College Football Sharp Report: Pros Hitting Kentucky-Louisville, 4 Other Saturday Games

College Football Sharp Report: Pros Hitting Kentucky-Louisville, 4 Other Saturday Games article feature image
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Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jawon Pass

  • Before placing your Week 13 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success, and their favorite plays this week aren't exactly coming from the marquee matchups.

If there ever was a day that confirmed just how little sharps care about whether they're betting on the "big games," tomorrow would be that day.

Being the final regular-season week of college football, Saturday's slate is filled with annually intriguing rivalry games, most notably Michigan-Ohio State and Alabama-Auburn.

But neither of those games, nor the other top matchups like Notre Dame-USC or LSU-Texas A&M, have been the ones garnering the most sharp action this weekend, at least according to the sports betting tools at Sports Insights.

In case you aren't familiar, "sharps" are professional bettors with long track records of success. And when I say long, I'm talking years, decades even. So when a sharp places a bet, books take notice, and often adjust lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at the Saturday games drawing the most action from wiseguys in Week 13.

NC State @ North Carolina

12:20 p.m. ET | ESPN CE

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 65 to 58.5)

It didn't take long for sharps to make a move on this total. Within 24 hours of opening, it had already fallen 4.5 points to 60.5, and sharp action has continued the downward trend since.

You wouldn't necessarily have labeled it a sharp play based on percentages alone, however.

Tickets and dollars are both pretty split on this bet, with the under attracting 52% of bettors and 47% of money.

Generally, a lower money than bet percentage can be an indication of potential sharp action, but in this case, the Sports Insights Bet Signals prove that not to be the case.

The under has drawn four signals — triggered by market-wide line movement as a result of sharp action — indicating that sharps are undoubtedly calling for a lower-than-expected final score.

Old Dominion @ Rice

1 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Sharp angle: Rice (moved from +10 to +7.5)

This game similarly doesn't have a "contrarian" side. At the time of writing, Rice is drawing only a tiny majority of bettors at 51%, but those bets have accounted for 60% of dollars wagered.

And in this case, the percentages line up nicely with the sharp indicators that have been triggered.

Five Bet Signals have come on Rice — the second-highest count among teams on Saturday's slate — and the Owls' line has fallen by almost a field goal as a result, making this game one of the day's biggest movers.

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State

2 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Sharp angle: Georgia State (moved from +11.5 to +10.5)

Getting only 15% of bets so far, Georgia State is among the least popular picks in Week 13. At 2-9 to Georgia Southern's 8-3, it's easy to understand why the public would be all over a line that's barely in the double digits.

Sharps aren't quite on that same page, however.

State's 15% of bets have accounted for half of the money being wagered, meaning bigger — and probably sharper — bettors are among that minority.

The Panthers have also triggered three Bet Signals, helping move the line away from the popular side.

Arkansas State @ Texas State

4 p.m. ET | ESPN3

Sharp angle: Texas State (moved from +13.5 to +11)

I really wasn't kidding about sharps hitting the lesser games on Saturday. In fact, this one and the above matchup of the Georgia schools are the bottom two games on Saturday's slate ranked by total wagers.

Of those wagers, 55% are hitting Texas State, so it isn't exactly a contrarian spot, but this line has moved far more than what would be expected from such a small majority.

The Bobcats have accounted for 71% of money wagered, and have triggered three Bet Signals, all signs the sharps are responsible for another 2.5-point line move.

Kentucky @ Louisville

7 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Sharp angle: Louisville (moved from +17.5 to +17)

The last time Louisville kept a game within 17 points was back in September, so you can understand why bettors would have a hard time backing the Cardinals here.

Only 34% of tickets, in fact, are behind the home team, but with those making up for 50% of dollars, it looks like sharps are among those Louisville backers.

Louisville has also drawn more Sports Insights Bet Signals (seven) than any other team in action tomorrow, and has seen its line fall one-half point from its opening number despite barely eclipsing one-third of bets.



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