Oklahoma State at Kansas State Betting Odds & Pick: Value For Cowboys on Spread

Oklahoma State at Kansas State Odds

Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State suffered their first conference loss of the season last week. However, if you watched those two games, you saw very clear proof that not all defeats are created equally.

Kansas State was blown out at West Virginia, 37-10, and had a post-game win expectancy of 0%. Kansas State was outgained 485-225, a common theme in almost all of its games this season.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, had a post-game win expectancy of 100%, despite falling, 41-34, in overtime to Texas. The Cowboys outgained the Longhorns 530-287 and posted a Success Rate of 49% compared to just 29% for Texas.

Both of these teams are still firmly in the Big 12 Championship picture, but this game could serve as an elimination match for whichever team drops its second straight game.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

In my Oklahoma State vs. Texas game guide last week, I wrote that Spencer Sanders, Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace were finally all healthy and could have a coming out party against the Longhorns defense. Well, they did, as Sanders threw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, both career highs.

Wallace posted his best game of the season, totaling 11 catches on 11 targets for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Of his 11 receptions against Texas, two of them were touchdowns and the other nine were for first downs. Wallace leads the Big 12 with 117.6 receiving yards per game, more than 45 yards per game than the next closest receiver.

Oklahoma State outgained Texas by 243 yards and largely outplayed the Longhorns for the entire game. The only reason Texas was able to escape with the win was turnovers, which has been the Achilles' heel for Spencer Sanders in his whole career.

The Pokes turned the ball over four times last week, three of them by Sanders (one interception, two fumbles). In 14 career games, Sanders has 24 turnovers, throwing 14 interceptions and losing 10 fumbles. If Oklahoma State has any chance at a Big 12 title, Sanders needs to protect the football better.

The Oklahoma State miscues allowed Texas to have an average starting field position of just 58.7 yards away from the end zone, and the Longhorns converted 20 points off the four turnovers.

The Oklahoma State defense proved it was legit last week, holding a really good Texas offense to just a 29% Offensive Success Rate and 3.8 yards per play. The Pokes defense held Longhorn quarterback Sam Ehlinger to just 169 yards passing, his lowest mark since he faced Georgia in 2018.

The Cowboys defense does everything well. It ranks eighth in Success Rate against rushing plays and third in Success Rate against passing plays. The Pokes have the seventh-best defense in the nation, according to SP+. This defense flies all over the field, creating Havoc on more than 20% of its plays, the 11th-highest clip in the country.

Kansas State Wildcats

This Kansas State season has been a bit of a Cinderella story, as the Wildcats greatly overachieved their actual play to start 4-0 in conference play, including a big upset against Oklahoma. Well, Halloween hit last Saturday, and the Wildcats turned back into a pumpkin as West Virginia blew out the Cats.

The Wildcats have only outgained one team — Kansas — through their first six games. K-State was outgained 489-374 against Arkansas State, 517-390 against Oklahoma, 471-404 against Texas Tech, 342-289 against TCU, and 485-225 against West Virginia.

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The saving grace for Kansas State has been winning the turnover margin in order to provide its struggling offense with a short field. Prior to the West Virginia game, the Wildcats had generated 10 turnovers while only giving the ball away twice. Kansas State has benefited from the fourth-best average starting field position among all Power Five teams.

With three interceptions against the Mountaineers, Kansas State lost the turnover battle for the first time all season, and in conjunction, produced its lowest offensive output of the year, totaling just 225 yards.

The loss of quarterback Skylar Thompson has really hurt the Wildcats, as true freshman Will Howard is completing just 55.9% of his passes (worst in the Big 12) and throwing for 148.2 yards per game. He has just as many touchdowns as interceptions with four each.

Since I feel like I need to say something positive about Kansas State… Deuce Vaughn is awesome. This Oklahoma State defense could be a tall task for the dynamic running back, but he is one of the most electric players to watch in the country.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Kansas State was able to build four-straight wins on what was essentially a house of cards made up of turnover luck and timely big plays. That was clearly not going to be sustainable, and the oddsmakers sniffed that out, making it 4.5-point underdogs against an unranked West Virginia team.

The Wildcats rank 84th in total offense and 71st in total defense. This struggling offense and Howard are now tasked with trying to move the ball against the best defense in the conference and one of the best in the entire country.

Oklahoma State has two of the best players in the Big 12 in Hubbard and Wallace, and this Kansas State defense will have no answer for them. The Pokes should be extra motivated after dropping a game they had no business losing last week.

I am obviously nervous about Sanders' ability to hold onto the football, but with 20 mph winds expected in Manhattan on Saturday, they should rely more on Hubbard and the running game.

Against the Wildcats last season, Hubbard was unstoppable, running wild for a career-best 296 yards and 11.8 yards per carry. Hubbard and the defense should get the Pokes back on track, and I would back them at anything under two touchdowns.

Pick: Oklahoma State -11.5 (up to -13.5)