Welcome to Championship Week.
Nine college football conferences will crown a champion this weekend, earning some hardware while some simultaneously punch their tickets to the College Football Playoff.
I broke down all 4 power conference title games and dished out a pick (or 2 or 3) for each.
We'll start in Jerry World, where the BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders will meet in a regular-season rematch with a Big 12 Championship on the line.
Then, we'll head to Atlanta, where the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide add another chapter to their storied rivalry in the SEC Championship.
We'll then turn our attention to the Big Ten Championship, where the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers clash in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown.
To close it all out, the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers will go at it for the ACC Championship.
With so much to get to, let's take a look at my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the conference championship games on Saturday, Dec. 6.
College Football Picks, Predictions for Conference Championships
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's conference title games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BYU vs Texas Tech Pick
The BYU Cougars take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Arlington, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas Tech is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. BYU, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +410 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
BYU Cougars
With the noise swirling around about millionaire donors looking to keep Kalani Sitake in Provo, BYU must win a rematch with Texas Tech to become Big 12 champions.
The Cougars struggled after an early November bye week, losing 29-7 to Texas Tech in Lubbock.
The potent combination of running back LJ Martin and quarterback Bear Bachmeier was limited to just 47 rushing yards combined.
There's good news on the health front, though, as wide receiver Chase Roberts will be available for the championship after sitting out a Week 14 victory over UCF.
BYU's zone read concepts were fruitless against the Texas Tech defense, averaging just 2.8 yards per play on 26 carries. The Cougars converted just 3-of-14 third-down attempts, also handing over a massive field-position edge with Texas Tech securing 254 hidden yards.
Roberts scored the sole touchdown in the Week 11 game and is a crucial returning piece to the offense.
The Cougars' nickel defense stuffed 39% of rushing attempts from the Red Raiders, but a couple of explosive runs put Texas Tech in constant scoring position.
The Red Raiders reached the red zone seven times against BYU, converting two touchdowns and four field goals.
BYU has struggled to produce Havoc and a pass rush this season, but the Cougars did sack the Red Raiders five times with eight pressures.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill's 2-4-5 defense has been successful with the blitz this season, as 33% of BYU's defensive snaps have utilized blitz with a 61% Success Rate.
Linebacker Jack Kelly leads the team in pressures and will be needed once again in the Big 12 Championship.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech has given up a grand total of 36 points over the past five games. One team on the schedule played within 22 points of the Red Raiders, a road loss at Arizona State in Week 8.
The box score may provide the template for shutting down the high-powered offense, as the Sun Devils won the turnover battle while keeping Tech's Success Rate in passing downs minimal.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State connected on six different explosive passes to generate five trips to the red zone.
The game was an outlier to the Red Raiders' season. Texas Tech ranks top-25 defensively in creating a contested catch and owns the top overall coverage grade, per PFF.
The 2-4-5 defense flips between quarters and Cover 3, utilizing blitz on just 21% of snaps. There aren't many categories where Texas Tech isn't in the top five defensively, other than a rank of 90th in penalties.
Defensive interior A.J. Holmes Jr. will be paramount in the Big 12 Championship, producing a season-high three tackles against BYU's inside zone read concepts.
The Texas Tech running back combination of Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams dominated the BYU from an EPA perspective.
The Cougars stuffed a Texas Tech offense that's 96th in Line Yards, but a top-50 rank in explosives allowed Dickey and Williams to run for nearly 200 yards combined.
The Red Raiders use inside zone read with a 56% Success Rate out of 11 personnel. The usage of two tight ends and counter consumes the running game, but neither can generate methodical drives like the inside zone with one tight end.
BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction
Will Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire see red-zone struggles against the Cougars for a second consecutive game?
With seven red-zone trips and four field goals in the Week 11 matchup, things didn't go well for a Texas Tech team that ranks 31st in Offensive Finishing Drives.
The BYU defense can be credited in this instance, ranking top-10 in both opponent red-zone scoring and red-zone touchdown rate.
Conversely, Texas Tech has boosted its red-zone touchdown rate to 89th nationally after turning 14 attempts into 12 touchdowns against UCF and West Virginia.
The defenses should take explosives away from each offense, leaving BYU with a small path to creating methodical drives.
Texas Tech's defensive line has dominated all forms of zone read run concepts, limiting nearly every quarterback on designed runs.
The Cougars' best chance may come through the arm of Bachmeier to Roberts, as the freshman quarterback owns a high 56% Success Rate with positive EPA against Cover 3.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Texas Tech by a touchdown, giving value to BYU and the points.
