As we do each week on the Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday's college football slate.
North Carolina came back in stunning fashion for us last week, but those Texas State Bobcats let me down once again in a game I still can't figure out how they lost.
Anyways, for Week 3, Collin is finally moving past the ACC and looking at a live noon underdog, while I'm going with one of the most disgusting games on the board. I apologize in advance for the inevitable torture.
If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays out approximately 5.6-1
2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
2019: 2-2 +1.55 units
Wilson: Temple +215 (vs. Maryland)
- Spread: Maryland -7.5
- Over/Under: 64
- Location: Philadelphia, PA
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: CBS Sports Network
We don’t have a ton reliable data on Temple, which beat Bucknell 56-12 before a Week 2 bye. So, there's obviously still a lot of unknown for head coach Rod Carey’s team in his first year — but he did inherit an experienced roster with plenty of potential.
After Maryland TKO’ed both Howard and Syracuse, the question must be asked if those two wins have credibility. The Terps outscored their opponents 142-20, but Howard is one of the worst FCS teams in the country and Syracuse looks like a shell of the team we've seen in recent years.
Maryland's blowout win last week over Syracuse marked the biggest win by an unranked team over a ranked team since 1999. The question for gamblers and oddsmakers remains: Where is the ceiling for this Maryland team?
As a result of only playing one game against Bucknell, the Owls have elite numbers to date. They rank No. 1 in the nation in Power Success Rate and Havoc Allowed on offense. Meanwhile, the defense also ranks first in Opportunity Rate and Stuff Rate.
While you clearly have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, we know that Temple's defense excelled at limiting explosiveness last season, finishing in the top 10 nationally. That's a requirement against a Maryland offense filled with weapons that finished second in explosiveness last season.
Our Action Network power ratings make this game Maryland -2.5, while the latest SP+ numbers have only a 1.9 point different between these two teams.
We'll soon find out if our power ratings simply haven't caught up to head coach Mike Locksley's squad, or if Maryland’s market value is super inflated after two blowout wins to start the year. I’m willing to bet on the latter.
Stuckey: Akron +110 (at Central Michigan)
- Spread: Central Michigan -1
- Over/Under: 45
- Location: Mt Pleasant, MI
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
I owe Collin a winner after starting 0-2 this season, although I don't regret either play so far.
So, where am I going this week? The lowly Akron Zips on the road. Gross … trust me, I'm aware, but hear me out.
I also would prefer not to ever bet on Akron, especially on the road in a game I had circled as a loss for the Zips and one of the reasons I bet their season win total under. But things change and Central Michigan is in complete shambles right now.
The Chippewas not only got beat down 61-0 last week against Wisconsin, they lost their starting quarterback, running back and defensive end in the process (CMU was out-gained 599-58 by the Badgers).
Without quarterback Quinten Dormady, David Moore will get the start under center. The Garden City Community College transfer went 3-of-11 for 1 yard (not a typo) in his debut last week when he replaced the injured Dormady.
There aren't many strengths on either team, but each run defense has been pretty respectable. CMU has only allowed 3.8 yards per carry (66th in country), while Akron has actually been a little better in that department at 3.6 (57th nationally).
Don't expect either rush offense to do much of anything. Akron simply can't run the ball, averaging a pathetic 1.5 yards per carry. Only West Virginia is averaging fewer at 1.1 a pop. Meanwhile, Central has had a little more success on the ground but will be without starting running back Jonathan Ward.
That means this will come down to who can make more plays through the air — assuming Akron doesn't vomit the game away with turnovers and special teams mistakes, which is always possible.
If that's the case, you have to fancy Akron in a matchup of two wretched pass defenses. Both teams were actually decent against the pass last year, but departures left them bare.
Central Michigan's passing offense is just dreadful. The Chips ranked 129th in S&P passing offense last season, and will now have to do without Dormady. Not great, Bob.
Without Dormady and Ward, their two best offensive players, this is the worst offense in the country (it might already be when both are healthy).
Akron will have the much more talented quarterback in Kato Nelson, who has had his fair of struggles in a new offensive scheme, but has developed a nice rapport with a group of receivers who have put up some decent numbers through two games.
Bottom line: the Akron offense is much more equipped to take advantage of the two vulnerable secondaries in this game.
Again, I apologize in advance for this hold your nose special. Zip It.
