College Football Odds & Picks for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: Bet the Pokes Over Red Raiders
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Chuba Hubbard.
- The Cowboys of Oklahoma State will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday.
- Oklahoma State's defense has been one of the best in the conference, while Texas Tech typically features a high-flying offense.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the game and shares a betting pick below.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds
|Texas Tech Odds||+11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Oklahoma State Odds||-11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+330 / -440 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||56 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, noon ET|
After falling to Oklahoma, 41-13, last weekend, Oklahoma State will need a win over Texas Tech to keep its hopes alive for a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Red Raiders sit at 3-5 and are coming off a one-point win over Baylor two weeks ago. It’s a rebuilding year for Matt Wells, and he’ll need to win on Saturday to have a chance at finishing the season at .500.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Despite throwing the ball 58% of the time, Texas Tech’s passing attack has been incredibly inefficient in 2020. Henry Colombi has been under center for the lion’s share of the season, but Alan Bowman is healthy again and was able to lead Tech to its win over Baylor. That said, neither quarterback has been all that effective as they are both operating at under 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season and neither QB has been able to eclipse the 300-yard mark in the last six games.
That is inexcusable for an Air Raid offense in the Big 12, especially since Texas Tech is loaded at wide receiver. The good news is that SaRodorick Thompson has been a bright spot in the running game, carrying the ball for 5.4 yards per attempt.
That begs the question: Why isn’t offensive coordinator David Yost featuring the run game more often? The Red Raiders were much more balanced in their last game against Baylor, going with almost a 50-50 split.
Perhaps this is the week to go more run-heavy since Oklahoma State boasts one of the best secondaries in the Big 12.
It’s a tale as old as time. Texas Tech can’t stop the pass.
That trend has continued into 2020, as the Red Raiders — despite adding talent in their secondary — are still near the bottom of the Big 12 in Defensive Passing Success. They have also been prone to giving up big plays, ranking 68th in defensive passing explosiveness.
Things haven’t been much better for the Red Raiders when trying to stop the run. Texas Tech is allowing 4.8 yards per attempt and is 114th in the country in Defensive Rushing Success. Even though Chuba Hubbard is having a down season compared to 2019, he should be able to run the ball all over Texas Tech’s defense.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
This is a different Oklahoma State team than year’s past. By that I mean, it’s not the fast-paced, light-up-the-scoreboard offense that we’ve seen over the past few seasons.
Quarterbacks Spencer Sanders and Shane Illingworth have both been pretty average this season, throwing for 7.7 and 7.0 yards per attempt, respectively, and only have eight touchdown passes total between them.
Sanders is also questionable to play in this game, but it really shouldn’t matter who is starting at quarterback, because Oklahoma State’s success is going to come on the ground.
Coming into the season, Hubbard was poised for a breakout season, but so far it’s been fairly pedestrian. He’s managed to gain only 4.7 yards per carry, as injuries have plagued him. However, he should be able to run all over Texas Tech; it will be the worst rush defense he’s seen since Kansas.
Despite giving up 41 points to Oklahoma last weekend, the Cowboys have the best defense in the Big 12. They’ve allowed only 4.7 yards per play and rank fifth in the country in Defensive Success Rate, per College Football Data.
The Cowboys’ secondary, which is ranked fourth in Passing Success, has been the key component of the Pokes’ defensive ascendance. The Cowboys are allowing only 6.5 yards per attempt, so Bowman and the Red Raiders are most likely going to struggle throwing the ball on Saturday.
However, the Cowboys are not a one-trick pony; they’ve been stout against the run as well. The Pokes rank 20th in Defensive Rushing Success, 11th in Power Success Allowed, and 12th in Stuff Rate.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oklahoma State’s loss to Oklahoma was not indicative of how good the Cowboys can be on their day. Their defense should be able to dominate this game, which should give Hubbard and Co. plenty of scoring opportunities.
I have Oklahoma State projected at -14.26, so I think there’s value on the Cowboys at -11. However, I would only play it up to -11.5.
Pick: Oklahoma State -11 (up to -11.5).