro may not move the needle much, either, considering the Rebels’ struggles.
Kansas has already been to the Triangle area, playing a road game in Chapel Hill – not far at all from Raleigh and NC State. That should ease any concerns about the atmosphere overwhelming the Jayhawks, and Bill Self will not be outfoxed by the clever, tinkering Will Wade on the sideline.
There may be some concealed bad blood here, as Self and Kansas outbid NC State for Congolese big man Paul Mbiya late in the offseason (late June). Mbiya has been an afterthought for the Jayhawks, but Wade surely was not fond of that sneaky bag drop.
A key tug-of-war here: whether Kansas' cold shooters (Kohl Rosario, Melvin Council, Bryson Tiller) can knock down shots against a compact NC State defense that ranks 359th nationally in 3-point rate allowed.
Darryn Peterson’s return certainly aids that cause, and both White and Jamari McDowell have gotten off to strong starts from deep.
Ultimately, I am going with the home team, which should be more desperate in a raucous weekend environment.
Given some of Kansas' potential regression concerns defensively – especially against a Wolfpack squad that can really light it up from deep – this line is a slight bargain to me.
Pick: NC State -3 or Better
Maryland vs. Michigan Pick
This is a rather large spread, but I will not be deterred from backing Michigan to cover.
This is a Michigan team that has averaged a 35-point margin across its past six wins.
And while Maryland has played a tough schedule, the Terps lost by an average of 30 points to Gonzaga, Alabama, and Iowa.
Pick: Michigan -20 or Better
