College Football Odds & Picks for Maryland vs. Indiana: How to Bet This Big Ten Over/Under
Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Penix Jr.
- Coming off a close loss against Ohio State, Indiana looks to get back on track against Maryland.
- Michael Penix Jr. and Taulia Tagovailoa lead two offenses that have put up impressive numbers this season.
- Michael Calabrese explains why he's betting the over in Bloomington.
Maryland vs. Indiana Odds
|Maryland Odds||+11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Indiana Odds||-11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+340 / -470 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, noon ET|
Standard situational angles that used to be meaningful in the world of college football gambling have been completely thrown out the window this season. Letdowns, lookaheads, short weeks, extended layoffs, and home-field advantage have all been tossed in the blender of 2020.
As a result, I’ve stepped away from situational plays and started evaluating teams on their ceilings. In the case of Indiana and Maryland, that means scoring a lot of points in this game.
Taulia Tagovailoa has been a revelation since seizing the starting job in College Park. The Ewa Beach, Hawaii, native has posted QBRs of 91 and 96.7 in back-to-back games and accounted for eight touchdowns against just one turnover. With Tagovailoa calling the shots, the Terps have a chance to score in the 30s against an Indiana defense that has allowed a hefty number of big plays this season (24 20+ yard plays, 56th).
Offensively, the Hoosiers have scored 36 points or more in four of their five contests and just threw for 491 yards against Ohio State in Columbus. Maryland is allowing 474 yards per game, and that includes games against Northwestern and Penn State this season, a pair of offenses that wouldn’t aptly be described as dynamic.
This game screams “over,” and the fact that you can grab it in the 62-point range is nothing short of a Feast Week gift.
Tua’s little brother is eating up the column inches these days, but a lot of his success can be attributed to freshman phenom Rakim Jarrett. Both Pro Football Focus and 247Sports named Jarrett the national true freshman of the week in his last game. The receiver has added an explosive element to a Maryland offense that was in desperate need of a spark.
Maryland freshman WR Rakim Jarrett had his breakout game this past week vs Penn State. Stat: 5/144/2
— Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive) November 12, 2020
Last week, Indiana allowed both Ohio State playmakers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to torch their secondary, and I don’t foresee much of an improvement here this week against Jarrett. Both Olave and Wilson eclipsed 100 receiving yards and combined for 15 receptions.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the Hoosiers surrendered over 300 yards on the ground. If Maryland can even approach half of that production, it’ll generate enough scoring opportunities to score north of four touchdowns in Bloomington. Former Damascus High School standout Jake Funk isn’t on the level of Master Teague, but he has added a downhill rushing element to Maryland’s attack. If Scottie Montgomery can force Indiana to respect the run, I think we’re in for a high-scoring affair.
In a normal year, I’d be fading Indiana in this spot coming off of an emotional near-miss against the Buckeyes. But given the general temperament of Tom Allen and the steady play of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., I have a feeling they’ll rebound nicely against a Maryland defense that is a complete work-in-progress.
Keep in mind, the Terrapins’ defense got bombarded by Northwestern and Minnesota to open the season, and it has proven to be powerless when it comes to generating negative plays on defense (103rd in Defensive Havoc).
Last season, Indiana averaged 33 points per game coming off of a loss, and given the College Football Playoff committee’s ranking, IU still has a New Year’s Day bowl to play for. That should be more than enough motivation to come out swinging.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It will be a perfect fall afternoon on Saturday in Bloomington, which sets up for a wild matchup between two suspect defenses. From a game-flow perspective, if the Hoosiers hop out to an early lead, they can speed up the Terrapins, whose preferred pace (125th) is the only red flag this game has to offer when considering the over. I love this game at its current total (62.5) and would play it up to 67.5.
Pick: Over 62.5 (up to 67.5).