College Football Odds, Picks: Week 4’s Biggest Stat Discrepancies, Including Stanford vs. Washington
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee.
Week 4’s college football slate features a number of statistical discrepancies for categories that are key to covering the spread.
From conference matchups like USC vs. Oregon State and Clemson vs. Wake Forest to a Power Five vs. Group of Five games like Central Michigan vs. Penn State, there are major differences in Success Rate, Havoc, Finishing Drives and more.
Check out four key discrepancies for Week 4 below.
USC at Oregon State
USC Pass Blocking, 9th · Oregon State Pass Rush, 116th
Oregon State Offensive Finishing Drives, 13th · USC Defensive Finishing Drives, 50th
Two teams with perfect against-the-spread records will meet in Corvallis for pole position in the Pac-12.
As expected, USC has been flammable on offense, already scoring 152 points through three games against FBS opponents. The Trojans rank top-15 in numerous categories from Success Rate to Line Yards.
Oregon State ranks 116th in pass rush, per PFF, indicating Caleb Williams will see no pressure behind a line with a pass-blocking rank of ninth.
The question is if Oregon State can score enough to cover a spread that Action Network projects at USC -6.5.
The Beavers elect to rush on 59% of snaps, a positive against a Trojans defense that ranks 82nd in Line Yards and 97th in Defensive Rush EPA.
Offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren’s unit continues to perform in scoring position. Oregon State has crossed the 40-yard line on 22 possessions this season, averaging 5.4 yards per trip.
Clemson at Wake Forest
Clemson Pass Blocking, 67th · Wake Forest Pass Rush, 1st
Wake Forest Rushing Success Rate, 129th · Clemson Defensive Rushing Success Rate, 27th
The addition of coordinator Brad Lambert is playing dividends for the Wake Forest defense. Already owning best pass-rush grade of all teams in FBS, the Demon Deacons also rank 13th in coverage and seventh in Havoc.
The Clemson offensive line has issues preventing pressure, specifically guard Walker Parks, who has allowed seven pressures in 100 pass-blocking snaps.
Expect Wake Forest to throw early and often, as Dave Clawson fields one of the worst offensive rush units. The Demon Deacons are near last in Rushing Success Rate, a frightening stat against a Clemson defense that ranks 27th in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in Line Yards.
Wake will be forced to throw often, another factor that heavily favors a Clemson defense that ranks ninth in coverage grading.
Central Michigan at Penn State
Central Michigan Tackling, 11th · Penn State Tackling, 125th
The explosive Daniel Richardson and Lew Nichols III offense rolled against Bucknell, as the quarterback and running back recorded two touchdowns apiece.
Nichols’ dual-threat ability gave Oklahoma State issues in Week 1, as the Pokes allowed 529 total yards to the Chippewas.
When facing a combination of skill positions like Central Michigan possesses, Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz must emphasize fundamentals.
Penn State grades 125th in tackling, per PFF. On the short season, 21 players have already recorded a missed tackle on defense. The main culprits come at that edge position in Nick Tarburton and Chop Robinson.
If Nichols and Richardson can get outside of contain, the Chippewas could create chunk yardage. If not, Richardson will face a Penn State back seven that ranks 91st in coverage.
Stanford at Washington
Stanford Offensive Finishing Drives, 5th · Washington Defensive Finishing Drives, 65th
Washington Havoc Allowed, 7th · Stanford Havoc, 109th
Washington blitzed a Michigan State secondary that was down multiple key defenders. New head coach Kalen DeBoer has energized an offense to be one of the most successful passing attacks in the nation behind transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
The key to the offense has been stability with a rank of seventh in Havoc Allowed. In 227 offensive snaps, the Huskies have recorded just a single interception and the fifth-best mark nationally in tackles for loss allowed.
Stanford may find similar success as Michigan State on the offensive side of the ball. Despite being down the best player on the team in wide receiver Jayden Reed, the Spartans generated 323 passing yards for a struggling Payton Thorne.
The Cardinal have been excellent in scoring attempts, averaging 5.7 points on 11 trips across the 40-yard line. The Huskies are mid-FBS defensively in allowing points to teams in scoring opportunities.