Ohio vs. Nevada Odds, Betting Pick, Prediction: Pack Due for Regression Against the Spread in Potato Bowl

Ohio vs. Nevada Odds for Potato Bowl

• Spread: Ohio -9.5
• Over/Under: 62
• Date: Friday, Jan. 3
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: Boise, Idaho

Ohio entered the year as MAC favorites, but didn't live up to the hype with a 6-6 finish.

Nevada seemed to play with fire all season, but emerged with four narrow wins and a 7-5 record.

Who has the edge in Friday's Potato Bowl? Let's break it down.

Odds as of Thursday night and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Potato Bowl Line Movement

The Potato Bowl odds have moved only in Ohio's favor over the last few weeks.

Ohio opened -6 and are now -8 with more than 75% of bets and 80% of money coming on the Bobcats.

The total is also up from 56.5 to 59 with almost all the money and bets hitting the over. — Steve Petrella

Nevada Due For Some Poor Luck

The University of Nevada is not in Las Vegas, but the Pack had lady luck on their side this season.

Nevada finished with 3.0 second order wins, meaning it played more like a 4-8 team than a 7-5 team based on its true box score performances.

After all, the Pack rank outside the top 100 in net scoring margin, yards per play and success rate. That's almost impossible for a team that went 7-5.

Basically, it won all its close games and got blown out in all its losses. That's not the sign of a great team.

Nevada was very luck to get bowl eligible at all, though I do think the point spread reflects that. — Steve Petrella

Wilson: Ohio Should Dominate on the Ground

Backing the combination of Ohio quarterback Nathan Rourke and coach Frank Solich has been profitable in MAC play for a number of years. But the Potato Bowl is the last game for the senior quarterback.

Ohio was in jeopardy of not making a bowl game with just six wins after entering the season as the MAC favorite. The Bobcats needed two wins in the final two weeks to set up this date with Nevada on the blue turf in Boise.

Nevada will be without starters on the defensive side of the ball after a season-ending skirmish with UNLV. A member from every unit on the defense is suspended for this game, including two of their top six tacklers in safety Austin Arnold and corner Daniel Brown.

Nevada struggles against the ground attack, ranking 116th in defensive rushing success rate and 115th in line yards. Those numbers will be troublesome against Ohio's RPO attack, led by the dynamic Rourke.

In addition to the Ohio advantages in the numbers, Nevada fired its defensive coordinator, as an interim staff will call the defense for the Potato Bowl.

Nevada may have success running on the offensive side of the ball, but a poor passing success rank of 92nd will make it tough for the Wolfpack to recover from a deficit.

Both teams run a slow-paced offense with a rush first mentality. Back the MAC in the Potato Bowl in Rourke and Solich's last game together. — Collin Wilson

Pick: Ohio -8