College Football Odds, Forecasts (Saturday, Dec. 5): Windy Weather Moving Navy vs. Tulsa, Penn State vs. Rutgers Totals
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kerchner.
- Since 2005, college football games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 57% rate on a sample of more than 1,000 games (566-434-34).
- Danny Donahue outlines the two matchups that could fall under this criteria on Saturday.
It’s not much of a secret that weather can affect the outcome of a football game. And as such, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that oddsmakers often shift lines on account of game conditions.
However, what might not be as well known is just how much weather — and in particular, wind — matters. Thankfully, we have a database that can tell us exactly that.
Since 2005, college football games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 57% rate (at the closing number) on a sample of more than 1,000 games (566-434-34).
And while it diminishes the sample, bumping the threshold up to 17+ mph increases the win rate to 59%. That may be worth noting for the pair of potentially wind-impacted games on Saturday’s slate.
College Football Windy Weather Forecasts
Odds, forecasts as of 8 a.m. ET Friday.
Penn State vs. Rutgers
12 p.m. ET | B1G Network | Piscataway, N.J.
- Projected wind speeds: 15 mph
- O/U open to current: 57.5 to 52.5 (see live odds)
Tulsa vs. Navy
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2 | Annapolis, Md.
- Projected wind speeds: 15 to 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 49.5 to 45.5 (see live odds)