CFB Sharp Betting Report: Pros Hit UCF-Temple, 4 Other Games
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UCF WR Gabriel Davis
- Sharps are betting five college football games on Saturday, including Penn State vs. Michigan State.
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we examine how pros are betting Saturday's slate.
Saturday’s college football slate is littered with betting edges. Weather, havoc, situational spots and, of course, sharp action are all playing a role in how Week 9’s lines are shaping out.
As for that last factor, it’s hit a handful of games particularly hard, including one of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend in Penn State vs. Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET).
Other games in the mix:
- Syracuse vs. Florida State (3:30 p.m. ET)
- Hawaii vs. New Mexico (4 p.m. ET)
- Central Florida vs. Temple (7 p.m. ET)
- Arizona State vs. UCLA (7:30 p.m. ET)
Let’s take a look at how the pros are approaching them.
Odds as of Friday at 7 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Syracuse @ Florida State
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Who says sharps don’t like to root for points? While overs are generally more rare than unders when it comes to attracting sharp action, there are certainly cases in which wiseguys find value on the higher side of a total, and they often come when the public is going the other way (shocker).
This over has driven just 30% of bets, but those have accounted for a whopping 93% of money being wagered on the total. That means the over is attracting much bigger wagers, which tends to mean sharper wagers.
Four Sports Insights Bet Signals — triggered by market-wide line movement as a result of professional action — have hit the over, confirming those bigger bets to be coming from sharper customers.
In this case, the signals were triggered at lines of 57.5 and 58.5, and have driven the consensus number from 57 to 59. Some shops have continued the rise up to 59.5 and even 60.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 57 to 59) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Penn State @ Michigan State
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
An opening number of +6 falling to +5 may not seem like much, but given that Michigan State is drawing just 38% of bets in what will be one of Saturday’s most heavily bet games, it’s definitely worth looking into, and the full line history tells a much more complete story about the sharp action hitting the Spartans.
This line initially reached +6.5, and a few books even posted a +7, before sharps really started to step in. In total, the pros have triggered seven moves on Michigan State to Penn State’s two.
And while many have come at the all-important +7, sharps have still shown a willingness to bet Sparty inside the key number, which has brought sportsbooks down to the current +5.
Specifically, three signals have come at +6.5 or less.
Sharp angle: Michigan State (moved from +7 to +5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Hawaii @ New Mexico
4 p.m. ET | Facebook Live
While it won’t come close to the number of eyeballs as the other games on this card, this game has actually been one of the prime targets for sharp bettors this week.
Two-thirds of bets have landed on Hawaii, but they haven’t been able to generate even one-third of actual money being wagered, as New Mexico is driving 71%.
That discrepancy, along with six Bet Signals on the Lobos, has dropped this line from +11 to the key number +10, and some books have even moved through the key number to +9.5.
Sharp angle: New Mexico (moved from +11 to +10) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Central Florida @ Temple
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
You might’ve looked at this line, seen Temple getting double-digits at home and thought to yourself, “I’ll bet like a sharp and take the underdog.” I hate to break it to you, but that’s been the popular opinion in this game.
Seventy percent of bettors, to be exact, are taking the points in this game, but sharps aren’t among them. In fact, this line — which opened UCF -8.5 — is now up to -11 thanks to the pro action that’s hit the Knights.
In addition to a slight bet-vs.-money discrepancy (39% of dollars on UCF), seven SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the favorite at lines ranging from -8.5 to -10.5, revealing that sharps are still confident in Central Florida beyond the key number of -10.
Sharp angle: Central Florida (moved from -8.5 to -11) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Arizona State @ UCLA
7:30 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Network
Of all the plays on Saturday’s slate, this looks to be the one drawing the heaviest dose of professional action — at least according to its Bet Signal count.
Comparing opening to current lines, this game wouldn’t be one that catches the eye. Most books opened at Arizona State -3, and that’s right where the consensus sits now. However, the line history once again tells a different story.
Arizona State’s popularity (76% of bets) drove this line past the key number up to -4, and since then it’s been all UCLA in the sharp betting market.
Seventeen Bet Signals have hit the Bruins, 14 of which have come at +3.5 or +4, revealing how much sharps are valuing the importance of beating the field-goal number.
No such line is available now, but should it come back at any point ahead of kickoff, I’d be surprised if wiseguys didn’t pounce once again.
Sharp angle: UCLA (moved from +4 to +3) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]