As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
My primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals, and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my eight favorite Week 9 spots and also included six other potential looks on the radar.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 30-26-2 (53.6%)
- Overall: 199-149-3 (57.2%)
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 9 slate.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Wake Forest +3.5 |
  | 12:45 p.m. | Arkansas +1.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | South Carolina +12.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Iowa State -2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | NC State +6.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Fresno State +3.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Baylor +4.5 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | Kentucky +9 |
Wake Forest +3.5 vs. SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Until last week (a road upset over a banged-up Clemson team playing with its backup quarterback), SMU had been extremely disappointing, failing to exceed oddsmakers' expectations in all but one game.
That one cover came against lowly Stanford in a game where the Mustangs pulled away late to get outside the number.
However, they outgained Stanford by only 16 yards in a game in which the Tree had 10 penalties and a -2 turnover margin. Stanford also failed to score twice inside the SMU 5, with one of those possessions ending in a 96-yard pick-six.
Even the week prior, against a Syracuse team also playing with a backup quarterback, the Orange actually finished with a 389-370 net yardage advantage. Still, they couldn't overcome a -2 turnover margin and a 2-for-5 performance on fourth-down attempts.
My primary point here is that SMU is not the same caliber of team as last year's playoff bunch.
This week, the Mustangs find themselves in a brutal situational spot, having to travel back out east for a second straight road game (with a noon ET kick) following the emotional upset of Clemson to exact ACC Championship revenge with a match against ACC favorite Miami on deck.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is coming off a bye, which should enable the Demon Deacons to get much healthier after dealing with a slew of injuries before their two-week break.
I also value bye weeks more highly for teams such as Wake that experienced mass roster and staff turnover in the offseason. Keep in mind that after its first bye week earlier in the season, Wake Forest lost in overtime on a failed two-point attempt against undefeated Georgia Tech. Tech, meanwhile, needed a last-second field goal to force overtime.
The Wake offense continues to blossom under Jake Dickert, who should benefit from installing even more new looks with a brand-new team.
Additionally, the Demon Deacon defense might be one of the most underrated units in the country.
Not enough people are talking about the job new defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is doing on that side of the ball. Wake has seemingly nailed most of its transfer portal additions.
Across similar strengths of schedule, Wake Forest actually has a +1.3 net yards per play margin compared to SMU's +0.8.
The defense also ranks in the top-20 nationally in yards per play and Pass Success Rate allowed, which are key against SMU's pass-heavy offense.
The Wake defense also ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate, which could spell trouble for Kevin Jennings, who has seen his turnover-worthy play rate spike immensely when under pressure over the past two seasons.
Additionally, the SMU offense is built on getting chunk yards after the catch (top-15 in the country in YAC average), but that might prove more difficult against a Wake Forest defense that ranks sixth in that department.
I'm assuming we see quarterback Robby Ashford back under center, but there's a chance Deshawn Purdie gets some looks after the uber-talented transfer looked spectacular in a surprise start for a banged-up Ashford before the bye week.
If it is Ashford, we'll have to avoid a couple of boneheaded throws, but he has at least excelled at avoiding sacks (just one taken over his past 33 pressures), which is key against an SMU defense that hunts sacks as well as any defense in the country.
There will be opportunities to attack this SMU coverage group.
After accounting for the spot, I like anything over a field goal with the Deacs, who should also benefit from a fully healthy Demond Claiborne in the backfield. Let's hope he doesn't blow too many assignments in pass protection, where he really struggles.
Notable Nugget
Jake Dickert owns a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) record as an underdog, covering by over six points per game.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
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Arkansas +1.5 vs. Auburn
12:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
From a pure numbers perspective, I don't see much value in this line, as I only project the Hogs as slight favorites.
However, I love the spot in a battle of two clones who remain winless in SEC play after a number of close calls across two of the top-five most difficult schedules in the country to date.
For what it's worth, Arkansas has played a marginally tougher schedule and has a slightly higher yards-per-play margin (+0.7 to +0.3).
After four straight heartbreaking losses to ranked opponents, I'm not sure how Auburn gets off the mat for an early kick on the road against 2-4 Arkansas.
The vibes couldn't be lower after watching the sidelines at the end of the loss to Missouri. It seems as if the Tigers are waiting for bad things to happen, and who could really blame the kids after such a tragic streak?
They now won't even come close to reaching any of their high preseason expectations for a team many considered a legit sleeper in the SEC. Head coach Hugh Freeze may have lost the locker room, and I'm not sure he'll be able to rally the troops.