If the Cougars can flex in the red zone, explosives may be the avenue for the Red Raiders to score touchdowns instead of field goals.
Scoring should start at a slower rate, with Texas Tech ranking second in first-half scoring defense and BYU sitting 26th.
Pick: BYU +13 or Better · 1H Under 24.5
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Georgia vs Alabama Pick
The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Atlanta on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +115 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has had little success against Alabama, and never at the expense of Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer.
Georgia is 1-10 over its past 11 games against Alabama dating back to 2008.
This will be the third time the teams have met in the SEC Championship game since 2021, with both contests previously going to Alabama.
Of the past two head-to-heads between DeBoer and Smart, Alabama has scored 28 points in the first quarter while limiting Georgia to zero.
Those numbers have long been the script for both teams this season, as Georgia ranks 66th nationally in first-quarter scoring differential.
The second quarter is where Georgia and Alabama have lit up the scoreboard like a Christmas tree. When these two teams met in Week 5, the second quarter saw five possessions end in a score.
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton found wide receiver Colbie Young for an explosive touchdown. Later in the quarter, the Bulldogs executed a methodical 11-play drive that included short routes to wide receiver Zachariah Branch.
Young will be out with an ankle injury for this game, potentially asking Georgia to lean more on the running game.
Workhorse running back Chauncey Bowens gained 119 yards on just 12 carries in the first matchup between these sides, and the sophomore is expected to play against Alabama.
Georgia uses a heavy amount of inside zone pivoting between 11 and 12 personnel. Alabama has a severe weakness against inside zone when opponents use two-tight end sets, producing a low 38% Success Rate against the concept.
The Bulldogs defense produced over the final three games against Georgia Tech, Charlotte and Texas. After allowing three red-zone touchdowns to Mississippi State in Week 11, Georgia has allowed just one red-zone touchdown over the final three weeks.
The Dawgs continue to have one of the worst pass rush numbers nationally, but the second-level tackling has been the best in FBS. Georgia comes in as the top overall team in tackling, per PFF, also boasting a top-20 rank in broken tackles allowed per Sports Info Solutions.
Alabama Crimson Tide
No team may need a victory more in Championship Week than Alabama, as the College Football Playoff committee bumped the Tide to ninth in the most recent rankings.
The Crimson Tide are in jeopardy of not only losing the SEC Championship, but also being knocked out of the playoff with a third loss.
There have been close calls, as Auburn dominated Alabama in the Iron Bowl box score. South Carolina also carried a lead into the fourth quarter in Week 9.
Both teams have the same features in the box score, as mobile quarterbacks Ashton Daniels and LaNorris Sellers each led their respective team in rushing yards.
Meanwhile, Stockton had his number called on only three designed carries against the Tide earlier this season.
Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack's bunch has also had issues in creating a pass rush.
The Crimson Tide boast one of the best pass defenses in the nation, ranking top-10 in both opponent pass efficiency and explosives.
The SEC Championship should see more of the same from Week 5, as the Tide produced no quarterback hurries and just two sacks against the Bulldogs.
Quarterback Ty Simpson continues to be the most valuable player on offense, thanks to the lack of a running game.
Running back Jam Miller suffered an injury in the Iron Bowl and will be questionable for the SEC Championship. Backup Daniel Hill has just 57 carries this season and averages less than three yards after first contact.
With no elusiveness or highlight yards expected from the running game, Simpson will be asked to use Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Iron Bowl hero Isaiah Horton heavily in the passing game.
These three weapons were targeted a combined 26 times against Georgia in Week 5, with a large portion coming out of the slot.
Bernard was used in short throws with an average depth of target of 4.4 yards, while Horton and Williams acted as home-run hitters at over 12 yards in average depth of target.
Georgia vs Alabama Prediction
The game script for Alabama and Georgia remains unchanged since their last meeting. The Bulldogs are neutral in scoring differential in the first quarter, while Alabama has only lost the first 15 minutes to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt this season.
There's reason to think the fireworks will go off in the second quarter for both offenses again in this series.
Stockton is expected to run more against an Alabama defense that struggles with mobile quarterbacks. Stockton's fewest number of designed rushing attempts (three) came against Alabama earlier this season.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is sure to get his quarterback's legs in the mix with high stakes, as Stockton ran eight times against Texas in the SEC Championship game a season ago.
Alabama, meanwhile, will look to take advantage of matchups in the passing game. With little rushing success and Miller questionable, Simpson should take to the air quicker than usual.
The advantageous Alabama matchup that stunted the Bulldogs in Week 5 came against UGA cornerback Daylen Everette. The senior was targeted four times and allowed four catches to Williams and Horton.
