Clemson-Pitt Betting Guide: Can Panthers Score Enough to Cover in ACC Championship?

Clemson-Pitt Betting Odds for ACC Championship

• Odds: Clemson -27.5
• Over/Under: 52.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Clemson and Pitt will meet at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Saturday night, where the Tigers will be the third-largest conference championship game favorite since 2005.

The last time these two teams met, Pitt upset the Tigers as 22-point underdogs at Clemson before Dabo Swinney's group won the national title.

This year, the Tigers have won by at least 20 points in seven straight games and are rolling after some slight early-season sputters. Pitt has outperformed expectations against a weak ACC Atlantic, but faces a tough matchup against Clemson for a lot of reasons. Let's dive in.

Odds Movement for Clemson-Pitt

By Danny Donahue

The opening 24.5-point spread didn’t scare bettors away from Clemson this weekend. In fact, 70% of bets and 81% of dollars have landed on the Tigers throughout the week, which has driven this line up by a field goal to its current number of -27.5

The movement on the total has been a bit more noteworthy. It’s fallen five points from it’s opening number, but that’s been no thanks to public action. More than 60% of bets are on the over to this point, but with those accounting for only 53% of dollars, bigger bets on the under have caused oddsmakers to readjust this number on a few occasions.

Pitt in Trouble vs. Elite Run Defense

By Stuckey

If you can shut down Pitt's rushing attack, you can shut down Pitt's offense. The Panthers rely heavily on their explosive rushing and average a top-10 mark of 5.8 yards per carry.

We saw what Pitt did last week against a great run defense in Miami, which won 24-3 after holding the Panthers to just 69 rushing yards on 38 carries. Well, Clemson has an even more dominant run defense.

In fact, nobody can shut down the run as effectively as the No. 1 ranked S&P+ rush defense of Clemson, which only allows an NCAA-best 2.2 yards per carry. That's historically dominant, as only four other teams have allowed the same or fewer yards per rush since 2007.

As a result, Pitt will find itself in plenty of passing situations, which should give quarterback Kenny Pickett nightmares. The Panthers' offensive line has allowed 28 sacks or 2.33 per game, which ranks 78th in college football. They will be tasked with containing a Clemson defense that has totaled 43 sacks on the season (tied No. 2).

The advanced metrics paint the same picture, as Pitt ranks 115th in Adjusted Sack Rate (113th on Passing Downs). Meanwhile, Clemson's defense ranks in the top 10 in that same category — both overall and on Passing Downs. Pickett will be running for his life all night long in Charlotte, as Clemson will force the Panthers into plenty of obvious passing situations by stopping the run early.

Key Metrics for Pitt-Clemson

By Stuckey

• Pitt ranks 115th against rush explosiveness, which could spell trouble against Travis Ettiene and company. Clemson’s offense ranks in the top 30 in rush explosiveness.
• Pitt does have a significant advantage in the kicking department. Alex Kessman has been one of the best kickers in all off college football this season. In fact, he has the record for most 50-plus yard field goals made in Heinz Field — college or pro!  On the other side, Greg Huegel doesn’t have the most reliable leg (9 of 13 on the year). It won’t win Pitt the game, but it certainly could swing the cover.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

When looking to wager against Clemson, you need to examine whether or not its opponent has the makeup to hang with the Tigers. Texas A&M had a mobile quarterback with talented wide receivers to take advantage of the inexperience at the cornerback position of Clemson.

Syracuse took advantage of a couple of fumbles and also has a dual-threat quarterback. Boston College almost covered a 19.5 point spread with eight first downs and nine rushing yards by forcing plenty of second-half punts.

Pitt will need all of the above, but the Panthers are one-dimensional and don't really have any. Pitt relies on an adjusted pace of 128th and that stellar rushing attack Stuckey mentioned. While Pitt isn’t moving the line of scrimmage with a stuff rate of 46th, they are sixth in rush explosiveness. The Clemson defensive line will be in the spotlight, which is something the unit relishes in with a havoc ranking of first in the nation. All four starters will be early NFL Draft picks in April.

Clemson’s defensive line is first in defensive rush S&P+, specifically first in opportunity rate and third in stuff rate. The Panthers are off a 24-3 loss to a Miami Hurricanes defense that is a lesser version of Clemson in the defensive front seven, so the question is whether the Tigers will name their number in this spot.

An opener of Pitt +21 has taken nothing but Clemson money up to -27. This line will continue to move until there is support for Pitt. The Action Network power ratings make this game Clemson +23, with S&P+ coming in at +25.5.

The only way to bet this game is on Clemson, as Dabo Swinney will remember the 2016 Pitt game that served as the only loss for the national championship team.

Collin's Lean: Clemson -27

How Will Pitt Score?

By Stuckey

As you could probably infer from my diatribe above, I don’t see how Pitt will score. To throw another stat out there, Pitt ranks No. 6 in rush explosiveness — a major part of their offensive attack. Well, Clemson ranks No. 1 (surprise, surprise) in defending rush explosiveness. Advantage neutralized.

While Pitt’s offense is getting shut down, it will also help the under by bleeding clock. Pitt plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 128th in Adjusted Pace and plays per minute.

When Pitt has the ball, it should be a dream for the under in this particular matchup: A team that plays at a snail pace that runs the ball at a top 20 rate on both standard and passing downs going up against a historically dominant rush defense.

Sign me up for under 52.5 in what should be wet conditions in Charlotte on Saturday night.

Stuckey's Pick: Under 52.5

Will Clemson Have Enough Possessions to Cover?

By Ken Barkley

To complete the triumvirate of people telling you about the ineffectiveness of Pitt, allow me to pile on. Pitt fits squarely in the middle of Clemson’s opponent profiles this season. They don’t do anything particularly different in a way that’s going to disrupt Clemson. Their offense and defense units aren’t particularly elite compared to what Clemson has faced already this season.

They are … Pitt.

And it’s also not like Clemson has been burning up the market the last two weeks, as the Tigers actually failed to cover against the Pinnacle close, albeit slightly, in back-to-back games. Clemson isn’t being inflated, they’re just this much better.

The real question here, to me, is with an expected very slow pace and possibly limited number of possessions, can Clemson realistically create enough of a cushion to cover? If I said Clemson won 39-13 (essentially the implied final score), what part would you disagree with?

Like Stuckey, I think the likelihood of weather and pace causing this to go under more often than not makes sense, but in terms of the spread, four touchdowns in this type of slow pace is a mountain I’m not sure Clemson can climb.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

—Clemson opened up as a 24.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship against Pittsburgh and have already been bet up to -27.5 as the betting tickets and money are fully on the Tigers.

Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson is 29-17 ATS (63%) against the closing number when the line moves with them (ex. -24 to -27) against a conference opponent, the fifth-most profitable coach in the Bet Labs database in this spot.

—Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson is 55-3 (94.8%) straight-up as a double-digit favorite, though one of those losses did come against Pittsburgh as a 21.5-point favorite in 2016, and two of Dabo’s three losses in this spot have come since the start of 2016.

Since 2005, 14 different head coaches have coached a minimum of 50 games as a double-digit favorite, and only Nick Saban (77-4, 95.06%) has a better win pct than Dabo Swinney.

By John Ewing

—Clemson and Pittsburgh are two of the most run-heavy teams in college football. The Tigers are averaging 256.3 rushing yards (12th in the nation) per game while Panthers have gained 232.7 rushing yards (17th) per contest.

In games between two teams averaging at least 215 yards per game, the under has gone 236-186-7 (56%) since 2005. Teams that run the ball well can extend drives, which keeps the clock running and tends to produce lower scoring games.