Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds & Pick: How We’re Betting Friday’s In-State College Football Rivalry
Jonathan Ferrey/Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Shough.
- No. 15 Oregon and in-state conference rival Oregon State cap off Friday's college football action at 7:30 p.m. ET.
- The Ducks and Beavers both boast explosive and effective offensive attacks, but Collin Wilson explains why the handicap really comes down to each team's ability to finish drives.
- Below, find Collin's comprehensive betting guide, complete with in-depth analysis, updated odds, plus his pick for Friday night's Pac-12 rivalry showdown.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds
|Oregon Odds||-13.5 (-113) [BET NOW]|
|Oregon State Odds||+13.5 (-108) [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-670 / +380 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||64 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The headline from head coach Mario Cristobal’s presser on Monday focused on linebacker Noah Sewell’s status. The freshman suffered injury against UCLA, but Sewell may be able to suit up for Oregon State. Most box scores may not underline his importance to the defense with nine tackles and two sacks, but Sewell leads the team in defensive stops (defined by Pro Football Focus as a tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense).
The Ducks could use all the defensive help possible they can get, with a tackling grade rank of 93rd and a success rate outside the top 80. Oregon has not been able to generate much quarterback pressure with the exception of Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has nine of the team’s 28 pressures.
Offensively, new coordinator Joe Moorhead has quarterback Tyler Shough on a path to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Oregon has shown plenty of success in the rush game, but Shough’s arm has made the difference in passing downs. Shough has the highest NFL rating among all Power 5 quarterbacks that have attempted at least 10 deep targets.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to come back against Cal for the first win of the season. Junior Jermar Jefferson continues to be one of the best running backs in the nation, averaging 11 yards per carry against the Bears. Jefferson provides much-needed explosiveness in the ground game, averaging 3.97 yards after contact.
First play and IT'S A JERMAR JEFFERSON TOUCHDOWN!
— Oregon State Football News (@BeaverFBNews) November 21, 2020
The quickest way to shut down the Oregon State offense is to win standard downs. The Beavers have just five passes over 20 yards through three games, per SportSource Analytics. The drop-off is particularly evident when quarterback Tristan Gebbia faces pressure on passing downs. The Junior has a 76% adjusted completion percentage; but in 30 drop backs with pressure, that number falls to 45%.
Pressure has been an issue for the Oregon State defense, which has only accumulated three sacks and six batted balls. The Beavers have not been able to force opposing offenses off the field, ranking 105th in opponent third-down conversions.
Betting Analysis & Pick
CLICK THE DROPDOWN ARROW TO VIEW COLLIN’S MATCHUP MATRIX
Per the Action Network’s matchup matrix, offenses should dominate this game. Both teams have top-25 marks in offensive finishing drives, while Oregon State runs at a tempo that is top-30 in seconds per play.
The handicap on Oregon State is simple enough: Stop a one-dimensional rushing attack. Teams that send pressure on passing downs have had great success against the Beavers.
However, the question remains if Oregon can win on standard downs. Early indications are that the Ducks will not. The Oregon defense ranks 106th in standard downs success rate and 58th in standard downs explosiveness. Those poor metrics bode ominously against the Beavers’ third-place offensive rank in standard downs success rate.
Both teams will get into scoring position with each drive, but can either team get points on the board? The Ducks rank top-25 in defensive finishing drives, allowing just 2.9 points when opponents cross the 40-yard line. Meanwhile, the Beavers have been one of the better teams in forcing field goals, ranking 13th in opponent touchdown percentage in the red zone. Place kicker Camden Lewis may be under the microscope in this game, hitting just one of four field goal attempts this season.
Look for the total to continue to steam throughout the week as both offenses have plenty of advantages. The Ducks defensive finishing drives and Beavers ability to force field goals will have us take a pre-kick under in a series that had just 34 points last season.
Pick: Under 64.5 or better.