College Football Betting Tip: Buy Low After High-Profile Week 1 Loss
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Duke Blue Devils running back Brittain Brown
- The public tends to bet against teams after high-profile losses in college football Week 1.
- Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable against the spread system for buying low on teams after poor performances in their opener.
The public loves to overreact to Week 1 in college football.
The bigger the game and the larger the margin of defeat, the quicker gamblers will be to push the panic button.
That could be a mistake. History suggests there is value betting teams after a high-profile Week 1 loss.
What is the definition of a high-profile game? We are going to say any contest featuring a team ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. There were nine such games this year in college football’s first full weekend.
Since 2005, teams taking the field in Week 2 or Week 3 that lost to a top-10 opponent the previous game have gone 104-88-2 (54.2%) against the spread, (ATS) according to Bet Labs. The bigger the margin of the defeat, the more value the team has the next weekend:
This isn’t the largest sample size and we know correlation doesn’t equal causation. But there is a reason teams in this situation tend to cover.
My theory: Early in the season, we know the least about each squad. As casual bettors overreact to one poor performance the betting market inflates the lines, which creates value by buying low on teams after losses to top 10 opponents.
On Saturday, 10 teams are in action following a loss to a top 10 team. I’ll be looking to buy back on these programs after a high-profile loss in their opening game of the season
- Vanderbilt +7 at Purdue (12 p.m. ET)
- Georgia Tech -7 vs. South Florida (2 p.m. ET)
- Louisiana Tech -29.5 vs. Grambling State (3:30 p.m. ET)
- Duke -29.5 vs. North Carolina A&T (6 p.m. ET)
- Georgia Southern -7 vs. Maine (6 p.m. ET)
- Florida Atlantic +10.5 vs. Central Florida (7 p.m. ET)
- Middle Tennessee State -26.5 vs. Tennessee State (7 p.m. ET)
- Louisville -22.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky (7 p.m. ET)
- Miami -5 at North Carolina (8 p.m. ET)
- Houston -33.5 vs. Prairie View (8 p.m. ET)