In fairness, Arkansas has also been extremely unfortunate in close games against ranked foes.
However, unlike Auburn, it recently fired its head coach, giving the reins to Bobby Petrino, who has seemingly said all of the right things to keep his team motivated.
People I trust close to the program (including my podcast co-host Collin Wilson) are adamant that this team still cares and will continue to fight. That matters against a potentially deflated opponent that may or may not get off the metaphorical bus.
Arkansas has a top-five offense nationally by almost any metric in large part due to Petrino's play-calling and the electric Taylen Green, who might be the nation's most underrated quarterback. If he played for a better team, he'd find himself right in the thick of the Heisman conversation.
I do worry a bit about some potential turnover regression, but his mobility will come in handy against the elite Auburn front.
He can buy time to take advantage of a vulnerable Auburn secondary that ranks outside the top 90 nationally in yards after catch and Pass Success Rate allowed.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn's offense is a complete mess, ranking 112th nationally in yards per play.
While it will undoubtedly have success on the ground against an Arkansas defense that rates horribly in every aspect (130th in yards per play allowed), I'm still not sure the Tigers can ultimately keep up.
The difference in quarterback play in this matchup is as drastic as you'll see in any SEC game all season, regardless of whether Auburn sticks with Jackson Arnold (who has been nearly unplayable) or goes with Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels, who Freeze said will split reps with Arnold this week.
The spread isn't egregious by any stretch. However, I have much more confidence in Arkansas showing up at home under Petrino.
Plus, the Hogs will have a significant special teams edge. Per SP+, Arkansas ranks 11th nationally in that department, while Auburn ranks 121st. That could play a major role in a close game, which is all these two snakebit teams seem to play.
On the injury front, Arkansas won't have Cam Ball up front along the defensive line due to injury but should get back Danny Saili to help mitigate that loss.
More importantly, Auburn lost star center Connor Lew (who will play at the next level) to a season-ending injury last week. True freshman Kail Ellis (one of only two players in all of college football who will play the entire season at 17 years old) took his place last week (40 snaps) and really struggled.
Auburn might go back to the kid or possibly shift starting right tackle Mason Murphy inside. Either way, that's not ideal, especially with a potentially new starting quarterback on the road.
Woo Pig.
Notable Nugget
Bobby Petrino continued his covering ways against Texas A&M in his first home game as the head man in Fayetteville since 2011. He's now 16-5 ATS (76.2%) as the head coach of the Razorbacks in home games against FBS foes.
Pick: Arkansas +1.5 (Play to -1)
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South Carolina +12.5 vs. Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I've hated this South Carolina team since the preseason.
However, at this price, it's finally time to buy low in a dream situational fade spot of Alabama, which just became the first SEC team to beat four consecutive ranked opponents.
The college football season is usually full of ebbs and flows for each team. They are kids, after all.
And I'd be extremely impressed if we get Alabama's best effort after a quartet of all-out emotional wars against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee, with no bye week and a couple of revenge spots mixed in there.
While the Tide deserve a ton of credit for their recent winning streak filled with marquee wins, they easily could have lost one or two of those games with just one or two different bounces.
Just last week against Tennessee, they benefited from a 99-yard pick-six at the end of the half and two other red-zone stops. Against Vanderbilt, two red-zone turnovers did the 'Dores in. Georgia easily could have beaten the Tide if not for a wide-open drop. And Missouri had the ball late with a chance to tie or win in Columbia.
Impressive? Certainly, but there's no denying the Tide also benefited from some nice bounces and fourth-down variance over the past month. They didn't even outgain Tennessee or Missouri.
This isn't some unbeatable Alabama super team (especially in the trenches) of years past. This week, the Tide must get up for another game in Columbia for what becomes basically South Carolina's Super Bowl in the exact spot Alabama has struggled in for years against unranked foes.
I expect a maximum effort from the Gamecocks, who I'm sure have had this game circled after coming up two points short in Tuscaloosa last year in a game they should've won. That loss ultimately kept them out of the College Football Playoff.
South Carolina's defense is still playing at a pretty high level, even after losing a plethora of pro talent. The Gamecocks can still generate pressure, which has troubled the Alabama offense at times this season.
It does look like stud pass rusher Dylan Stewart (and others who left the Oklahoma game due to injury) are all practicing, which is a positive sign for Shane Beamer's bunch, which has been bit hard by the injury bug lately.
