Wilson: My Projected Odds & Over/Unders for Week 14 College Football Games

Wilson: My Projected Odds & Over/Unders for Week 14 College Football Games article feature image
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Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lincoln Riley

Betting over/unders can break your heart. Just look at Week 13, which was filled with plenty of obscene backdoor covers for over bettors. Arkansas managed to recover an onside kick at the LSU 11-yard line, setting up a Razorback cover and pushing the game over the closing line of 69. The UMass-BYU total was set at 40 for the first half, as the Cougars took a 7-0 lead into the second quarter. BYU would go on to score six touchdowns to end the half at 49-0.

Michigan and Indiana had a wide variety of closing numbers on the total from 51.5 to 54. With a score of 39-14, the game’s final three drives consisted of each had nine plays or more and made it deep into opponent territory, only to score zero points. Landing 53 was not the ideal number for bookmakers.

Meanwhile, South Florida contributed zero points after the first quarter against Memphis. The Bulls had six offensive drives in the second half and five that resulted in a three-and-out punt. A game total of 59 was just shy of the closing number 59.5.

Week 13 wackiness aside, let’s dive into our over/under projections for Week 14.

So how do pregame totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 14 projected point spreads are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 14

Notes on Totals for Week 14

  • The forecast calls rain during Tuesday #MACtion between Northern Illinois and Akron. Arkansas, Nebraska, Memphis, Marshall and Pittsburgh all have a precipitation chance greater than 50%.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph at UTEP, New Mexico, North Texas and Oklahoma State per Sports Insights
  • Snow flurries are projected for College Gameday’s trip to Minneapolis for Wisconsin and Minnesota.
  • East Carolina and Bowling Green have averaged more than 10 plays per game over their last three games versus the respective season average
  • Oregon State leads the country in red zone touchdown scoring percentage with 32 touchdowns and just two field goals. Utah State moved ahead of Old Dominion as the worst team in the nation in red zone touchdown scoring.

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