Nebraska vs. Northwestern Odds & Pick: A Betting Trend Drawing Sharp Action? (Saturday, Nov. 7)
G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins/Getty Images. Pictured: Dedrick Mills
College Football Odds: Nebraska vs. Northwestern
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
Much to the displeasure of college football bettors, today’s Air Force vs. Army game was canceled earlier in the week due to COVID-19.
Of course, any game being canceled is an unwelcome sight, but there was particular reason for bettors to have been excited for this service academy matchup. You see, such games have led to one of the most profitable trends in sports betting over the past 15 or so years.
Since 2005 (the start of our college football database), college football games between service academies (Army, Navy and Air Force) have gone 36-9-1 to the under — a ridiculous 80% win rate.
Why? Because these teams make up most — correction: almost all — of their offensive output on the ground, which limits big plays, and more importantly, keeps the clock moving throughout the whole game, meaning fewer drives, and therefore, fewer scores.
But while the service academies certainly take this style of play to the extreme, we figured there still might be something to be said for matchups between any two rush-heavy teams, like Nebraska and Northwestern.
College Football Pick: Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Over the same span, games between teams that average at least 215 yards on the ground per game have gone 196-166-7 to the under (a 54.1% win rate). But when limited only to expectedly lower-scoring games — totals less than 57 — that clip climbs to 58.3% on a 102-73-3 record.
At noon ET, Nebraska (217 rush yards per game) will take on Northwestern (234) in a game with the total set at 52. 5. And if history is any indication, that total is a bit too high.
What’s more? According to our PRO Report, sharps are betting this game too:
You can track all the sharp action on Saturday’s slate, and check out the PRO Report for this spread, with a free trial of PRO.