Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Fighting Irish (November 20)
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- Updated odds make Notre Dame 18-point favorites when it faces Georgia Tech on Saturday.
- The Irish have quietly been cruising this season, suffering only one loss to Cincinnati at home.
- Read on for BJ Cunningham's top bet for Saturday's game.
Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
Notre Dame looks to continue its quest for an 11-1 record when it hosts Georgia Tech in South Bend.
Georgia Tech has really been struggling this season, as it currently sits at 3-7 and has lost four straight games in conference play. Defense has been the biggest problem for Yellow Jackets, as they can't stop anyone at the moment.
On top of the defense, starting quarterback Jeff Sims missed the last game and is reportedly in a walking boot.
That means it's going to be tough sledding for Georgia Tech on Saturday.
Notre Dame got a gift last weekend with Brennan Armstrong being absent for its trip to Charlottesville.
Notre Dame now has quietly put itself in the College Football Playoff discussion, as the Fighting Irish could get the four seed if a doomsday scenario happens. However, they'll need to win their last two games and hope everyone else loses multiple times for that to happen.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Offense
Georgia Tech's offense has been below average this season, ranking 86th in Success Rate and 57th in EPA/Play.
If Sims is out again, that will mean that Jordan Yates will be under center for the fourth time this season. In his four starts this season, Yates has not been very effective, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and a 59.5 passing grade with nine turnover-worthy plays in those four starts, per PFF.
The way to beat Notre Dame is to attack its secondary, so I am not sure Georgia Tech is well equipped to do that on the road in 15 MPH winds.
Georgia Tech is running the ball 55.7% of the time this season and has been very average, gaining 4.8 yards per rush. However, the Yellow Jackets are 80th in Rushing Success Rate, 73rd in Offensive Line Yards and PFF has them graded at 115th in terms of a run-blocking grade.
So, going up against a Notre Dame front seven that has been stout against the run is not a good matchup for the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech Defense
Georgia Tech's defense has had major concerns this season and the game against Boston College was a perfect example. The Eagles averaged 15.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.1 yards per rush.
The Yellow Jackets can't stop the run at all, as they rank 88th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 91st in Defensive Line Yards and 83rd in terms of a run defense grade, per PFF. So, going up against Kyren Williams, who has been on fire lately, is a really bad matchup.
The Georgia Tech secondary, though, has been so unbelievably bad. The Yellow Jackets are allowing a whopping 9.7 yards per attempt and rank 120th in terms of a coverage grade.
The Notre Dame passing attack with Jack Coan has been improving during Notre Dame's win streak, so the Irish should be able to move the ball with ease on Saturday.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Offense
With Coan under center, the Fighting Irish offense has been very average but has improved.
Coan has had success throwing the ball this season, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, and has Notre Dame ranked 38th in Passing Success Rate. Notre Dame should be able to throw the ball on one of the worst secondaries in college football.
The rushing attack has really struggled from a Success Rate standpoint, ranking 88th in the country and also 98th in Offensive Line Yards, but Williams has been on fire during their win streak.
Williams has rushed for 583 yards and 6.01 yards per carry in his last five games. This is again a great matchup for Notre Dame offensively against a Georgia Tech defense that can't stop anything right now.
Notre Dame Defense
The Notre Dame defense has been above average this season, allowing only 5.1 yards per play and ranking 33rd in Success Rate Allowed.
Notre Dame's secondary has been solid this season, allowing 7.0 yards per attempt and ranking in the top 45 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, passing explosiveness allowed and coverage, per PFF. It should be able to slow down a below-average passing attack potentially with a backup quarterback.
The strength of the Notre Dame defense, though, is in its front seven, as the Fighting Irish are only allowing 3.8 yards per carry and rank 32nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 38th in Defensive Line Yards. They should be able to shut down Georgia Tech's rushing attack.
Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 57 | 52 | |
| Big Play | 61 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 15 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Notre Dame Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 88 |  |
| Line Yards | 98 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 110 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 87 | 103 | |
| Big Play | 70 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 2 |
| Coverage | 120 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 61 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 91 | 54 |
| Plays per Minute | 53 | 58 |
| Rush Rate | 55.7% (59) | 53.% (81) |
Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
Even though Notre Dame's numbers aren't at the level of an eighth-ranked team in the country, it has a fantastic matchup against a very below-average Georgia Tech team that can't stop anything on defense.
Notre Dame opened at -14.5 but has been bet up to -17 with 98% of the money is on the Irish. I have Notre Dame projected at -19.1, so I think there's some value on Notre Dame at -17 or better.
Pick: Notre Dame -17 or better
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