Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech College Football Odds, Picks, Preview: Cowboys Must Avoid Look-Ahead Game in Lubbock
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Sanders.
- Oklahoma State travels to Lubbock for a meeting with Texas Tech ton Saturday.
- The Cowboys are tied for first in the Big 12, but must avoid let-down against the Red Raiders with a looming date versus Oklahoma.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down where he sees betting value in this Big 12 matchup.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds
|Oklahoma State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Texas Tech Odds|
-110o / -110u
Oklahoma State looks to notch a win in Lubbock before a huge showdown against Oklahoma next weekend.
The Cowboys are starting to look like a juggernaut after back-to-back dominant wins over West Virginia and TCU. However, this is a massive look-ahead spot for the Cowboys with Bedlam next weekend, which could decide who goes to the Big 12 title game.
Texas Tech pulled off a huge upset last weekend at home, beating Iowa State to become bowl eligible and bring its record to 6-4.
The Red Raiders fired Matt Wells midway through the season, and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie has been holding down the fort until Joey McGuire takes over next season.
Oklahoma State torched a really bad TCU defense last weekend for a whopping 682 yards, including 447 on the ground. While Oklahoma State has been below average offensively all season long, the game plan has been clear for Mike Gundy: run the ball.
The Cowboys have kept the ball on the ground 61.7% of the time, which is the 18th-highest rate in college football. However, despite the gaudy stats they put up last weekend, they haven't been very effective ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and rushing explosiveness.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, running the ball is not how you beat Texas Tech's defense effectively.
Spencer Sanders and the passing attack have rarely been called upon this season, but they've been much more effective than the rushing attack. Sanders is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and has an 83.8 passing grade, per PFF.
Texas Tech is outside the top 100 in every single defensive passing metric, so Sanders will likely be able to throw all over their secondary.
Oklahoma State is the best defensive team in the Big 12 by a mile. The Cowboys are only allowing 4.3 yards per play and rank fifth in Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play.
Outside of Georgia and Wisconsin, Oklahoma State might be the third-best defense in the country at defending the run. The Cowboys are third in EPA allowed per rush, 10th in Rushing Success Rate, fifth in Defensive Line Yards and eighth in terms of PFF's run defense grade.
Oklahoma State should be able to slow down a Texas Tech rushing attack that is gaining 4.8 yards per carry and has yet to play a defense ranked inside the top 30 in terms of EPA allowed per rush since its opening game against Houston.
What will be interesting in this game is if Oklahoma State can slow down Texas Tech's high-powered passing attack.
The Red Raiders are now on their third quarterback this season, but they're still a top-15 passing attack. Oklahoma State is 32nd in Passing Success Rate allowed but will have a big advantage against Texas Tech's offensive line.
Texas Tech has been terrible in pass protection this season, ranking 119th in terms of a pass-blocking grade and 43rd in Havoc Allowed, while Oklahoma State is 13th in Havoc and 32nd in PFF's pass-rushing grade.
Red Raiders Offense
Despite firing Wells in the middle of the season, Cumbie has the Red Raider offense firing on all cylinders.
Texas Tech is 10th in the nation in Success Rate and is gaining a whopping 6.7 yards per play. The Red Raiders have a very balanced offense, splitting between the run and the pass at close to 50% of the time, mainly due to the fact that they've been effective in both facets.
Texas Tech is 44th in Rushing Success Rate, 35th in Line Yards and 35th in EPA/Rush. However, as previously mentioned, the Red Raiders haven't faced a front seven even close to as good as Oklahoma State's since Houston.
Texas Tech is now on its third quarterback of the season with Tyler Shough out for the season and Henry Colombi getting benched in favor of Donovan Smith, who started in the win against Iowa State this past weekend.
Smith was very effective against an average Cyclones secondary, throwing for 10.1 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.
TOUCHDOWN TEXAS TECH
— Sideline CFB (@SidelineCFB) November 13, 2021
However, this is a bad spot for a freshman making his second start against an Oklahoma State secondary that is 11th in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF.
Red Raiders Defense
Texas Tech's defense is really bad and can't seem to stop anything right now. The Red Raiders are 110th in Success Rate Allowed and 118th in EPA/Play allowed.
The front seven has been getting gashed all season long, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and ranks 94th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. That is not good news against a team that runs as much as the Cowboys.
The real issues for Texas Tech though are in the secondary. The Red Raiders are allowing 10.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, which is bottom-five in college football. They're also 115th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 104th in passing explosiveness allowed, and 122nd in EPA allowed per pass.
Texas Tech is also 128th in Finishing Drives, so I have no idea how it's going to stop Oklahoma State's offense, even if the Cowboys haven't been that great from a Success Rate standpoint.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Texas Tech match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Texas Tech Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||58||6|
|Plays per Minute||45||80|
|Rush Rate||61.7% (18)||52.6% (83)|
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
Even though Texas Tech has a very high-powered offense, this is a great matchup for Oklahoma State, which has the best defense the Red Raiders have seen since the beginning of September.
The struggles of the Texas Tech defense are going to be all too apparent as well if Oklahoma State's offense continues to click like it did against TCU last weekend.
I have Oklahoma State projected at -14.7, so I think there's some value on the Cowboys at -10 or better.