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College Football Odds & Sharp Picks: How Pros Are Betting the Utah State vs. Nevada Spread & Total

College Football Odds & Sharp Picks: How Pros Are Betting the Utah State vs. Nevada Spread & Total article feature image

George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Deven Thompkins

College Football Odds: Utah State vs. Nevada

Utah State Odds +18
Nevada Odds -18
Over/Under 56.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
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The second of 20 consecutive days of football begins with a 7 p.m. ET Mountain West Conference kickoff. And it’s one that sharps have been all over throughout the week.

Not only have they caused significant movement to this spread, but they’ve also taken a slight stand on the total. And thanks to our PRO Report feature, both opinions are clearly brought to light.

Let’s take a look.

Note: Data as of 9:30 a.m. ET.

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College Football Sharp Pick: Utah State vs. Nevada Spread

Big bets from sharps have caused a significant shift on tonight’s spread throughout the week. But with that shift, our projections now show that this line might be getting too high.

Sharp Action

Any line move through two key numbers (14 and 17, in this case) likely has something to do with sharp action, so a simple comparison of opening to current lines would suffice in determining the sharp side for a game like this.

But in case there was any doubt, Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market activity that would be caused specifically by sharp action, have been triggered six times on Nevada, at numbers ranging from -14.5 to -17, leading to the current spread.

Sharp Action: Nevada

Big Money

Also helping to reveal the sharp side of this matchup has been the discrepancy between bets and money landing on Nevada.

As favorites often do, the Wolfpack have attracted the majority of bets tonight (64%). But as of writing, that 64% has generated 87% of actual money landing on the spread. That means Nevada is landing much bigger bets.

And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharps, especially over a large sample, so a discrepancy such as this one certainly can be used as another hint toward the pro side.

Big Money edge: Nevada

Model Projections

As mentioned, this significant shift has brought a projections edge into play. Since our model was closer to the original number — listing this game at Nevada -12.5 — it would follow that it now suggests value on the underdog following the line move.

Model Projections edge: Utah State

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College Football Sharp Pick: Utah State vs. Nevada Total

It hasn’t been quite the move we’ve seen on the spread, but this total has also risen thanks to a similar story in the betting market.

Sharp Action

Aside from all the Nevada action, the only other sign of a professional opinion on this game that’s been confirmed by a Sports Insights Bet Signal has been that of the over.

With that slight backing from sharps, this total has inched up a bit — which also makes sense given the massive spread move toward the favorite — from 55 to 56.5.

Sharp Action edge: Over

Big Money

Like favorites, overs are also preferred plays for the majority of bettors — people often want to root for offense rather than defense. So it’s no surprise to see 62% of bets landing on the over in this game.

But once again, that majority has generated a much heavier majority of actual money — 80% in this case. That, again, serves as another hint toward the sharp side.

Big Money edge: Over

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