Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 8 College Football Games

Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 8 College Football Games article feature image
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Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Anthony Gordon

  • Collin Wilson uses his college football power ratings and more data to project every Week 8 over/under.
  • Use these numbers to get ahead of the betting market before totals are released market-wide on Monday and Tuesday.

One of the more underrated stat categories when betting totals is finishing drives and red zone points per attempt.

Straight from the five factors, finishing drives is a measure of points per trip inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. Red zone points per attempt takes a look at not only conversions, but if a team gets in the end zone over kicking field goals.

Those are two things I’m focusing on when handicapping totals this week and every week.

Circa Sports in Las Vegas did not release a total for a few Week 8 games, including Utah State and Nevada. Our projected total comes in around 50, but using red zone statistics there is reason to think an under could be worth a look.

The Wolfpack average 4.24 points per trip past the 20, while the Aggies average 3.32 points per trip. Utah State is the worst team in the country in points per red zone trip.

Some of the best teams at scoring the most points in the red zone include Appalachian State, Navy and Notre Dame. Surprisingly, both Illinois and Wisconsin rank in the top 8 in points scored per red zone trip.

The Wisconsin-Illinois total is projected at 53 in our totals, and was released at 53.5 by Circa Sports. As this number continues to tick down, it’s high on my list of overs to target this week.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 8 projected point spreads are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 8

Notes on Totals for Week 8

  • The early forecast calls for precipitation in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, while snow may develop for Wyoming. Expect Oregon-Washington and Colorado-Washington State to be wet.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph at Northwestern, Ball State and Wyoming, per Sports Insights.
  • Wake Forest now sits atop the plays per game leaderboard after a 668-yard showing in a loss to Louisville. The Demon Deacons had 102 snaps in 28 minutes of possession. A few teams are averaging more than their season average over the past three games, including UCLA, Penn State and Florida.
  • Kansas comes off a bye week after firing offensive coordinator Les Koenning and promoted Brent Dearmon to the role. As I said last week, Dearmon wrote a book on the evolution of the RPO. Bethel led NAIA in scoring last season, averaging 55 points per game.
  • Oklahoma has the highest differential in net yards per play at +4.4. Ohio State (+3.6), Alabama (+3.4) and Wisconsin (+3.4) round out the top.
  • UTSA is now at the bottom of the board in negative yards per play differential at -3.4. UConn jumped ahead of Bowling Green after the Falcons upset victory of Toledo.

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