College Football Sharp Report: Pros Hitting Kentucky-Louisville, 4 Other Saturday Games

Nov 24, 2018 12:25 AM EST

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jawon Pass

  • Before placing your Week 13 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success, and their favorite plays this week aren't exactly coming from the marquee matchups.

If there ever was a day that confirmed just how little sharps care about whether they’re betting on the “big games,” tomorrow would be that day.

Being the final regular-season week of college football, Saturday’s slate is filled with annually intriguing rivalry games, most notably Michigan-Ohio State and Alabama-Auburn.

But neither of those games, nor the other top matchups like Notre Dame-USC or LSU-Texas A&M, have been the ones garnering the most sharp action this weekend, at least according to the sports betting tools at Sports Insights.

In case you aren’t familiar, “sharps” are professional bettors with long track records of success. And when I say long, I’m talking years, decades even. So when a sharp places a bet, books take notice, and often adjust lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Saturday games drawing the most action from wiseguys in Week 13.

NC State @ North Carolina

12:20 p.m. ET | ESPN CE

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 65 to 58.5)

It didn’t take long for sharps to make a move on this total. Within 24 hours of opening, it had already fallen 4.5 points to 60.5, and sharp action has continued the downward trend since.

You wouldn’t necessarily have labeled it a sharp play based on percentages alone, however.

Tickets and dollars are both pretty split on this bet, with the under attracting 52% of bettors and 47% of money.

Generally, a lower money than bet percentage can be an indication of potential sharp action, but in this case, the Sports Insights Bet Signals prove that not to be the case.

The under has drawn four signals — triggered by market-wide line movement as a result of sharp action — indicating that sharps are undoubtedly calling for a lower-than-expected final score.

Old Dominion @ Rice

1 p.m. ET | ESPN+