2019 College Football Rankings: AP Poll, CFP Top 25, Betting Power Ratings After Week 11

Nov 10, 2019 02:20 PM EST
Credit:

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J.K. Dobbins

  • We're comparing college football rankings after Week 11 to see which teams are overvalued and undervalued relative to our power ratings.
  • The College Football Playoff Top 25 and AP Poll aim to evaluate past performance, while our power ratings are rooted in boxscore data and are meant to be predictive.
  • Each poll will get a shakeup at the top with Alabama and Penn State going down on Saturday.
  • We've updated our ratings after Week 11 and the AP Poll, but the CFP Top 25 won't come out until Tuesday.

We’ve reached the beginning of the end when it comes to college football rankings — the first College Football Playoff Top 25. Sorry, AP Poll. Your time is done.

The committee released its rankings on Tuesday, sparking plenty of controversy but also plenty of apathy. Saturday, we got some answers on Penn State and Alabama, who both lost outright as nearly touchdown favorites.

Here, we’re comparing our betting power ratings — which are designed to be predictive and can estimate point spreads between any two teams on a neutral field — to the CFP Top 25 and the AP Poll to see how each values the top teams in the nation.

Our power ratings are a great place to start when handicapping a college football slate because they’re rooted in true boxscore data and designed to avoid overreaction. They’re available to Action EDGE members.

2019 College Football Rankings

After Week 11. We’ll update with the AP Poll on Sunday and the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. See below for rankings entering the week.

Before Week 11

 

Ohio State

  • Playoff: 1
  • Our Rankings: 1
  • AP Poll: 3

The Buckeyes have been the most dominant team in the country, and will get two more chances to really prove it — Penn State at home in two weeks and at Michigan to close the season. They’ll likely be -14 or higher in both games.

Alabama

  • Playoff: 3
  • Our Rankings: 2
  • AP Poll: 2

Alabama failed its first test of the season, and while a 46-41 final indicates the game was close, it really wasn’t. LSU controlled it from start to finish.

Clemson

  • Playoff: 5
  • Our Rankings: 3
  • AP Poll: 4

Clemson will be a three-touchdown favorite in all its remaining games, so the Tigers have the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff despite their No. 5 ranking in the initial poll.

LSU

  • Playoff: 4
  • Our Rankings: 4
  • AP Poll: 1

LSU now has four excellent wins — Auburn, Florida, Texas and Alabama. The Tigers have carved their path to the College Football Playoff, and just need to hold serve for the rest of the regular season to get there (in all likelihood).

Oklahoma

  • Playoff: 9
  • Our Rankings: 5
  • AP Poll: 9

Oklahoma’s one loss stung in the eyes of voters and the playoff committee, but our ratings still like the Sooners.

Georgia

  • Playoff: 6
  • Our Rankings: 6
  • AP Poll: 6

There’s a lot to like about Georgia — the overall talent level, the line play on both sides, the dynamic running game — but it feels like the Dawgs are missing a little killer instinct under Kirby Smart.

Still, Georgia controls its own path to the College Football Playoff if it can win out and beat Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship Game.

Penn State

  • Playoff: 4
  • Our Rankings: 7
  • AP Poll: 5

All the debate about whether or not Penn State deserved the No. 4 spot settled itself on Saturday when the Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota.

Utah

  • Playoff: 8
  • Our Rankings: 8
  • AP Poll: 8

Utah would be a small favorite over Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is how things are shaping up now. The winner would have a shot at the College Football Playoff if it wins out.

Auburn

  • Playoff: 11
  • Our Rankings: 9
  • AP Poll: 11

This is the team Auburn is right now — great, but not elite. Despite two losses, we have the Tigers in the top 10.

Oregon

  • Playoff: 7
  • Our Rankings: 10
  • AP Poll: 7

Like Utah, Oregon has a pretty easy road to the finish line. The Ducks will be a double-digit favorite in all their remaining games.

Wisconsin

  • Playoff: 13
  • Our Rankings: 11
  • AP Poll: 16

The Badgers are rated higher in our power ratings than in the polls, and will likely be a touchdown favorite over Minnesota at season’s end, even if the Gophers are ranked higher in traditional polls.

Michigan

  • Playoff: 14
  • Our Rankings: 12
  • AP Poll: 14

Michigan is slowly creeping up the playoff rankings and the AP Poll, but have remained steady in the 12-15 range in our ratings for much of the season.

Florida

  • Playoff: 10
  • Our Rankings: 13
  • AP Poll: 10

We have the Gators a little lower than the national consensus, but this is still a really good team that can hang with almost anyone in the country.

Notre Dame

  • Playoff: 15
  • Our Rankings: 14
  • AP Poll: 16

Notre Dame nearly lost outright to Virginia Tech last week as a big home favorite, but pulled it out. 

Surprisingly, the Irish stayed put in our power ratings despite the sloppy effort, and followed it up with a convincing win over Duke.

Iowa State

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 15
  • AP Poll: NR

Iowa State almost shocked Oklahoma with a wild comeback, but went for a 2-point conversion instead of kicking the PAT to force overtime and didn’t convert. That’s evidence the Cyclones are one of the 25 best teams in the country.

Texas A&M

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 16
  • AP Poll: NR

The Aggies haven’t made much noise in recent weeks because they have three losses, but they’re three pretty good ones — Clemson, LSU and Alabama, our No. 2, 3 and 4 teams in the nation. In two weeks, they get to play at Georgia.

Baylor

  • Playoff: 12
  • Our Rankings: 17
  • AP Poll: 11

Baylor is an interesting case because like Minnesota, it didn’t have any expectations of national contention before the season. But unlike Minnesota, the Bears are actually in our Top 25, despite still being slightly overrated.

The overrated narrative almost came to fruition on Saturday when the Bears needed a 51-yard field goal to force overtime and eventually beat TCU.

Washington

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 18
  • AP Poll: NR

While they’ve fallen out of the national picture at 6-4, the Huskies are still among our top 20.

Texas

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 19
  • AP Poll: NR

The Longhorns are beat up on defense and falling fast in the Big 12 picture. They rebounded to beat Kansas State on Saturday, which keeps them in contention. They’ll need to beat Baylor in two weeks to have a shot at returning to the Big 12 title game.

Iowa

  • Playoff: 18
  • Our Rankings: 20
  • AP Poll: 18

Iowa lost a close one to Wisconsin on Saturday, which will probably drop it out of the AP Poll. The Hawkeyes will remain in the top 20 in our rankings, in all likelihood.

UCF

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 21
  • AP Poll: NR

UCF lost at Tulsa on Friday night as a 16-point favorite, all but ending the Knights’ hopes of another AAC title. They’ll likely drop in our power ratings as a result.

Missouri

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 22
  • AP Poll: NR

Missouri is still appealing a postseason ban, but some perplexing road losses to Wyoming, Kentucky and Vanderbilt (and Georgia) have squashed any hopes at competing for the SEC East title.

Michigan State

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 23
  • AP Poll: NR

Fire this team into the sun. And I would have said that before losing to Illinois on Saturday. Sparty will drop in our power ratings.

TCU

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 24
  • AP Poll: NR

A big win over Texas has vaulted the Frogs into the top 25 of our power ratings, and they could have pushed themselves up even further with a win over Baylor at home on Saturday, but fell short in overtime.

USC

  • Playoff: NR
  • Our Rankings: 25
  • AP Poll: NR

The Trojans are still clinging to a Top 25 spot in our rankings despite getting blown out at home by Oregon last week. It really set USC back in the Pac-12 South race, too, but it did bounce back with a win over Arizona State on Saturday.

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