Oregon State at Oregon Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Beavers Struggle vs. Elite Defenses
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. PIctured: Justin Herbert
Oregon vs. Oregon State Betting Odds
- Spread: Oregon -19.5
- Over/Under: 65.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
- Location: Eugene, Ore.
Both Oregon State and Oregon are coming off heartbreaks of their own last week.
The Ducks lost as a 14-point favorite to Arizona State, ending their College Football Playoff hopes. They had already clinched the Pac-12 and still have a Rose Bowl bid to play for against (most likely) Utah, but the CFP is out of reach with two losses.
Oregon State was two minutes from clinching a bowl bid for the first time since 2013 last week against Washington State, but blew a two-touchdown lead, including a touchdown as time expired. Now OSU must shock Oregon in Eugene to reach the postseason.
Still, it’s been a great season for second-year coach Jonathan Smith. The Beavers had won just three games in the previous two years combined.
Model Prediction for Oregon State-Oregon
- Spread: Oregon -21.2
- Total: 56.9
Oregon State Struggles vs. Good Defenses
The handicap on Oregon State scoring points has come down to the opposing defense’s prowess in the trenches. In games against Washington State, Arizona and Arizona State, the Beavers scored at least 35 points. In games against Utah, Cal and Washington, the Beavers scored 31 total points. Against Oregon, the Beavers may once again have issues scoring points.
Oregon has a clear advantage in success rate when it has the ball. The Ducks offensive line should have no issues clearing a path with a Stuff Rate of No. 5 against a defensive unit for the Beavers that ranks 69th in the same category. Finishing drives is one of the biggest gaps between this unit, with Oregon ranking top 20 in point per trip past the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Oregon State has been one of the best red zone teams in the a nation. In 37 trips to the red zone, the Beavers have scored 32 touchdowns and just two field goals. The key question is if the Ducks defense will allow Oregon State to reach the red zone. Oregon ranks No. 7 in finishing drives and No. 2 in opponent red zone scoring per attempt.
Our Action Network total projects 57 points, well below the current number. The Oregon defense will look to rebound at home against its rival, while Oregon State’s offense will continue to struggle in games that it’s outmatched in the trenches.
Pick: Under 65.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Steve Petrella: Why I Like the First Half Moneyline
Have I lost my mind? Certainly. Have the Beavers done enough for me to go back to the well one last time, albeit a far-too-deep well? You bet.
I’ve been opining on the reasons for taking underdogs with good offenses in games with high totals on the first-half moneyline all season. More scoring leads to more variance, and that usually favors the underdog.
Several times I’ve gone back to Oregon State, which has a strong passing attack and dynamite offense in the red zone — the Beavers rank No. 1 nationally in touchdown percentage in the red zone (32 scores on 37 chances). That’s a good recipe to steal a halftime lead against a better team.
The Beavers have been a dog 10 times this season and held the halftime lead in six of those games.
OSU has really struggled against elite defenses this year, but Oregon’s defense has taken a step back in the second half of the season. The Ducks have allowed at least 6.4 yards per play in three of their last five games, and an average of 25.4 points per game in that span.
Pick: Oregon State 1H Moneyline (+500) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]