College Football Odds & Pick for Hawaii vs. Oregon State: Pac-12 After Dark Betting Preview (September 11)

College Football Odds & Pick for Hawaii vs. Oregon State: Pac-12 After Dark Betting Preview (September 11) article feature image
Credit:

Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chevan Cordeiro.

  • Hawaii and Oregon State close out Saturday's college football slate with some late-night action.
  • The Beavers are favored in this matchup, but Kody Malstrom thinks the betting value lies with the Rainbow Warriors.
  • Check out Malstrom's full betting preview, complete with updated odds, a pick, and a prediction below.

Hawaii vs. Oregon State Odds

Saturday, Sept. 11
11 p.m. ET
FS1

Hawaii Odds

Spread Total Moneyline
+11
65
-110o / -110u
+320

Oregon State Odds

Spread Total Moneyline
-11
65
-110o / -110u
-425
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

With how much it rains in the state of Oregon, you would have to imagine you would see rainbows everywhere — or at least, that’s how I think it works.

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are no stranger to Oregon State, as the Beavers currently lead the series 7-4. The Rainbow Warriors edged the Beavers 31-28 in the last meeting between the two back in 2019, though.

Oregon State comes into this matchup following a disappointing loss against Purdue in Week 1. The Beavers only have two non-conference wins under fourth-year coach Jonathan Smith.

Meanwhile, Hawaii started its season with a loss against UCLA in Week 0 before holding off a Portland State to win 49-35 last week.

Can Hawaii make it two wins in a row against the Beavers? Let’s find out.


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Coming off a closer-than-expected victory over Portland State last week, second-year coach Todd Graham looks to continue his conquest over the state of Oregon.

With eyes now set on Oregon State, the Rainbow Warriors attempt to continue their momentum and pull off the upset away from the island.


Rainbow Warriors Offense

The heart and soul of the Rainbow Warriors’ offense starts with quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The sophomore is coming off a stellar outing, as he passed for 305 yards and three touchdowns.

A trio of receivers split the majority of the yardage on Cordeiro’s passes. Nick Mardner had 97 yards and one touchdown while Jared Smart had 96 yards and a scoring play. Calvin Turner Jr. also contributed with 82 yards.

Hawaii found success on the ground with running back Dae Dae Hunter rushing for 128 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown, and Cordeiro scrambling for 66 yards of his own.

After struggling to find its groove in a Week 0 showdown against UCLA, Hawaii found a lot more success against Portland State. Obviously this was a step down in competition as UCLA looks legit, but it’s an encouraging sign nonetheless.

Ranking 111th in Finishing Drives, the Rainbow Warriors will need to find the end zone — and not settle for field goals — if they want to earn another win.


Rainbow Warriors Defense

Touted as one of the best units in the Mountain West Conference, the Hawaii defense has had its fair share of struggles to start the season. The unit was the team’s best strength last season, but they’ve already given up over 430 total yards in two games this campaign.

In fairness, they did have to go against a very good UCLA offense, and two games is a small sample size. The Bruins did a majority of their damage on the ground, gaining 244 rushing yards to the Rainbow Warriors’ 26.

Portland State attacked Hawaii through the air, throwing for 400 yards and three touchdowns. Portland State had two receivers that notched at least 100 yards, as Hawaii had no answer for the passing game.

If Hawaii is going to pull the upset, it will need to tighten up its defensive effort. Ranking top 25 in Finishing Drives, this will look to be a battle between the 40’s, especially if the Rainbow Warriors’ defense rounds back to form.

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Oregon State Beavers

For years, Oregon State has been the laughing stock of the Pac 12. In a league dominated by in-state rival Oregon, the always pesky Washington Huskies, and the southern California duo of UCLA and USC, Oregon State has spent years getting constantly rolled over.

In Smith’s second season in 2019, the Beavers finished 5-7. They started to show signs of life. Last season, they ended up going 2-5, but secured a win over No. 15 Oregon, which was an eye-popping result.

Dropping this season’s road opener to Purdue, 30-21, Oregon State will look to bounce back after a rough offensive showing.


Beavers Offense

It’s never a good sign when you pull your starting quarterback in the first game of the season. After expecting to lead the Beavers’ offense, quarterback Sam Noyer was yanked in the fourth quarter.

Noyer didn’t have his best game, completing 10-of-21 passes for 94 yards and one interception. Backup Chance Nolan replaced him, completing 10-of-16 passes for 157 yards. Neither signal-callers was capable of finding the end zone.

The Beavers also showed right away that they’ll miss running back Jermar Jefferson, as no rusher topped 30 yards. Trey Lowe led the team with 27 yards while B.J Baylor finished with 24 yards and two touchdowns. After finishing last season ranked on top of the board in rushing success, the Beavers will need to find that magic again if they want to avoid getting rolled over all season.

Senior Trevon Bradford is expected to lead OSU at the receiver position, and he started off on the right note. Bradford finished with five catches for 75 yards, but the rest of the receiving core will have to step up and create separation for Noyer and Nolan.

With Noyer consistently struggling, it may be time to stick with Nolan, or at least get a better look at the sophomore.


Beavers Defense

The Oregon State defense was about as bad as it gets last season, ranking at bottom of the barrel in multiple defensive categories. The Beavers ranked 99th in the FBS in points per game (33.3) and gave up 46 points to Arizona State in the final game of the season.

On the bright side, they can’t do much worse. The Beavers bring back a Def. TARP of 86%, so a lot of familiar and experienced faces are on the roster.

They also have a standout talent on defense. Linebacker Avery Roberts is regarded as one of the best at his position in the Pac 12, finishing last week with nine tackles.

The Beavers come into this season very young at cornerback, a potential recipe for disaster against the Rainbow Warriors’ passing game. They had to replace their top two corners and it already shows, as they conceded over 300 passing yards last week.

If Oregon State wants to get its season back on track, it will have to tighten up the secondary and generate some rush from the front seven. If not, it could be a long day dealing with Cordeiro & Co.


Hawaii vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Oregon State match up statistically:

Hawaii Offense vs. Oregon State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success 77 114
Passing Success 102 113
Havoc 79 93
Line Yards 40 112
Sack Rate 94 117
Finishing Drives 111 83

Oregon State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success 1 81
Passing Success 90 26
Havoc 17 66
Line Yards 7 91
Sack Rate 33 80
Finishing Drives 18 24

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 127 75
Coverage 98 92
Rush Rate 50.6% (94) 52.5% (81)
Seconds per Play 33 26

Data via College Football Data (CFBD) and FootballOutsiders; SP+ projection per ESPN.


Hawaii vs. Oregon State Betting Pick

With question marks at quarterback for the Beavers, this opens up some value on the number for the Rainbow Warriors.

Although Hawaii has been torched both through the air and on the ground in its first two games, this one could serve as a bounce-back opportunity for its defense. Oregon State will need to figure out who to put under center, which is never good for the flow of the offense.

Hawaii — which doesn’t have question marks at the quarterback position — will rely on the arm of Cordeiro, who will look to build on the momentum he gained vs. Portland State. The Beavers have a young secondary, which could be potentially disastrous with Cordeiro slinging it all over the field.

I believe Cordeiro will keep Hawaii within the number, if not potentially lead them to the upset victory.

I also will be looking at the under, as the main focus for both teams will be to shore up their defenses. Hawaii has struggled to finish drives, while Oregon State is trying to figure out what works for them on offense.

Pick: Hawaii +11 | Under 64

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