The primary problem for South Carolina this season has been the offense. It's been gruesome, in large part due to a dysfunctional offensive line.
However, unlike last week's matchup against Oklahoma (and even LSU and Missouri prior to that), the Tide don't feature a dominant front capable of generating elite-level pressure.
South Carolina still has one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in LaNorris Sellers, who may actually have some time to make things happen this week.
Mobile quarterbacks have also given Alabama's defense fits in recent seasons, and there's a chance South Carolina can even have some semblance of a complementary ground game against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in yards per rush allowed.
Before adjusting for the brutal situational spot, I only project South Carolina as a 10-point underdog, so this was an easy add to the card for a spot I had circled for weeks.
Keep in mind that both teams played Vanderbilt, but Sellers missed most of the game due to injury.
Don't be surprised if Alabama comes out flat in the first quarter, which is usually when they excel and build a margin under DeBoer.
Lastly, in what I believe profiles as a lower-scoring game, special teams could also help South Carolina stay close, as the Cocks do have a substantial edge over Alabama in that area.
And maybe a few bounces go their way against a Tide team that has certainly benefited from a few of those this season en route to a top-three turnover margin in the country (+9).
Notable Nugget
Kalen DeBoer has gone 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite away from home during his tenure at Alabama, failing to cover by an average of 19.2 points per game. That includes four straight outright losses to unranked teams (Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oklahoma and Florida State).
Meanwhile, Shane Beamer is 6-1 ATS (85.7%) against top-10 opponents at South Carolina with a whopping 16.5 point average cover margin. He has pulled off three outright upsets in those seven tries, including a pair as more than a two-touchdown underdog.
Pick: South Carolina +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
Note: I'm waiting to see if this ticks back up before locking it in.
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Iowa State -2.5 vs. BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
For the most obvious situational spot on the board, the market isn't giving us a discount on the Cyclones.
However, I do like them at anything under a field goal.
BYU finds itself in the most brutal week of its entire schedule. It has to travel to Ames after two straight hard-fought wins that easily could've gone the other way.
Against Arizona, the Cougars trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter before tying the game on a last-second touchdown (aided by penalties and a lucky fumble recovery) before going on to win in double overtime.
They followed that performance up with an emotional three-point victory over in-state rival Utah in the Holy War. While I do believe BYU deserved the win, Utah did finish with 100 more net yards and helped the Cougs out with a -2 turnover margin, 12 penalties and three failed fourth-down conversion attempts deep in Cougar territory.
Additionally, this will mark BYU's sixth game in six weeks over a stretch that started with a trip to the East Coast to take on East Carolina (another misleading final score), followed by another road contest in Boulder for another close win.
BYU is a real player in the Big 12 but has undoubtedly been pretty fortunate in close games and in other areas (turnovers, opponent special teams blunders, etc.).
If you had to find the potential flat spot on the BYU schedule, this game would have flashing lights next to it.
While I believe it's a perfect time to sell high on the Cougars ahead of their bye before a showdown with Texas Tech, this may also be the perfect time to buy the dip on Iowa State.
This game comes after two straight close losses and a much-needed bye last week that will enable it to get a bit healthier, which includes the likely return of star kicker Kyle Konrardy, who they have missed sorely over the past few games. With him back in the mix, I give the Cyclones the edge in the special teams department.
Iowa State also had to deal with the loss of its two stud cornerbacks earlier this season. This is a staff that has converted wide receivers into high draft pick cornerbacks in just one season.
The Cyclones will figure some things out on the back end during the break. Plus, it's not like this is a super elite BYU wide receiver room, and Bear Bachmeier certainly has some potential looming turnover regression coming his way (9:5 TD-INT ratio despite a 5:7 BTT-TWP ratio).
My primary concern is whether or not BYU decides to lean on running back LJ Martin behind a very solid offensive line.
Iowa State will likely be without stud defensive tackle Dom Orange, who was listed as doubtful on the first availability report. I did not expect to see that, and it's certainly a major worry. He's the entire defensive front, and the trickle-down effect could be massive.
The Clones don't generate any pressure, which neutralizes BYU's strength in that department. Hopefully, Jon Heacock's defense can confuse a young signal-caller into a few overdue mistakes.
Lastly, for what it's worth, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has thrived following bye weeks. Look no further than their rout of Arizona at home earlier this season. During his time in Ames, Campbell has gone 9-5 ATS (64.3%) following the bye week with a 5.8 point average cover margin (6-2 ATS at home).