The price for Horton's props will be higher than usual after the Iron Bowl, but there's reason to think Simpson will utilize his trusted target with the status of tight end Josh Cuevas unknown.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for this game to be a pick'em. Points for either team have value, but game script has been the dominating factor in this series since before the DeBoer hire at Alabama.
The Crimson Tide are predicted to take the opening lead after the first quarter before a swarm of adjustments puts points on the board.
Expect Bowens and Stockton to go ground-and-pound on an Alabama defense that's better against the pass. Conversely, expect Simpson to find Horton in matchups against Everette.
Pick: 1H Over 23.5 · Bowens Over 31.5 Rushing Yards · Horton Anytime TD (+200)
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Indiana vs Ohio State Pick
The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Indiana, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +164 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Indiana Hoosiers
A run of 50-burgers against Maryland and UCLA came with a cost as Indiana completed its undefeated season.
Injuries mounted, and a close field-goal victory over Penn State forced head coach Curt Cignetti to dial it back in order to get ready for the Big Ten Championship.
As of writing, the left guard Drew Evans and wideout E.J. Williams Jr. remain questionable.
Indiana is a run-first offense, utilizing the ground game with a heavy amount of inside zone with running back Roman Hemby. The Hoosiers have lined up for gap blocking assignments with Kaelon Black as the primary runner in the concept.
Both Hemby and Black average more than 3.6 yards after first contact, combining for 38 runs over 10 yards.
No offense in college football has spent more time in standard downs than Indiana, evidenced by the shortest third-down distance with an average of 5.3 yards to go.
The Big Ten Championship will have a major impact on the Heisman Trophy race, as Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza leads all contenders.
The Cal transfer has been the best in the country, doubling his touchdown total from 2024 while lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to a snug 2.5%.
Mendoza has struggled down the stretch despite throwing five interceptions on the season, as six of his nine turnover-worthy plays have come in the past four games.
On the other side, Indiana's 4-2-5 defense has put up elite numbers this season, coming in as the best unit nationally in Havoc and Finishing Drives allowed.
Indiana crushes opponents using the rush, particularly on zone-read attempts. The Hoosiers create a negative EPA against all run concepts, averaging a 59% Success Rate against outside and inside zone.
No defense may play as much zone coverage as Indiana, which pivots to man on just 8% of defensive snaps.
The Hoosiers have been fantastic in limiting explosives as a top-25 defensive pass EPA unit, but the defense has allowed big runs on the ground.
Indiana ranks 122nd against rush explosives and 71st in opponent standard downs explosives. One of the biggest indicators of success against Indiana is the ability to push the defense with a strong ground game.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State left no doubt in its undefeated season as it beat Michigan for the first time since 2019. The Wolverines were stuffed on nearly half of their rushing attempts and produced zero explosives with just one methodical drive in nine possessions.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's 4-2-5 defense has dominated inside zone with one of the best numbers nationally in limiting explosive plays.
Although safety Caleb Downs' total tackles have been nearly cut in half from 2024, the junior has produced as many "stops," which are defined as a complete failure by the offense, per PFF.
There is an outside chance for quarterback Julian Sayin to win the Heisman Trophy with a solid box score. The sophomore comes in as the most accurate passer in the nation in regard to On-Target Rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
In 348 dropbacks, Sayin has produced a minuscule 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate with a small bump to 2.2% with a pressured pocket.
Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both returned to the starting lineup against Michigan, each notching a touchdown in 11 combined targets.
Running back Bo Jackson has come on down the stretch, leading an offense that ranks 12th nationally in Rushing Success Rate. The freshman has just 13 attempts that went over 15 yards, with six of them coming in the last three games.
The Ohio State offensive line ranks 36th in Line Yards, so Jackson has provided the highlight yards with a season average of 4.3 yards after first contact.
Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction
There aren't many discrepancies between Indiana and Ohio State, ranking 45th and 46th, respectively, in strength of schedule.
Both squads boast top-10 ranks in nearly every offensive and defensive category, including Success Rate and in the red zone. They're also the top two programs nationally in third-down conversions.
The easiest way to handicap this game is to look at blemishes in the advanced numbers to see if the opposing team can expose any weaknesses in the Big Ten Championship.
Ohio State has a mid-FBS rank of 68th in Offensive Stuff Rate, a signal that its zone read concepts may be fruitless against an Indiana defense that sits top-four in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Hoosiers dominate zone read and rarely allow explosives, but there's one concept that could generate yardage. Indiana has a mid-FBS rank against inside zone when used with a two-tight end set.
