College Football Betting Tip: Fade the Public in LSU-Clemson National Title Game

LSU and Clemson will battle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Monday night for the College Football Playoff National Championship (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Bettors are confident they know which team will cover.

At the time of writing, 65% of spread tickets are on LSU -5.5. This is the most lopsided bet game in College Football Playoff history.

Will LSU reward bettors at the ticket window? History says no.

In the College Football Playoff era, the team getting less than 50% of spread tickets have gone 11-6 (64.7%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. Teams getting 40% or less of bets, like Clemson, are 5-1 ATS.

These are small samples but they follow a larger trend. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet against the public in bowl games.

Teams getting less than 50% of bets have gone 282-244-7 (53.6%) ATS. Teams getting 40% or less of tickets have been even more profitable.

Since 2005, bowl teams receiving 40% or less of bets are 167-116-3 (59.0%) ATS. A $100 bettor wagering on these unpopular squads would have returned a profit of $4,179.

Why is betting against the public a smart strategy in the postseason? Bowl games are some of the most bet matchups of the season. Casual bettors tend to wager on favorites, which can inflate the line and make it profitable to fade the public, which typically means betting underdogs like Clemson.

Dabo Swinney’s team isn’t getting any respect from bettors but history suggests Clemson can cover the spread. It is not just history that points to value on the defending champs.

According to our Colin Wilson’s power ratings, the spread for the title game should be a pick’em. I’m betting Clemson and would feel comfortable wagering on Trevor Lawrence & Co. down to 3.5-point underdogs.