Notable Nugget
Top-15 teams coming off an upset win over a ranked opponent have hit at 44% ATS historically in their next game. When that opponent is coming off a bye (like Iowa State), they have gone just 5-19 ATS (20.8%), including 1-9 on the road.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5 or Better
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NC State +6.5 at Pitt
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
Pitt has won and covered three straight games with new freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, but some context is needed.
The Panthers destroyed three teams in absolute free-fall mode in Boston College, Florida State and Syracuse. Those three opponents have lost a combined 13 consecutive games in large part due to major injuries.
As a result, Pitt might be a bit overvalued in the market.
Even last week against a Syracuse team already down to a backup quarterback (and was even using a third-string freshman at one point), Pitt could only muster 255 yards in a game with a very misleading final score.
The Orange turned it over three times, went 1-for-3 on fourth down, and flipped the game with horrid clock management in the first half, leading to a Pitt punt return touchdown.
Meanwhile, Florida State just lost to Stanford, and Boston College's backups are getting blown out every week.
Pitt is also extremely beat up on the defensive side of the ball, where you need to beat their aggressive quarters coverage with explosive passes.
Well, NC State is certainly well-equipped to do just that with quarterback CJ Bailey, who will have his two top receivers back at 100% health in addition to the dynamic Hollywood Smothers in the backfield and Justin Joly, one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the country.
Additionally, Pitt's offense still doesn't have a 100% healthy Desmond Reid, who was on a pitch count last week against Syracuse. He's the most explosive player on the roster for the Panthers.
Plus, Syracuse provided a bit of a blueprint for flummoxing Heintschel by using a high rate of twists and stunts up front and an abundance of exotic blitzes, which ultimately led to seven sacks. The book on Heintschel is out, and NC State had plenty of time to read it.
Earlier this season, NC State handed Virginia its only loss and beat a very underrated Wake Forest team on the road. The Pack also outplayed Duke in an unlucky loss on the road.
But they went on a bit of a skid and bottomed out against Notre Dame in South Bend, which is certainly understandable.
Well, the bye came at a perfect time after seven straight games to open the season, which led to several injuries. The Wolfpack will come out of the break much healthier and should look better on both sides of the ball under two new coordinators.
As I've mentioned countless times this season, I really value these bye weeks for teams that had dual coordinator turnover in the offseason. The freshmen on the back end of the defense could particularly benefit from some additional practice time.
This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Pack while selling high on the Panthers, who always seem to trip up as hopes start to get high in the Steel City.
Notable Nugget
With more than 10 days of prep, NC State head coach Dave Doeren has gone 14-6 ATS (70%), covering by four points per game, including 8-3 on the road.
Pick: NC State +6.5
Note: I'm waiting for a +7 to show but will bet at +6.5 if not.
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Fresno State +3.5 vs. San Diego State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
San Diego State has been one of the most pleasant surprises at the Group of Five level in 2025, particularly on defense, where the Aztecs have excelled.
However, the love has gone a bit too far. I can't get to this number, which I project is closer to a coin-flip.
While both teams are coming off a bye week, I believe it will benefit Fresno more, since the Bulldogs have a completely new staff. There's also talk of a potential quarterback change.
At the bare minimum, expect some new packages for the more mobile quarterback to spark the run game. That could certainly catch the Aztecs off guard. Regardless, the operation should look a lot smoother.
San Diego State's offense still wants to lean on the run while setting up deep shots, usually to the electric Jordan Napier.
However, Fresno's run defense has been pretty stout, and the Bulldogs have one very good cornerback who can travel with Napier.
San Diego State's offense scored only six points against 1-6 Northern Illinois, which runs a defense similar to Fresno State's.
I'm sure defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto spent the bye week talking to some of his old friends in DeKalb, where he came from in the offseason.
I'm still not sold on quarterback Jayden Denegal, who has done most of his damage against very poor defenses, while struggling for the most part against the more competent ones in Fresno's neighborhood. You have two weeks to figure out how to contain Napier, Nick!
The Aztecs' lone other road win came against another 1-6 team in Nevada, and they were blown out earlier this season, 36-13, at Washington State.
As you can probably tell, it hasn't been a murderer's row of a schedule for SDSU (133rd SOS, per Sagarin), with four of their five FBS matchups coming against either backup quarterbacks or ones who have since been benched, which has certainly helped boost their defensive profile.
