NCAA Baseball Picks, Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Check out more college baseball content on our NCAA Baseball page. | ||
I'm not lying — I woke up at 6 a.m. today with no alarm like a kid on Christmas morning, because it's finally NCAA Baseball Regionals weekend. There is no better way to soak in all the action on the diamond than with my college baseball best bets.
Fortunately, many of the angles I identified in my Regionals preview were spot on in the market. And with many of the starting pitchers announced, we can dive deeper into some of my favorite sides and totals for the first day of Regional play.
So, let's dive into my college baseball picks and NCAA Regionals predictions for the games on Friday, May 30.
Note: While parlaying these picks is not our official recommendation, we've put together an easy way to do so below.
East Tennessee State vs Louisville Best Bet
We're starting off hot with one of the top offensive teams in the country, the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. The Bucs can flat out rake, coming into the Nashville Regional ranked fourth in OPS, 16th in batting average and 18th in wRC+
Now, this lineup has a tough task in front of them in Louisville ace Patrick Forbes, but Forbes has struggled with command at times this season and is a pitcher who relies heavily on strikeouts.
He's likely to generate a high pitch count and not go deep into this game, and that's when the Bucs can really strike. The Cardinals' bullpen is extremely vulnerable and due for regression. They hold a collective ERA of 6.07 and an xFIP of 6.62.
On the other side of this matchup, Carter Fink takes the mound for ETSU. Fink is not an overpowering pitcher, relying on command and soft contact for success. Luckily for him, the Cardinals ended the season making a ton of soft contact, as they ranked 235th in wOBA over their last 10 games.
Behind Fink, the Buccaneers' bullpen is stellar, ranking 24th in ERA and 17th in WHIP nationally.
If ETSU can keep this one close while Forbes is on the mound, we should see it rally and steal this one after he departs.
Pick: ETSU ML +102
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Western Kentucky vs Georgia Tech Best Bet
This is another angle from my Regionals preview that came to fruition. We're backing another heavy-hitting underdog in the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Now, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets can rake as well, but the Hilltoppers may have the edge on the mound here.
Western Kentucky hands the ball to ace Drew Whalen, who posted a 3.17 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Whalen is a high upside arm who's backed up by an even better bullpen. The WKU 'pen has been one of the best in the country, ranking second in ERA and fifth in WHIP.
On top of all that, Whalen and company show no signs of regression and are more than ready to battle the Yellow Jackets' bats.
However, the same can't be said about Georgia Tech starter Tate McKee.
McKee is an enigma who has tremendous stuff, but his lack of command has been apparent in his most recent outings. Over McKee's last three starts, he has a 9.24 ERA, a 2.29 WHIP and a walk per nine rate of 7.8.
The Yellow Jackets do have a Reliever of the Year candidate in Mason Patel to put out any fires, but if the damage is done early against McKee, every run will be insurance for us because the best way to back the Hilltoppers is on the run line.
Pick: Western Kentucky +1.5 (-130)
Tennessee vs Miami (OH) Best Bet
Many of the Regional hosts have the opportunity to pitch off, which means they opt to save their ace for the second game on Saturday against a more formidable opponent.
About half of the hosts are pitching off, and you would think that of all the aces, Liam Doyle wouldn't be one of the pitchers taking the mound today — but that's not the case.
The Vols are giving Doyle the ball today against Miami (OH). To put it simply, the RedHawks are in trouble.
Doyle was arguably the best pitcher in the country, holding a 3.04 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while averaging over 15 strikeouts per nine innings.
What's mind-boggling is that he's due to be even better with his xFIP at 2.56 and his SIERA at 1.18. I highlighted in the Knoxville Regional preview that Miami's pitching is a major issue with a staff ERA of 6.37.
Doyle should get plenty of run support, as the Vols also boast one of the best lineups in the country, ranking fourth in wRC+ and seventh in OPS. Back them to cover the run line in a dominant victory.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (-110)
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Oregon vs Utah Valley Best Bet
If you read my Eugene Regional preview, you'd know there's quite a discrepancy between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Valley Wolverines.
Oregon is coming off one of the best seasons in program history after dominating in its inaugural Big Ten campaign. The Ducks are one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, ranking 21st in wRC+ and 15th in team ERA.
While neither the Ducks nor the Wolverines have announced a starting pitcher for this matchup, it's safe to say the Ducks have a clear advantage, as Utah Valley had a staff ERA of 6.39.
The Wolverines are a team with a ton of heart. They're in the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in school history and pulled off several upsets in the WAC Tournament to get here.
However, they got an extremely tough draw in this region, and we should see the Ducks mash in their opener in front of their home crowd.
Back to Oregon to cover the run line.
Pick: Oregon -4.5 (-125)
