Stanford-Arizona State Bet to Watch: How Will Cardinal Attack Sun Devils’ 3-3-5 Defense?

Stanford-Arizona State Betting Odds, Pick

• Odds: Stanford -2.5
• Over/Under: 57
• Time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Arizona State is just 3-3, but the Herm Edwards era is off to a pretty decent start.

All three of the Sun Devils' losses have come on the road by exactly seven points. They have one of the best special teams units in the country and a dynamic quarterback-receiver duo in Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry.

Stanford's College Football Playoff hopes unraveled before the Cardinal's bye week with blowout losses to Notre Dame and Utah, but David Shaw's team is still in the thick of the Pac-12 North race.

Bryce Love Questionable

For all the great rushing performances from Stanford running backs over the years, Bryce Love's outing against Arizona State last season set a school record for yardage: 301 on 25 carries with three scores.

Love has been nursing an ankle injury all year, and is considered questionable for this game. Stanford's rushing attack just hasn't been the same with him hampered — the Cardinal are averaging 3.1 yards per carry, which is tied for 126th out of 130 FBS teams. Even when he's played, he hasn't been 100%.

Key Matchup: Stanford WRs vs. ASU Secondary

We've talked about it all year — Stanford makes its way down the field in big chunks, often relying on jump balls to its mammoth wide receivers. That's not an efficient way to do things, which is why the Cardinal rank 107th in success rate but 10th in explosiveness.

But can Arizona State's cornerbacks contain 6-foot-3 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, 6-5 Kaden Smith and 6-2 Trenton Irwin? All three have at least 27 catches this season, and Arcega-Whiteside has eight touchdowns.

Arizona State is tied for 68th in the FBS at 7.2 yards per pass attempt allowed, but has one undersized corner in 5-10 Kobe Williams and ranks 110th in defensive back Havoc.

Look for Stanford to attack Williams with its monstrous pass catchers.

Bend Don't Break

A few weeks ago, I wrote about why teams with bend but-don't-break defenses tend to go under the total more often than not. Arizona State is a perfect example.

The Sun Devils rank first in the country in average starting field position on defense thanks to excellent punter Michael Sleep-Dalton. They rank 116th in success rate — how often an offense is on schedule to pick up a first down — but 10th in preventing big plays.

Essentially, ASU pins you deep, let's you move the ball in chunks, but doesn't give up big plays. The red-zone defense is decent, and that's been enough to hold every opponent to 28 points or fewer this season.

How Will Stanford Attack the 3-3-5?

San Diego State coach Rocky Long has used the 3-3-5 forever — three linemen, three linebackers, five defensive backs. ASU defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales brought that system to Tempe this offseason after spending 20 years on Long's staff.

The 3-3-5 usually helps smaller, undersized defenses with speed stop spread offenses.

We should be able to glean a little bit about what Stanford will do in this game, considering it already played San Diego State this year (and last year). Trouble is, what made the Cardinal offense go in those games was wildly different.

Last year, Gonzales' defense at SDSU had tons of success against Stanford, especially through the air in a 20-17 Aztecs win. This year, SDSU stopped the run, but gave up a few huge passing plays to Arcega-Whiteside.

What Does ASU's Offense Do Well?

The aforementioned Wilkins-Harry combo is outstanding, but it hasn't been as explosive as you think. Like he is with the defense, Edwards seems more interested in being efficient (44th in success rate, 93rd in explosiveness).

Wilkins has completed 63.8% percent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt — both steady, but not outstanding.

One of the biggest problems for ASU is that it's always in bad field position on offense (107th of 130 teams) because the defense always gives up yardage with its bend-don't-break philosophy.

Even if ASU doesn't allow points, the opposition pins the Sun Devils deep, and they then use their efficient offense and strong punting to flip the field.

Bet to Watch

Because of how I think this game will be played — Stanford needing to be more efficient since ASU will take away the big plays over the top — possessions will be at a premium. When possessions are at a premium, so are points.

Stanford plays at the slowest pace in the country, so if the Cardinal are moving the ball efficiently, it will be methodical. The same goes for ASU — it might move the ball, but it won't be with huge plays.

This total opened 51 and got bet up to 57, but that's too high considering the game script I'm expecting. I'm taking the under.

Bonus Prop!

I couldn't leave you hanging without a team to root for in this standalone Thursday game, right? Well, I'll give you two teams for which to root.

Stanford has been bad in the first half all season. Is there something to that, or is it randomness?

My best guess is Stanford doesn't fully unleash its big passing-play arsenal until the second half due to fear of turnovers in the first. No need to chuck the ball up non-stop until you know you need to, right?

Stanford has been outscored, 13.6 to 11.3 on average, in the first half this season, surrendering at least 21 points in its last three games. In the second half and overtime, the Cardinal are outscoring opponents 14.3 to 8.8.

Shaw is one of the best coaches in the country; Edwards has exceeded expectations, but he was 26-36-2 lifetime against the second-half spread as an NFL coach (that was 10-plus years ago, so take from that what you will).

With the coaching advantage, I'll lay a little on a double result of Arizona State-Stanford. This means Arizona State will be leading at halftime, but Stanford will win the game, and it should pay about 7-1.

Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.