CFB Sharp Report: How the Pros Are Betting Army vs. Georgia State, 4 Other Saturday Games
Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kelvin Hopkins Jr.
South Carolina shocked the college football world with a 20-17 overtime win last week against Georgia. This week, the Gamecocks return home to host a Florida team coming off its first loss to LSU.
But while the two teams are trending in opposite directions, there’s no question as to which one is the stronger side, and oddsmakers made that clear by opening the Gators as 5.5- to 6-point favorites on the road.
According to sharps, though, that spread is at least a bit off. Is Florida being given too much respect, or have oddsmakers overreacted to last week’s results?
Using the tools available at The Action Network, we can clearly see how sharps are handicapping that matchup, along with four others:
- Kent State at Ohio (12 p.m. ET)
- West Virginia at Oklahoma (12 p.m. ET)
- Toledo at Ball State (2 p.m. ET)
- Army at Georgia State (7 p.m. ET)
Let’s take a look.
Odds as of Friday at 5 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Florida @ South Carolina
12 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Gators may have just suffered their first loss, but it came at the hands of the now-No. 2 team in the country on the road. Florida’s 6-1 record still looms large over South Carolina’s 3-3 mark, and most bettors are counting on a bounceback in Week 8.
Getting 81% of bets in one of the more heavily-bet Saturday games, the Gators’ spread ticket is one of the most common of the weekend. But despite their multiple attempts, oddsmakers haven’t been able to increase this number, as sharps have been all over the home team.
On several occasions, this line has reached the (somewhat) key number of 6. Each time, sharps have pounced, as evidenced by three Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of smart money causing market-wide movement — at that number. Another two signals have hit the Gamecocks at +5.5 and +5, providing evidence that sharps are still confident in South Carolina inside the key number.
Also worth noting is that the 19% of bettors taking the points have generated 27% of actual money, meaning they’re made up of bigger bettors — ones more likely to be sharps.
All of that has brought this line down to Florida -4.5/5.
Sharp angle: South Carolina (moved from +6 to +5)
Kent State @ Ohio
12 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
That bet-vs.-money-discrepancy indicator is far more apparent on Saturday’s Kent State-Ohio over/under. The 31% of bettors taking this over have accounted for an impressive 65% of actual money being wagered.
Four SI Bet Signals on the over (at numbers ranging from 58.5 to 61) have confirmed that money to be of the sharper variety, and as a result, this total has been one of the biggest risers on the slate.
After opening around 60 and seeing a low-mark of 58.5, this total is now up to 63.5 across most of the market, with some books even posting a 64.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 58.5 to 63.5)
West Virginia @ Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET | FOX
Almost an identical story is unfolding in this game … on the opposite bet.
As is the case with most Big 12 games, bettors are flocking to the over — 72% of bettors, to be exact. It’s been the 28% minority on the under, however, that has driven the majority of actual money being wagered (62%).
And once again, four Bet Signals have confirmed the under to be the sharps’ preferred side. In this case, that professional action has dropped the line from openers as high as 68 to the currently listed 63.5.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 68 to 63.5)
Toledo @ Ball State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
It may not be a game that catches the eye of a casual college football fan — or even a diehard, for that matter — but this game has been as big of a target as any for sharp action.
After opening Ball State as a short home dog (+1.5), oddsmakers have flipped the Cardinals to be favorites thanks to some heavy professional action.
Eight Bet Signals have hit Ball State, pushing this line up toward the all-important number of -3 (it currently sits at -2.5). That movement has also been against the direction of the popular side, as 66% of bets have landed on Toledo.
If you’ve picked up on the pattern, you’re probably not surprised to hear that those bets have generated just 36% of actual dollars.
Sharp angle: Ball State (moved from +1.5 to -2.5)
Army @ Georgia State
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Wiseguys are closing out their Saturday card with a similarly under-the-radar matchup. And while the sharp side of this one has also been clear, it’s not been as easy to dissect from line movement alone.
In fact, the early movement in this game trended toward Army, as the Black Knights moved from -5.5 up to a 7-point favorite.
That’s when sharp action began to strike.
Pros were quick to take the points at the key number, triggering three signals at +7, but they weren’t done there. In fact, they’ve continued to hammer Georgia State through the next key number (+6) down to a mix of +5s and +4.5s.
In total, Georgia State (24% of bets, 39% of money) has triggered nine moves. Army has yet to see any sign of buyback.
Sharp angle: Georgia State (moved from +7 to +5)