It's time to turn our attention to the Week 8 evening slate, and I have two power-conference picks as part of my NCAAF predictions for your betting card.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 27-22-2 (55.1%)
- Overall: 196-145-3 (57.5%)
2 College Football Evening Picks for Week 8
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4 p.m. | Arizona State +8.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kentucky +13 |
Arizona State +8.5 vs. Texas Tech
4 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
There's some uncertainty here with the status of starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who missed last week's game with an ankle injury.
If he can't go again against the Red Raiders, I wouldn't love this position since there's a monumental drop-off to backup Jeff Sims, who struggled mightily against Utah in Salt Lake City last week.
However, I've heard enough optimistic reports from those close to the program early in the week regarding the mobility of Leavitt (who practiced without a brace on the ankle and moved outside of the pocket during practice on Tuesday) to place a bet on the Sun Devils at anything over a touchdown.
This just sets up as a perfect buy-low spot on Arizona State after it got blown out in Utah with major extenuating circumstances.
Not only did it have to play without its starting quarterback, but the staff didn't even know until the day before the game. As a result, Sims, who's already a major downgrade, didn't even get to work with the first team until Friday.
I'm not only expecting Leavitt back, but also for ASU to come with its best effort with its season on the line under Kenny Dillingham, who I trust as much as any coach in the country to have his team ready for this type of spot.
Additionally, this presents an opportunity to sell high on the Red Raiders, who I believe have peaked in market after running through a very soft schedule with ease.
Through seven weeks, Texas Tech has a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100, while Arizona State's ranks inside the top 25, with both having played at Utah.
While Texas Tech blew out the Utes, they did benefit from an early kickoff and from Utah quarterback Devon Dampier not practicing all week with an injury — essentially the complete opposite scenario that ASU had to deal with.
ASU did lose a key offensive lineman to a season-ending injury and is not fully healthy in the secondary. It also appears that the backup punter will start again for a very poor special teams unit.
However, getting wide receiver Jalen Moss back from injury should help provide a major boost to the offense if Leavitt does suit up.
His presence could really help in the red zone and on third downs, where Arizona State has really struggled with star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson not having any help.
And the cornerback room, which hasn't really been tested yet this season, is one of my biggest questions on this Texas Tech defense that features an absolutely ferocious front seven, but could be a bit shorthanded without Skyler Gill-Howard and potentially Romello Height. It's also worth noting starting quarterback Behren Morton is listed as questionable, although Tech has an outstanding backup situation with Will Hammond.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number with Leavitt looking like a go. And even if Sims has to start again, ASU should be better prepared after last week's late surprise scratch.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Sam Leavitt has gone 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) against FBS teams over the past two seasons with five outright wins in seven games as an underdog, plus a near miss against Texas in the College Football Playoff.
Additionally, Arizona State has gone 51-33-4 ATS (60.4%) in home conference games since 2005, making the Sun Devils the third-most profitable team in that scenario.
Pick: Arizona State +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
Kentucky +13 vs. Texas
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
On the surface, this is a tough spot for the Longhorns, who will travel to Kroger Field following an emotional season-saving victory over Oklahoma.
They will also catch a Kentucky team fresh off a bye, looking for a season-defining win after coming up just short vs. Ole Miss in their most recent home game.
While head coach Mark Stoops has struggled after the bye historically, I do believe this one came at the perfect time, considering the Wildcats made a quarterback change midseason.
The extra time should really help improve the timing and decisiveness that the young Cutter Boley has struggled with in 2025.
He can at least draw on a very productive second-half performance on the road against a much better Texas team last season after he relieved Brock Vandagriff.
Most importantly, I'm still not sold on Texas and certainly have no issues forcing it to win by a significant margin in a tough situational spot.
I do wholeheartedly believe last week's result had more to do with a clearly compromised John Mateer, who threw three interceptions in a 23-6 Texas victory in which the Longhorns also had a 75-yard punt return touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter.
The Texas offense still has major issues with an offensive line that has taken a major step back and a wide receiver room that can't get the same separation as last season, in addition to Arch Manning's struggles with accuracy and consistency.
Among 134 signal-callers with at least 100 dropbacks, Arch ranks 91st in Adjusted Completion Percentage with more Turnover-Worthy Plays (11) than Big-Time Throws (10) despite a 12:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
If you remove the blowout win over Sam Houston — arguably the worst team in the country — Texas has averaged only 21.8 offensive points despite getting plenty of help from its defense with countless short fields.
In those five contests, the Longhorns have only put together four touchdown drives of at least 60 yards in non-garbage time, and that includes home games against lowly UTEP and San Jose State.
Kentucky will play plenty of zone coverage in order to take away the explosive play, forcing Manning (who has struggled to read coverages this season) to work it methodically down the field and actually capitalize with touchdowns in the red zone — an area that has plagued head coach Steve Sarkisian in recent seasons, even with much better offenses.
Ultimately, I just haven't seen enough yet to trust him to do that consistently in order to really put up a big number here.
After all, this is an offense that has converted third downs (a little less than 40%) at an almost identical clip to Kentucky, which has played the tougher overall schedule.
I believe this is a great opportunity to buy low on the Wildcats following back-to-back road losses across one of the nation's five most difficult schedules to this point.
The 'Cats will do everything they can to shorten this game by leaning on their run game, while doing everything they can to take away the explosive play when on defense.
They also do at least feature an elite special teams unit, which certainly doesn't hurt in what will likely be a lower-scoring game where I can't pass up having 13 points in my back pocket.
Notable Nugget
It does concern me a bit that Mark Stoops' teams have not excelled following the bye week in league play.
Against SEC foes, Stoops has gone 3-12 ATS (20%) with extra preparation, failing to cover by over eight points per game on average. Hopefully, he's due.
Pick: Kentucky +13 (Play to +12.5)
