Alabama-Texas A&M Betting Odds: Even With Inflated Line, Can You Fade the Tide?
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deionte Thompson
Texas A&M at Alabama Betting Odds
- Odds: Alabama -26
- Over/Under: 61
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Are you feeling brave? How brave?
If you’ve bet against Alabama this season, it hasn’t been pretty. The Tide are covering spreads at a higher margin than any other team in the country, and Nick Saban is going scorched earth on everyone.
He’s got probably his best offense ever with Tua Tagovailoa under center. The defense, despite replacing most of the secondary, is elite, as always. There’s almost nothing wrong with the 2018 Tide.
But Texas A&M is the most complete team Alabama has faced thus far. This spread might be inflated and too high, but are you brave enough stand in front of a steamroller?
Market Moves for Texas A&M-Alabama
After some line movement, oddsmakers found a number that generated 50-50 betting on this game.
Alabama opened at -23.5, but is now listed at -26, and the Tide are receiving only 60% of bets — their lowest mark of the year.
Trend to Know
By John Ewing
Under Saban, Alabama is 35-23 (60%) ATS as a double-digit favorite against an SEC opponent.
Big Plays Against Bama?
Alabama has somewhat fallen victim to big plays, allowing a 20-plus yard gain on 6.7% of its defensive plays. That’s smack in the middle of all FBS teams — unlike the elite standing the Tide find themselves everywhere else.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond showed his home run ability against Clemson, throwing for 430 yards (at a strong 10.8 per attempt).
Tide Are Still Somehow Underrated
Alabama is 3-0 against the spread (despite being favored by 21-plus in every game) and is covering the line by an average of 19.8 points.
That’s the best mark in the country, meaning the Tide have somehow been underrated.
Bets to Watch for in Texas A&M vs. Alabama
We know Texas A&M will run the ball, as the Aggies have at a top-20 clip this season, which will make this number much harder to cover for ‘Bama than against an Ole Miss team that came out chucking every play.
With the way Tua and the Alabama offense are playing, keep-away might be the best option for opposing teams to hang around (or at least cover).
Mond has also looked a lot better this year and he can take some confidence from losing by one score — 27-19 — to ‘Bama last year. I really didn’t want to fade Alabama, but this number is simply out of whack.
Even if you assume four points for home field, this line (along with Clemson -12 at A&M earlier this year) implies Alabama is about a touchdown better than Clemson on a neutral field, which I’m not ready to believe just yet.
And don’t forget A&M almost won that game, out-gaining Clemson 501-413 in the process. The Aggies rushed the ball 32 times in that game, which I expect them to do again this weekend.
By Ken Barkley
As someone who had Ole Miss +21 last Saturday, I am absolutely the person you should trust on properly rating Alabama, no question.
That being said, Alabama is now being adjusted to the point that we have be near the ceiling, right? Ole Miss allowed buckets of points to both teams it played going into the game, including FCS Southern Illinois; that the Rebels allowed so many points to Alabama isn’t ultimately THAT surprising.
Texas A&M at least has the advantage of having been on the field with an elite team already this season and holding up well.
The really scary thing is that Ole Miss came into the Alabama game with the No. 1 ranked S&P+ offense, and was playing at home, at night, in primetime. And the Rebels got SHUT OUT after the first 15 seconds of the game.
I’ve never even heard of anything like that before. Mond presents a dimension that has given Saban defenses trouble in the past (mobility) so if that’s what you want to hang your hat on, so be it.
In reality, we haven’t even seen a game present itself where Tua has to play more than about 20 minutes of game time, and the Alabama defense has held up for 60 easily against the best offensively rated team in the country on the road.
It’s possible this rating has more room to go up because there hasn’t even been a three-quarter challenge presented that would require all of Tua’s capabilities. Until further notice, I’m on a strict self-imposed pass rule with the Tide’s opponents.