Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 14

Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 14 article feature image
Credit:

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cedric Byrd

  • Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 14.
  • Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.

As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.

It’s the last full college football Saturday of the season which brings a tear to my eye, but bowl season is coming. Before we get to any postseason play, we do have one more card to tackle today, including two moneyline underdogs.

For this week, Collin is going with an afternoon home dog while I’m waiting until primetime for a short road dog.  If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays over 4-1.

  • 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
  • 2019: 12-14 +3.65 units

Wilson: Auburn +140

  • Spread: Alabama -3
  • Over/Under: 50
  • Location: Auburn, AL
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

Alabama head coach Nick Saban said this week that “Auburn is the best team we have faced all season”. While that should enrage LSU fans, the Crimson Tide had coach isn’t wrong from a defensive standpoint.

The Auburn defense ranks in the top 10 in both Rush and Passing Success Rates, while LSU sits at only No. 34 against the pass. Auburn may be 71st in defending pass explosiveness, but that’s also a huge upgrade from LSU at 127th.

Finishing Drives captures the points per attempt inside the 40, and Auburn’s rank of 11th is far better than LSU at 35th.

Indeed, this is by far the toughest defense Nick Saban has had to face this year.

Joe Burrow may have set the template for dismantling a young Crimson Tide defense, which is a little soft and undermanned up the middle. Auburn is an efficient rushing team that lacks explosiveness in that department. However, the most  important advanced stat is Auburn’s rank of 10th in offensive stuff rate, which easily trumps Alabama 111th rank in that same metric.

The Tigers should get most short yardage rush attempts and keep the sticks moving.

All the talk in the media is Alabama’s path to make the playoff but I think not enough people are talking about Auburn winning the Iron Bowl.

Mac Jones spent most of the Western Carolina game hitting DeVonta Smith in the flats on quick passes but that won’t work nearly as well against an Auburn secondary that sits in the top 30 in defensive back havoc — led by Roger McCreary, who has 11 passes defended on the season. Their job will be even easier if Henry Ruggs, who is listed as questionable, can’t go.

Speaking of Western Carolina, the Crimson Tide have played the 84th toughest schedule this season, while Auburn has played the  13th. The Tigers are ready.

Auburn holds a clear special teams advantage, will be able to rush for short yardage and has the best defense the Tide have seen. My money is not only on Alabama to not make the playoff, but Auburn to pull off the upset this afternoon.

Pick: Auburn +140 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Stuckey: Army +120

  • Spread: Hawaii -2.5
  • Over/Under: 55
  • Location: Honolulu, HI
  • Time: 12:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: CBSSN

First of all, most of you know by now that I love backing the service academy schools as underdogs. The triple option is the great equalizer. (It’s also the same reason why Army, Navy and Air Force are bad investments as favorites.)

This is also a horrific situational spot for Hawaii, which clinched a spot in the Mountain West title game last week with a win over San Diego State. I know it’s senior night, but I’m not sure how much focus will be there for Hawaii against an Army team coming off of a bye with its sights set on bowl eligibility after a disappointing year. (Army still plays Navy but bowl bids are handed out before that game.)

Plus, you never know if Hawaii may also even decide to sit some guys in advance of that showdown with Boise State next week.

From a matchup perspective, Hawaii is just miserable at defending the run, allowing 5.6 yards per carry (125th nationally). Those struggles showed earlier this year when the Rainbow Warriors were blown out at home by Air Force.

The forecast also calls for heavy winds which won’t bother Army one bit but could limit the Hawaii passing attack.

Army is the last team you want to play when potentially not fully focused. Hawaii can be sloppy with the ball and in the penalty department and I think those two areas will stall enough of its limited number of drives for Army to pull out this win on the island.

Pick: Hawaii +120 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]