Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Herbert
Stanford at Oregon Betting Odds
- Odds: Stanford -2.5
- Over/Under: 56
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ABC
>> All odds as of 7 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Stanford has long been a thorn in Oregon’s side, especially in the Chip Kelly era. The Cardinal ended the Ducks’ national title hopes in both 2012 and 2013 in one-score games.
Recently, they’ve been more than just a spoiler. Last year’s 49-7 Stanford win was the largest margin of victory ever in this series. And over the last two years, Stanford has won by a combined score of 101-34.
Market Moves for Stanford-Oregon
Oregon opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Pinnacle, but is now listed at +2 as 66% of bets and 79% of dollars are behind the Cardinal.
The total has been nudged up to 57.5 after opening at 56 as 56% of bettors are on the over.
Slow it Down
So far this season, Oregon is playing at the fifth-fastest adjusted pace in the nation. Stanford’s pace is the slowest in all of FBS.
If the Cardinal can dictate the pace, look for the game to go under, and vice versa.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
In matchups of top 25 conference foes, the favorite is 257-212-11 (55%) ATS since 2005.
By Evan Abrams
Since it missed a bowl in 2004, Oregon as a ranked home team went 32-21-3 ATS (+8.5 units; fourth-most profitable FBS team in the spot) all the way through 2014.
Since the start of 2015, Oregon is 1-9 ATS as a ranked home team, by far the least profitable FBS squad in that span.
Oregon has one of the worst finishing defenses in the country. It’s allowed 5.55 points per trip inside the 40-yard line, which ranks 118th of 130 FBS teams.
However, Oregon’s offense finished third in the nation last season in finishing drives. That will be critical against a Stanford team that leads the nation in points per game allowed (7.7) but is giving up 301 yards per game (23rd in nation).
Oregon can also defend the run without having to stack the box. The Ducks are allowing only 2.0 yards per carry this season (fifth nationally). You could say the Ducks haven’t played anyone, which would be true — however, they finished in the top 25 in that same category last year
Stanford has also allowed way too many TFLs this year, which has contributed to its subpar 3.8 yards per rush (tied for 99th in the country). That’s something Oregon excels at, as it finished with 7.2 tackles per game last season (top 25 in nation).
Bet to Watch for Stanford-Oregon
By Ken Barkley
One of the biggest unit changes through three weeks has been to Stanford’s defense. We all wondered what happened last year, because the team still had a lot of talent but its on-field performance was mysteriously mediocre.
Granted the Cardinal have only really faced San Diego State and USC, but the early signs are very encouraging that the unit is good, if not great, and much more like Cardinal defenses of old.
I question whether Oregon can score enough to win this game. The wild thing is through three weeks, we really don’t have any idea what the Ducks are because their spreads in those three games were -34, -49.5 and -41.
It’s like they just played a preseason and now we finally get to see the results. One thing that stood out in those games was against atrocious defenses, Justin Herbert’s accuracy was unimpressive.
Offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo and head coach Mario Cristobal hinted that they were designing a new offensive approach in the offseason that was the best of each of their philosophies, but Arroyo’s lack of a track record, to me, leaves the door open that this side of the ball may just be a mess. And these three games support that narrative.
With Stanford’s desire to play a very slow, deliberate game, I think the Cardinal are going to control the tempo here, because I don’t think Oregon is likely to have long, sustained drives given what we’ve seen thus far.
I think you’re going to see a heavy dose of Bryce Love and power formations, and I think this total is a little too high considering all the evidence we have from both teams. I will be playing the under at 56.
The Pick: Under