App State at Marshall Betting Odds & Pick: Season’s First Test for Two of NCAA’s Most Efficient Teams (Saturday, Sept. 19)
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Akeem Davis-Gaither (24) and Appalachian State team mates.
- Marshall and Applachian State each posted phenomenal efficiency metrics in their respective Week 2 matchups and now go head-to-head today at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Collin Wilson breaks down the matchup between the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers, both of whom are earnest in establishing the running game.
- Find his full betting guide below including updated odds plus Collin’s predictions and pick for Saturday’s game.
Appalachian State at Marshall Odds
|Appalachian State Odds||-4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Marshall Odds||+4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||60.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS Sports Network|
This matchup pits two of the nation’s most efficient teams early in the season. The Thundering Herd triumphed 59-0 against Eastern Kentucky in Week 1, posting a 70% success rate and an explosive drive percentage of 36%.
Appalachian State had a bit more competition from Charlotte, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter to win by 15. Still, the Mountaineers had an offensive success rate of 60% with six passes eclipsing 15 yards.
Marshall quarterback Grant Wells excelled throwing out of 11, 12 and even 13 personnel against Eastern Kentucky. Wells also achieved a quarterback rating of 155.2 on his eight pass attempts against the blitz — a better rating than his 15 other passing attempts against a standard pass rush.
Zac Thomas did not perform as well under pressure, but that’s less consequential because the Appalachian State offensive attack is based on pre-snap motion and a heavy dose of rushing.
Doc Holliday mentioned the importance of stopping the run, as the defensive line struggled in spots against rush-dominant teams in 2019. Appalachian State runs their rush-heavy offense in an even split between 11 and 12 personnel. Two other teams that are similar in personnel and rush rate include Central Florida and Charlotte, both of whom beat Marshall late in 2019.
Per the Action Network Power Ratings, the line is projected at Appalachian State -3.5, giving no value to the side. But, there may be value in the total.
Appalachian State allowed zero points on four Charlotte drives that entered Mountaineers territory. The 49ers had an abysmal 2.6 points per trip past the 40-yard line. Eastern Kentucky passed the Marshall 40-yard line three times with no conversions to points in Week 1.
While both defenses have been good at finishing drives against subpar competition, these are two teams that love to run the ball. Based on pace and plays per game with these head coaches in 2019, the total would be around 54.5.
A small play on the under is based on those numbers and the fact both offenses will face tougher competition that their season-openers.
The Bet: Under 59.5