After getting embarrassed at Colorado State prior to the bye week in a game where Fresno missed a billion tackles, I expect a focused effort here in a battle of two surprise Mountain West teams looking to lock up bowl eligibility before the month of November.
Notable Nugget
SDSU head coach Sean Lewis has gone 8-1 ATS (88.9%) as a road favorite during his two stops at Kent State and San Diego State, covering by 12.33 points per game.
Pick: Fresno State +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Baylor +4.5 at Cincinnati
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Brendan Sorsby has had an amazing year under center for the Bearcats, who remain in the race for a Big 12 title after a 4-0 start in league play.
However, I believe it's time to sell high on Cincy following four straight wins against Kansas (by three in a coin-flip game), Iowa State (by eight in a great spot against a beat-up team), UCF by nine (outgained by more than 100 yards) and Oklahoma State by 32 in a completely misleading final after some garbage time shenanigans (total yardage was 427-377).
Both offenses rank in the top 25 nationally (although I'd take Baylor if given the choice), and both defenses have significant holes.
The Cincinnati defense has benefited from seeing a couple of backup quarterbacks in recent weeks, but it still can't generate any consistent pressure.
While the run defense is a bit sturdier, that doesn't really matter against Baylor, which can't find any semblance of a ground game.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson will have all day to sit in the pocket and take advantage of major advantages on the outside against an overmatched Bearcat secondary.
Yes, you could say the same for the Cincy offense against a bad Baylor defense. And I would agree.
Ultimately, I still have these teams power-rated as essentially equals despite the differences in records. Keep in mind the Bears have played the much tougher schedule to date.
This just screams last team with the ball wins in a high-scoring affair (like most of Baylor's games so far), so I'll happily take the points.
Notable Nugget
Road 'dogs following non-cover streaks of four-plus games (like Baylor) have historically cashed at a 54% clip.
Pick: Baylor +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Kentucky +9 vs. Tennessee
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
I haven't been a believer in this Tennessee team since the summer, and I haven't really changed my tune after four straight non-covers.
Yes, the Vols arguably should have beaten Georgia earlier this season, but they also could've easily lost to Mississippi State and Arkansas. The Hogs, who outgained the Vols, only lost by three in Knoxville despite a -3 turnover margin.
And against the Bulldogs, Tennessee needed a last-minute game-tying touchdown to force overtime, even after getting a defensive touchdown earlier in the fourth quarter.
The defense is just not special, in part because of the absence of its two projected starting cornerbacks, who would have certainly elevated this group as a whole.
The Vols are a poor tackling unit that struggles in short-yardage situations, which should help Kentucky keep the sticks (and the clock) moving throughout.
Tennessee has also struggled to contain wide receivers after the catch, which the 'Cats offense relies upon to sustain drives.
I heard from many during the Kentucky bye week (prior to the Texas game) that quarterback Cutter Boley really benefited from the extra time after taking over for Zach Calzada under center a few games into the season. That makes logical sense for such an inexperienced quarterback.
Well, that certainly proved to be true.
Boley had an outstanding game against an elite Longhorn defense, setting a program freshman record for completion percentage (31-for-40 for 258 yards). The entire operation looked much crisper and seemed to find an identity.
I believe Boley and the entire unit can carry that momentum over into this week against a much softer defense that will allow opponents to methodically move the ball down the field, which is essentially the entire Kentucky offense.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee features a terrific offense led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, running back DeSean Bishop (who not enough people are talking about) and wide receiver Chris Brazzell II.
Aguilar has been particularly lethal throwing the deep ball but still can get a bit careless with the ball under pressure, which the 'Cats can certainly generate.
The Vols will hit their fair share of big plays, but the Kentucky defense can compete on a down-to-down basis.
Keep in mind Kentucky should have beaten Texas (85% post-game win expectancy with over 200 more net yards) and played Ole Miss tight until the very end in a one-possession loss in its two ranked matchups at Kroger Field this season.
While you could argue that either team may be deflated after losses last week, I don't envision that being the case in a rivalry game. If anything, maybe the Vols come out a bit flat, expecting to beat an inferior opponent before facing Oklahoma next week — a game that will undoubtedly make or break their season.
Lastly, if you're looking for small edges, I give Kentucky the nod in the special teams department, while Tennessee has a major penalty problem (118th in penalties per game) that could plague it on the road.