Ohio State has run inside zone with 12 personnel on 58 attempts this season, generating a high 62% Success Rate.
The biggest question is whether offensive coordinator Brian Hartline goes ground-and-pound with a two-tight end set or takes to the skies with a healthy Tate and Smith.
Indiana owns a top-10 coverage grade and ranks 26th in pass breakups plus interceptions. The nickel defense flips between Cover 3 and Cover 2 depending on down and distance.
Sayin is one of the few quarterbacks in college football to have success against Cover 2, posting a 66% Success Rate and one of the highest EPA numbers of any quarterback.
On the other side, Patricia will use a combination of man, Cover 3 and Cover 1 to combat Indiana's passing offense. Mendoza has produced a minimum 56% Success Rate against those specific concepts, and it goes up to 70% against Ohio State's preferred base of Cover 3.
While Sayin is the top quarterback in On-Target Rate, Mendoza comes in as the third-most accurate passer in the nation.
The bread and butter of the Indiana offense is the usage of inside zone in 11 personnel with a 67% Success Rate. There's reason to think the Hoosiers can stay in standard downs, as Ohio State produces just a 52% Success Rate against inside zone with a single tight end.
As Hemby owns the lion's share of zone read, Black will line up in gap or man blocking attempts. Ohio State has also been mid-FBS in defending man-blocking run concepts with a 52% Success Rate.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings have the number spot on the current market, with Ohio State listed as a four-point favorite.
However, there's a signal that Indiana will win the battle on the ground through its run concepts, while Sayin should produce against the Hoosiers' Cover 2.
With ball control expected to be on Indiana's side — plus a much higher Special Teams SP+ rank — the Hoosiers are a live underdog that could shake up the College Football Playoff rankings.
Pick: Indiana +4.5 or Better
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Duke vs Virginia Pick
The Duke Blue Devils take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlotte for the ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Virginia is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. Duke, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Virginia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Duke Blue Devils
Despite a 7-5 record, Duke will look to become an improbable ACC champion and make the College Football Playoff.
The Blue Devils suffered three ranked losses and another pair against UConn and Tulane. Head coach Manny Diaz overachieved this season with a second-order win total of 5.8 despite the seven-win outcome.
The primary reason for the volatility came with the defense, finishing near dead last in giving up explosives and Points Per Opportunity allowed.
The final five teams on Duke's schedule averaged 34.6 points per game, including a Week 12 loss to this same Virginia team.
Quarterback Darian Mensah had similar numbers compared to last season at Tulane. The sophomore lowered his turnover-worthy play rate to 3%, throwing an interception in just one of the past nine Duke games.
However, the Blue Devils have struggled to establish the run, ranking outside the top 90 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Slot Que'Sean Brown and wideout Cooper Barkate each average two yards per route run and have racked up nine combined touchdowns.
The biggest offensive piece over the last month of play has been tight end Jeremiah Hasley. After seeing minimal targets without a score through Week 10, Hasley has generated 22 targets and three touchdowns over the past four games.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia finished the season with a second-order win total of 8, indicating there were some fraudulent box scores along the way. However, the final two games of the season against Virginia Tech and Duke generated a 100% post-game win expectancy.
The Cavaliers have been excellent in creating Havoc on the defensive side of the ball, entering the ACC Championship ranked 11th nationally in that area.
Virginia sits top-five in pass breakups, the primary source for a PFF coverage grade of 18th.
The interior of the defensive line has also been a key, with defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter providing one of the highest rush grades on the roster.
The primary source of success on the offensive side of the ball comes from rush explosives. Virginia ranks 18th in Rush EPA thanks to J'Mari Taylor providing 20 rushing attempts that went over 10 yards.
Head coach Tony Elliott calls pure zone read on the ground, with 203 attempts going inside compared to 178 attempts going outside.
Duke vs Virginia Prediction
Duke ranks outside the top 100 in rush explosives allowed, so Taylor will have the opportunity to rack up plenty of big plays for the Virginia offense.
The Blue Devils have been horrific in keeping teams off the scoreboard once a drive extends past the 40-yard line. Opponents are averaging 4.5 points on possessions that get into scoring position.
Virginia should score often with advantages in scoring position and a positive rush EPA indicator.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for the game to be closer than the market, giving value to Duke. However, both teams have had improbable outcomes the entire season, so live betting may be the better option when looking for a side.
When it comes to props, Mensah has looked for Hasley on all touchdown drives over the past month of play. Along with a Virginia team total over, look for Mensah to hit his tight end in the end zone.
Pick: Virginia Team Total Over 30.5 · Jeremiah Hasley Anytime TD (+250)
