Saturday College Football Sharp Betting Picks for Week 14: Boston College vs. Virginia, Tulsa vs. Navy & More
Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida State standouts Phil Jurkovec and David Bailey.
- The Boston College spread line moved drastically from +6.5 to +3.5 points due to sharp action on the Eagles line.
- Yet, as Danny Donahue details in our PRO Report, there's still ample value left on the BC side, plus two other college football games with compelling market movement as well.
Despite a handful of cancellations, there’s still plenty of college football action to go around Saturday, which, of course, means plenty to choose from for bettors.
As you’d expect, the numerous betting opportunities mean a greater chance of finding betting value, which sharps have certainly been doing throughout the week. And of the games they’ve been betting, a few have also lit up some value signals highlighted by our PRO Report …
- 12 p.m. ET | Kansas vs. Texas Tech
- 3:30 p.m. ET | Boston College vs. Virginia
- 3:30 p.m. ET | Tulsa vs. Navy
Let’s take a look at the suggested spots.
Note: Data as of 4:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
12 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 2
Sharps and big bettors, who are likely one and the same, are expecting a lower scoring game than what’s been offered this week. And our projections are right in line with them.
As of Friday afternoon, most of the bets landing on this total have come on the under. Yet the number has fallen from 66 to 62.5 throughout the week, which should tell you something about the type of bettors taking the under.
To confirm that indication, Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered five times on the under, revealing five instances of market-wide reactions to sharp action.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Also pointing toward a sharp backing of the under (while giving oddsmakers further reason to move this number), the 46% of bets on it have generated 81% of actual money hitting the total.
That means the under is drawing much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Under
For sharps to be betting this under, they must feel the current number is too high — and our projections agree. Collin Wilson’s college football model pegs the true total at 55.6, providing plenty of under value even after the initial line move.
Model Projections edge: Under
Boston College vs. Virginia
3:30 p.m. ET | RSN
Lighting up almost all of PRO Report indicators, Boston College has been another target for both sharps and our experts, and our projections once again suggest value even at the current line.
In this case, bettors are split 50-50 heading into Saturday, but following a 3-point line move it’s pretty clear which 50% consists of the sharper ones.
Three SI Bet Signals — at lines of +6.5 down to +5 — have landed on BC, explaining in large part why this line has seen such a significant shift.
Sharp Action edge: Boston College
While not as much of a monetary liability, the Eagles are still driving the majority of money in this game, and the 61% of cash they’ve generated once again reveals them to be the pick of bigger, probably sharper, bettors.
Big Money edge: Boston College
Our model projects the Eagles as just 2.3-point dogs, rather than the 3.5 to 4 points they’re currently getting in the market. And while that’s not a huge difference in terms of literal points, it’s a significant one given the frequency of 3-point final score margins in football.
Model Projections edge: Boston College
It’s not just the sharps betting BC, either. As of writing, three of our top college football experts have also taken the Eagles.
You can follow all our experts’ picks — and get notified right when they make them so you don’t miss a line — by downloading the free Action App.
Top Experts edge: Boston College
Tulsa vs. Navy
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Another sharp angle comes via the Tulsa-Navy over/under. And this time it’s history backing the pros’ opinion.
This time, the line move has come in the direction of the popular side, which makes it less obvious that sharps are playing a role. But six SI Bet Signals on the under provide no doubt that the move from 49 to a consensus of 47 has been the result of professional action.
Sharp Action edge: Under
And once again, while this under is attracting a 74% majority backing, that backing has generated almost all of the money landing on this total as of writing.
Big Money edge: Under
As for why the sharps may be on this under, look no further than the weather. With winds of 16 to 18 mph expected in Annapolis, this game fits into our Windy Unders PRO System, which has returned a 57% win rate since 2005 — on a sample of nearly 1,000 games.
PRO Systems edge: Under