Ultimately, I believe Kentucky remains a bit undervalued coming out of the bye with an improving quarterback after playing one of the five most difficult schedules in the country to date.
To me, this line should be 7, which I believe it would be if Kentucky had scored from the 1-yard line against Texas and/or Tennessee had dropped either game against Mississippi State or Arkansas.
There's also potential for positive regression for the 'Cats in the fourth-down and turnover departments, while the opposite holds true for Tennessee.
Go 'Cats.
Notable Nugget
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel has gone just 8-16 ATS (33.33%) as a conference favorite of seven-plus points, including 0-2 this season against Mississippi State and Arkansas.
The Vols have dominated the 'Cats in Lexington against the spread (9-1 since 2005), but seven of the 10 meetings over that span have been decided by six or fewer points.
Pick: Kentucky +9 (Play to +8)
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Stuckey's Week 9 Quick Hitters
Western Kentucky vs. Miami (OH)
It feels wrong not to have any MACtion included in this piece, so here's a total I played smaller: Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) under 41.5.
We aren't talking enough about the Western Michigan defense, led by Nadame Tucker, who's a menace off the edge. The Broncos have been dominant on that side of the ball, holding their past four opponents to 30 combined points.
This game should feature a bleeding clock with two run-heavy teams that will find enough success on the ground to stick with it against defenses built to limit explosive plays.
And on known passing downs, it's hard to envision either offensive line holding up against the opposing pressure each front can bring.
Miami head coach Chuck Martin always calls these types of high-leverage MAC games very conservatively, and I expect nothing different on Saturday in what should come down to a field position.
It is a low total, so hopefully any turnovers come on the right side of the field.
Texas A&M vs. LSU
I will be obliged to bet LSU at +3 even without Whit Weeks and a potentially fatal situation at left tackle with replacement DJ Chester (who is really just a bad backup center) against the likes of Cashius Howell and company.
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
I like Oklahoma -4.5 against Ole Miss. I believe the Sooners' elite defensive front will completely overwhelm the Ole Miss offensive line and force Trinidad Chambliss into a few key mistakes.
FAU vs. Navy
Unfortunately, I will have a bet on Florida Atlantic +15.5. It's not an ideal spot for the Owls, who have burned me a few times this year with late second-half collapses.
They're coming off a game with a ton of plays against USF, while Navy enjoyed the bye week. However, out of principle, I will almost always fade a service academy as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.
Navy has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (VMI, UAB, Rice, Air Force, Tulsa and Temple) and has only won by more than 14 once in five tries against five FBS opponents, which came by 19 against Tulsa thanks to some late turnovers.
The Mids' six opponents have a combined record of 15-27, with only Temple sporting a winning record, and the Owls should have beaten the Midshipmen if not for a late blown call.
FAU should have no issues moving the ball through the air against a struggling Navy secondary.
For what it's worth, the three service academies have gone 28-44 ATS (38.9%) as favorites of more than two touchdowns since 2005 against FBS foes.
Houston vs. Arizona State
I bet Houston +7.5 earlier in the week in anticipation of a poor injury report for Arizona State, which also finds itself in a tough spot after an emotional comeback win over Texas Tech. It turned out the Sun Devils will indeed be shorthanded.
Most noteworthy is the loss of Jordyn Tyson, who might be the best wide receiver in the country. That could completely neuter the offense and make Houston's game plan much more straightforward.
Additionally, the defense may have to make do without its top pass rusher, starting linebacker and a couple of starting safeties.
The ASU special teams remain an absolute disaster. While head coach Willie Fritz is a covering machine, so is Sam Leavitt (15-2 ATS!).
I don't fully trust this Houston offense on the road, so I may come back for some if the line drops.
Michigan vs. Michigan State
I'm waiting on some injury stuff with Michigan State later in the week, but I may get involved at +14.5 or better if the Spartans get a few key guys back who have been out.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles had his best game of the season by far last week in a heavy, quick-passing attack. There's also a chance that Chiles is just now healthy after rumors were circulating that he wasn't at 100% throughout the early part of the season.
He thrives when he gets rid of the ball quickly (and, historically, against the blitz, which encourages that behavior and is a critical point against a Wink Martindale defense).
This is still a very young Michigan team with a freshman quarterback and what looks like three redshirt freshmen starting on the offensive line this weekend.
As a result, it's not a surprise they haven't looked as strong on the road this season.
Michigan should dominate in the trenches, which is super concerning, but I project this rivalry game under two touchdowns.
