Oklahoma-Texas Betting Guide: Count on Sooners’ Explosive Offense
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Herman, Sam Ehlinger, Kyler Murray
Texas-Oklahoma Betting Odds, Pick
- Line: Oklahoma -7
- Over/Under: 60
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Oklahoma has been the class of the Big 12 for the last decade, while Texas has been…not that.
Still, it’s the Longhorns who have gotten the best of this rivalry from a betting perspective even as the gap between the two programs widened. You hate to use the “throw out your numbers in this rivalry” cliché, but it’s been the case. Even last year, Texas held Oklahoma to just 29 points, its lowest total of the season.
This season, the Sooners offense is as strong as ever (albeit against lackluster competition), while Texas has picked up good wins against TCU and USC.
Market Moves for Oklahoma-Texas
If oddsmakers were looking to split bets in half on this game, they’ve come pretty darn close to picking the right number. A slight majority of bettors (53%) is behind the Longhorns, and this line has found its way back to the same spot where it opened.
The over/under has drawn much more lopsided betting percentages. Seventy-two percent of bets and 87% of dollars are on the over, which has inched up the total by a half-point.
Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams
Everyone loves to use the famous stat on Tom Herman as an underdog (11-1 ATS).
But this might be more impressive: when Herman is an underdog or favored by a TD or less, he is 15-3 ATS. As a favorite of more than a TD, he is just 10-16 ATS.
Herman is a notorious giant slayer, and he’s done it with defense. The under is 3-9 in Herman’s games in which he is an underdog, going under by an average of almost 12 points per game.
By John Ewing
Texas is 9-3-1 ATS vs. Oklahoma in this rivalry since 2005.
The last five years, the Sooners have been favored in each game by an average of 13.2 points. In those matchups, Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover on average by 14.8 points per game.
Key Metrics for Oklahoma-Texas
Oklahoma is averaging 8.9 yards per play this season. Through five games in 2017 with Baker Mayfield, the Sooners were averaging 8.7.
Oklahoma Has the Big Play Advantage
Texas’ defense is efficient, but susceptible to big plays. The Longhorns rank 15th in success rate but 83rd in defending explosiveness. The same holds true against the pass — sixth in passing success rate on defense, 108th in passing explosiveness.
We don’t even have to lay out the metrics for you to know Oklahoma’s offense is explosive. The Sooners rank first in that measure and fifth in efficiency. There’s not a great way to slow down this offense, and the Horns might give up a few big plays trying to take away the shorter stuff.
Bet to Watch for Texas-Oklahoma
By Ken Barkley
I’ll just start by saying I made this Oklahoma -9.2 so now that the spread is 8, that’s the end of the value for me. Maybe the magic of Herman as an underdog makes Texas valuable somehow, but that certainly isn’t quantifiable. Also I don’t trust Oklahoma’s numbers as much because it’s played such lackluster competition.
As for the total, though, all kinds of interesting things are going on. I give Texas DC Todd Orlando a ton of credit for his halftime adjustments last year. Baker Mayfield and company came in, got up 20-0, and it looked like a really long day was ahead for the Texas defense.
In the second half, the most efficient, productive offense in college football last year had just nine points and punted four times (including three 3-and-outs).
I think the key differences between last year and this year are the losses for Texas in defensive personnel, and the steady improvement of the Texas offense. Texas lost multiple starters to the NFL, and although its young players are extremely talented, they haven’t seen anything like what Lincoln Riley is cooking up.
I trust Riley to game plan about as much as I trust anyone to do anything. And while Texas has played in big games so far, the Longhorns were woeful against the speed of Maryland at times, while games against USC and Kansas State will help their metrics look much better than they probably should because those teams have struggled so mightily to find an offensive identity this season.
Corner Kris Boyd lined up all over the field against TCU’s and USC’s best receivers, but is notorious for getting burned on double-moves and giving up huge penalties on third down. To call this a plus matchup for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown would be an understatement.
Texas also has a cluster of injuries at defensive back entering the game anyway — never a good sign when you’re about to face the No. 1 offense in every category known to man.
On offense, though, Texas has shown steady improvement, and what USC and TCU were throwing at the Longhorns is much more challenging than what the Sooners will present in this game. In Oklahoma’s only real test against a Top 40-50 team, Iowa State completed a ton of long passes, and receivers were breaking tackles with reckless abandon.
Those teams combined for 64 points, and that was at Iowa State’s generally slow pace, and with a grind-to-a-halt, six-point fourth quarter. I think Texas can score in this game, with regularity.
We don’t really know just how bad Oklahoma’s defense is yet because it has yet to be challenged. That may be holding this total down just a little bit, but the secret will be out soon enough.
The Pick: Give me the over at 60.5